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Laymen look at the 40 years of development, talk about economic recession and consumption | Miles of words

author:Miles of words, that Wang Qixi
Laymen look at the 40 years of development, talk about economic recession and consumption | Miles of words
Laymen look at the 40 years of development, talk about economic recession and consumption | Miles of words

Consumption digital refined strategic analysis classroom and application center

There is a lot of words in the numbers, here are the miles of words, the frontier of scientific decision-making research on microeconomy and market issues in the FMCG industry, I am Wang Qixi. Data makes for better strategies, and strategy for better brands. "Counting Miles" "Wang Teaching Field", the consumption digital refined strategic analysis classroom is openly recruiting audiences, the community is open for free, welcome to experience and receive complete information! "

Why write this article

This article is arguably the most important publication of the year.

Although our area of expertise focuses on solving some industry-specific business strategy problems, from the beginning, we did not intend to be an ordinary, unnovel, just a business organization; This is from the heart and represents my personal hobby. I've been interested in solving complex problems since a long time ago and have always scoffed at traditional methods, and frankly, I enjoy the process of bringing together and reshaping all kinds of things, and I am convinced that these processes will create some new value; Just like in the 30s, statistics was born because of the needs of national accounts, when it was not statisticians who participated in the development of statistical tools and indicators, and there were no statisticians at that time, their identities may be philosophers, mathematicians, economists or politicians, but with the deepening of accounting work, statistics gradually developed into an independent discipline that integrates complex mathematics, probability theory, sampling and accounting methods.

In my strategic work, I used exactly the same thinking to do this craft. So in the research materials we disclose, you should often see ideas and methods in economics, sociology, biology and even political science. I see cross-cutting as a guideline, "The accounts between economic research, financial statements and management statements are not agreed, is profit in management statement and profit in financial statement a profit?" Is there a corresponding indicator for this profit in the field of economic research? If so, what is it, and if not, do we know what it means? How can these values be used for specific purposes? Asking such a question is a habit and a daily routine for me. I don't mean that I've come up with any grand and complete new strategic map so far, and this business is just the beginning for me.

"What's wrong with our economy?" This is the question I've heard the most lately.

Many people do not understand the economy, and when the market is booming, many people think that the economy is the curtain of the stage, they are the actors on the stage, and the singing and dancing are all on their own, and the curtain is just a flower on the cake to set the atmosphere. Until you can't make ends meet, open source is powerless, and you can't throttle, you will tactfully ask: "What happened to our economy?" At this time, they still did not understand the economy, but fortunately they admitted that the economy was related to them.

Every income, every individual, and every enterprise is inseparable from the economy and even the world. This is why it is imperative to take an economic perspective when talking about business management and strategy. In these special, sensitive, and even turbulent times, if we want to leave something for future generations, if we want our company to be legacy, if we want to preserve our way of life and defend our right to drink two or three cups of coffee a day, we can't rest on our laurels or just use old ways to solve problems.

So, by putting almost all of our focus on recession and how to avoid or reduce losses, we hope to shed light on the current situation, where it came from, how it developed, where it leads, what are the ways to avoid the disadvantages, and guide us to a sustainable concept of profitability and a proven method.

This article, starting from these questions, thoughts and visions, tries to take you to understand economic cause and effect from a broader perspective; We are honored to have you and your business inspired and translated into encouraging business decisions.

Given that Miles is still a highly relevant institution to the consumer industry, our analysis does not yet cover all aspects of the domestic economy, and if it is biased, we ask for the forgiveness of experts in other fields. In this article, we will propose a new type of recession and explain its past and present life from the perspective of development. Given the space, I can't show all the research data related to it, and this contextual explanation is also based on our limited knowledge and certain assumptions, and some milestones that are subjectively considered unimportant are not shown in the story line. In this article, we discuss only some of the instruments of international trade and domestic finance, and do not cover the influence of political and monetary policies exerted exerted broadly. When dividing the development cycle, in order to facilitate the reader's memory, there may be slight discrepancies with the exact time (for example, we describe the beginning of the real estate cycle by defining its start time in 2000, but to be precise, this cycle began in 98 housing reforms).

Before and after the recession

Our generations have hardly experienced a recession, but we must have heard of financial storms, and sometimes people equate a short economic depression after a financial storm with a recession, but to be precise, they are related to each other and affect each other, but they are by no means the same thing.

There have been several famous recessions in Western history, Germany after World War I, the United States in the 30s, Japan in the 90s, and Greece in 2010, these well-known recessions usually start with the collapse of the price of certain large classes of assets (such as stocks) as the trigger, triggering a series of debt defaults, and finally soaring unemployment, currency depreciation, and people's livelihood. The different approaches of those in power to the crisis will determine the future of these countries, some of which will move into the quagmire of war, some of which will prosper, some of which will be half-dead, and some of which will even go bankrupt.

For nearly a century, economists have debated recessions mostly focused on relief measures after disasters. Keynesian and Austrian polemics moved from the academy to the parliament, from papers to bills; But few scholars have paid attention to whether we can prevent crises before they occur. To some extent, a company's business strategy should play a similar role, allowing a company to avoid crises to a large extent, rather than waiting for an open flame to enter the field of view and then rush to find firefighters. But it is a pity that most professional managers and a few entrepreneurs are not only confident in their own business, but also quite satisfied with the honor and story of becoming a "firefighting hero". At this time, no one cared about what caused the fire, but one after another celebrated that someone had extinguished the fire. In this way, the vision of economists with a full stomach will not be much better than that of a passerby.

A real hero is one who does everything right, so there is no story.

Japanese-American economist Chaoming Koo, a Keynesian who has written several books on the positive role of fiscal policy in Japan's recession, and who named the crisis of the '90s "balance sheet recession," made it clear in a recent interview that we are on the verge of entering a "balance sheet recession."

"Balance sheet recession" roughly means that when an asset bubble bursts, the asset-side value of a company's balance sheet shrinks sharply, while debt remains the same. This situation hindered the ability of enterprises to use their assets to obtain further credit, left them with only money to pay off debts, and hindered the development of productive forces, which constituted Japan's lost 30 years.

Although "balance sheet recession" still describes the outcome of the collapse of the financial system, and I do not agree with Koo's judgment about the future, it does not prevent me from drawing inspiration from it. And what I've been concerned about is, assuming we do face a recession, what exactly is causing this?

So I coined a new concept to describe what I saw as the great challenges facing the domestic economy, calling them "income statement recession."

Since I am an economics layman (at most with some amateur research), unlike the concept of "balance sheet recession", "income statement recession" does not explain the problem from the perspective of traditional economics, but focuses more on the process of risk accumulation before a recession occurs, and the mechanism that triggers the crisis.

The income statement declines

When you see the 5 words "income statement recession", what comes to your intuitive mind?

That's right, the answer that comes to your head is exactly the same as what I'm going to say: our whole society can't make money, we lack profit! My basic definition of "income statement recession" is: homogeneous oversupply in the environment of price bubble of production factors, through the competitive depreciation of commodities destroys the income statement of the residential sector, causing a large number of enterprises to cut jobs in order to maintain profits, further destroying consumption capacity and expectations, forming a negative spiral, resulting in a recession model caused by insufficient profits.

In fact, this definition only describes a dilemma that we may encounter today, and does not elaborate on how homogenization occurs, how oversupply occurs, and how factor price bubbles arise at the cost of production.

Laymen look at the 40 years of development, talk about economic recession and consumption | Miles of words

A simple formula that is not only applicable to any company in the world, but also to the national balance of payments, is the same and vivid principle.

It's just that at the national level, "income" is usually not money, but some credit medium, and the central bank prints the renminbi by collecting credit medium (collateral). The main credit mediums include foreign exchange flowing into the country, or various bonds. These newly produced banknotes, together with all the wealth that exists in society, are equivalent to the "income" of a country.

Since we have long been a trade surplus country, the amount of foreign exchange absorbed determines the level of "income" to a certain extent, and trade, FDI (foreign direct investment) and private equity investment scale largely dominate this part.

The growth of the domestic debt system also constructs to a certain extent the level of domestic demand "income", and how much money there is in the market corresponds to how much debt; Since the other side of local government bonds (formerly urban investment bonds) is real estate, generally speaking, the rapid growth of local government bonds means the rapid expansion of money, which means that there is more "income".

It is very difficult to estimate the "cost" of a country. The cost of a company is simply the money spent to produce it, but from the perspective of the state, every time a person spends 10 yuan, one person must receive 10 yuan. This makes this "cost" difficult to define. But we can think about this from another angle, if the factors of production used for operations are particularly expensive, then the cost to both the company and the state is in a sense high.

To start and run a company, you first have to rent (or buy) an office, recruit the right staff, and sell them to customers by purchasing various means of production, which may be desks, chairs, computers, notebooks, production lines, raw materials to form goods, and if necessary, you may also need to do some advertising.

The disorderly expansion of real estate (behind local government debt) in the country is a well-known thing; The changes in marketing spending and prices of enterprises (nationwide) do not have a public and authoritative statistical result as a reference, so in the process of constructing the development of the "income statement recession" in several miles, we do not include them in the observation of income items (local government debt expansion level) and cost items (marketing expense price level), respectively, but will still add our judgment (hypothesis) to the subsequent discussion.

I believe that through the previous introduction, you should have established the basic framework of how to use the perspective of an "income statement" to view the current economic situation in China; In the above figure, green represents a good situation (large scale), red represents a crisis (high price), since these parameters cannot be simply converted and counted between each other, we only draw conclusions based on the logic of trend judgment.

In fact, after 40 years of development, the domestic economy is facing a situation of "income" reduction, "cost" increase, and insufficient "profit".

China's economic narrative

The development of everything is the result of environmental achievements, in other words, external factors often play a decisive role. This principle basically applies to both the natural disciplines and the humanities, and naturally includes the economic field.

This does not mean that China's internal situation is not important, but that only when the internal situation is adapted to the external stimulus can the economy develop rapidly.

Laymen look at the 40 years of development, talk about economic recession and consumption | Miles of words

In the traditional understanding, foreign trade, investment and consumption are called the "troika", driving the economy forward at full speed; Over the past 40 years, the booming domestic economy has been able to tease out several clearer lines in which these cycles and milestones have shaped almost the fastest boom and growth in human history.

But speed itself brings problems, or problems.

If you ask some economic veterans today what are the fundamentals of the Chinese economy, I believe that at least half of them will tell you that it is real estate. But in my opinion, China's economic fundamentals have always been foreign trade, and I am convinced of that. Real estate, as part of urbanization, did drive the surrounding industries by leaps and bounds in a specific time and space, but frankly, after 2010 (or even earlier), real estate as a whole did little good except create a monetary bubble, raise the price level, create financial chaos, and transfer debt leverage to individuals in the residential sector. So, at least personally, I have very big doubts about the economic consequences of land finance.

Compared with foreign trade, real estate, at least in the statistical sense, the foreign investment we accept can be said to be a small witch, only around 2015, the investment fever stood in the forefront, in 2016 alone, the scale of private equity investment including foreign capital components was about trillions of dollars. But this grand scene was quickly stolen by trade frictions, and after 2019, the scale of both private equity and FDI has shrunk at a rapid rate.

A company's safety net should be those with scale and long streams; The same is true for a country, so foreign trade is always our fundamentals; Many well-known academics occasionally confuse this, leading the market to believe that since the beginning of the "Washington Consensus", the Western world is trying to prevent our manufacturing industry from entering a comprehensive modernization, thus finding a pretext for the Sino-US trade war and the global dismantling. But I want to say that this assessment is biased and unfair, the Western world has never stopped our exports, and the focus of our dispute with the Western world has never been whether to buy our products, but as a supply chain country fully into industrial modernization after the overcapacity and energy consumption will have a global impact can not be agreed. It is this misunderstanding, at least on the surface, that has led to our misunderstanding of the current international trade landscape and ushered in a new prelude to investment and consumption in the 21st century.

For a country with a trade surplus, absorbing foreign exchange as collateral, printing renminbi and generating savings is the first step towards prosperity. But how to dispose of savings is an investment issue. As we can see, after the 98 housing reform, the whole society began to turn to real estate and surrounding industries, because real estate has excellent guarantee properties, whether it is the asset side or the capital side is extremely easy to achieve virtual expansion, overnight, wealth into thousands of households. We lived on the flat floor adjacent to the scenery along the Suzhou Creek, used LV's speedy bags, ate Din Tai Feng's xiaolongbao for more than 50 yuan per guest and was willing to pay 10% service fee. But few people know that these good things are all in your mortgage. Because as much money as there is, there is as much debt.

Before 2010, China's economic development depended on several important factors and dividends:

(1) Industrial system under the wave of urbanization (whether we borrow or receive foreign investment)

(2) The industrial system creates the possibility of mass manufacturing and export

(3) A large number of labor and labor price depressions that have not yet been activated

(4) Trade orders brought about by the Western world's demand to control inflation and enhance the global competitiveness of enterprises

I did not use real estate as the basis or dividend of China's economic development before 2010, although many people do not see it that way in the sense of GDP statistics. The reason is that real estate itself does not carry any dividends, if it has to be said, then the only benefit of developing real estate may be its own credit attribute, which gives real estate the capital to expand virtually. It is true that the development of real estate has brought more cash to the whole society, but we should not forget that there is as much debt as there is currency, and these debts are not evenly distributed in the process of transaction circulation, but concentrated at the poles of local governments and residential sectors. Many people feel rich, but are unaware that the wealth they are acquiring is the result of the real estate debt multiplier effect and the issuance of additional money.

The irrational expectations and surpluses of real estate have greatly increased commodity prices, labor prices and asset prices, and at the same time transformed real estate itself into a class of consumer goods, losing the function of the house itself. Once you take out a mortgage, you're essentially saddling a consumer loan in disguise, and it's the sum of those loans that makes all the products and services in the market go up in price.

If we go back to 2000, if society's savings had not gone too far to real estate, what would we be like now?

History, it cannot be assumed.

In the decade from 2000 to 2010, globalization was still ongoing, and China's continuous economic and trade expansion after joining the WTO, coupled with the sky-high amount of money created by real estate, made GDP growth often exceed double digits, reaching a staggering 14.2% in 2007. Huge currency, huge assets, huge market, huge population, huge consumption power met the inflection point of technology at the application layer, and for a time, foreign capital bet wildly. In 2009, the iPhone 3G opened a wave of full popularity of domestic smartphones, and in just 5 years, Apple's annual sales of mobile phones in China exceeded 50 million units. This little device connects everyone and weaves a net, and its name is Mobile Internet.

So, Tmall came, Douyin came, Didi came, Meituan came, Ctrip came. These apps are quickly growing bigger and stronger with the dividends of smartphone penetration, and the capital is the roller and icebreaker behind them. This may contain a huge amount of foreign investment.

I don't know how the spread of smartphones, mobile internet and mobile apps will affect other industries, but they have turned consumption upside down. On the one hand, the existence of the platform is about equal to the existence of consumers across the country, consumer goods can reach a large number of consumers by opening a flagship store, and the efficiency of customer acquisition is extremely increased, eliminating the trouble of brands needing to open store counters one by one, which also greatly reduces the threshold for consumer goods entrepreneurship. On the other hand, a large amount of banknotes are invested and sent to the market, they become bonuses for sales personnel, high salaries for IT practitioners, incentives for professional managers, and for a while people's pockets are further "generous", and improved consumer demand follows.

Before there was the cost reform of the consumer goods business paradigm, and then there was a consumption carnival created by a large number of investments, this song and harmony wrote the familiar 2010-2020 year.

I summarize the foundation and dividends of this decade's development as:

(1) The continuous investment of foreign trade surplus in real estate virtualization expansion exaggerates the economic accounting results, which have become the main reason to attract further foreign investment

(2) Smart phones, mobile Internet, huge consumer population, and good consumption expectations make foreign investment targeted

(3) Mobile applications (especially e-commerce) lowered the threshold for consumer goods operation in the early stage, resulting in an increase in investment in consumer goods and creating a large supply that met the market demand at that time

After 2020, we seem to feel that every winter is getting colder, and we all think that the three-year disaster changed our lives today.

But is that really the case?

The causes and development context of economic reality

Next, I will use a structured description to thoroughly sort out the model of China's economic development in the past 40 years, and point out the causes and consequences of the switching of different economic engines in the whole process, as well as the potential risks and costs. Please forgive me that the image frame that appears in this section does not contain everything I will describe and may differ slightly from my description.

Laymen look at the 40 years of development, talk about economic recession and consumption | Miles of words

Manufacturing cycle (1985-2000)

(1) There is an intrinsic driving force for economic system reform in China, and a large number of working people have returned from the countryside to the towns, forming the basis for industrialization

(2) Low commodity prices, assets, labor prices and a certain degree of industrialization form the basis for foreign investment in China's processing industry

(3) Foreign investment has accelerated the penetration of industrialized technology in China, and while forming full employment, productivity has been rapidly improved, a large number of commodity exports have formed a large amount of foreign exchange earnings, and the initial expansion of the economy has been achieved

Real Estate Cycle (2000-2010)

(1) After the 98 housing reform, a large number of local governments widely used land finance tools, issued bonds for infrastructure construction, and sold industrial land at low prices to attract investment, promote urbanization and form tax revenues; At the same time, commercial and residential land was sold at a high price, and the tax was consolidated to repay the debt

(2) A large number of residential sectors (especially private individuals) began to participate in real estate investment, and real estate began to expand virtually in a short period of time

(3) The expansion of real estate assets is accompanied by the simultaneous expansion of a large number of debts, which generate fixed financial costs, that is, real estate operators (such as real estate developers, property tenants, secondary landlords, etc.) in a broad sense are locked in prices (house prices or rents must be maintained in a high circulation state, and the price must not fall), if the price falls, there will be a possibility of debt default

(4) The real estate capital end produces virtual expansion in the form of securities collateral, and due to the expected prosperity of the industry, terminal high-interest rate products continue to attract funds into the real estate industry

(5) The dual currency multiplier effect of asset side and capital side, real estate return expectations, capital return expectations and economic development expectations push up asset prices, commodity prices and labor prices

Global Trade Cycle (2010-2015)

(1) The impact of the real estate cycle on prices, coupled with the decline in the number of working-age population, has led to a gradual increase in labor prices

(2) The United States implemented four rounds of quantitative easing in response to the subprime mortgage crisis, resulting in global inflation, and China also implemented a 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus during the same period, further pushing up asset prices, commodity prices and labor prices

(3) Global inflation has led to an increase in the price of some raw materials, and the combination of factors such as high domestic labor prices has weakened the advantage of foreign trade exports

(4) The government maintains its dominant position in trade mainly through export tax subsidies, the internationalization of the renminbi and the reduction of purchases of U.S. debt

Internet Cycle (2010-2015)

(1) The virtual expansion brought about by foreign trade and real estate has created strong growth at the macro level, forming good expectations for foreign investment

(2) The rapid penetration of smartphones has brought about the possibility of a boom in mobile Internet and applications, and these possibilities have become specific targets for attracting capital (whether foreign or domestic) investment

(3) The influx of capital has created a new infrastructure for brand operation in the retail cycle, changed the cost structure of consumer goods operation, and lowered the operating threshold of the consumer goods industry

(4) The large amount of capital investment (especially foreign capital) increases the money in the market, which further increases the cost of various factors; Rising costs tend to create more improved consumption expectations in the residential sector, and more consumption generated by private individuals, including real estate and general consumer goods

Retail Cycle (2015-2020)

(1) With the gradual improvement of consumer infrastructure (e-commerce platform) and the increasing scale of user penetration, capital has shifted from application investment to consumer goods investment

(2) The dual effect of the opening up of domestic foreign investment policies and the depreciation of the renminbi has attracted more foreign capital into the country, which will further push up the prices of assets, commodities and labor

(3) A large number of consumer goods companies entered the market (especially e-commerce), pushing up marketing (traffic) expenses, and the rising prices of production factors made corporate profits begin to decline

(4) On the one hand, in order to achieve rapid results, on the other hand, in order to make up for the loss of profits, enterprises generally reduce the investment in research and development expenses

(5) The lack of R&D investment makes the general consumer goods in the market do not have more advanced productivity, can not resist the risk of homogeneous oversupply, and most companies cannot manufacture differentiated or higher quality products

Laymen look at the 40 years of development, talk about economic recession and consumption | Miles of words

Pre-pandemic cycle (-2019)

(1) China and the United States launched a formal trade war due to trade fairness and exchange rate issues, and some domestic low-end manufacturing industries were the first to be impacted

(2) These manufacturing players first entered Pinduoduo, and then entered Douyin, forming a basic plate for low-priced e-commerce sales in China

Pandemic Cycle (2020-2022)

(1) The performance of traditional e-commerce (orthodox brand cluster) has been affected to a certain extent, in order to find new increments, at the cost of price for scale, began to try to enter Douyin/Pinduoduo, as well as a large number of live broadcast e-commerce business

(2) In order to seek a higher premium, manufacturing players began to take the branding route, relying on the advantages of integrating production and marketing to launch a price war with orthodox brand clusters

(3) The orthodox brand cluster and manufacturing players launched the mutual penetration of channels, and the market appeared a large-scale homogeneous oversupply, in order to protect their respective interests, the two sides immediately launched a fierce price war

(4) The price war further compresses corporate profits, so that some enterprises begin to face survival problems, resulting in unemployment

Post-pandemic cycle (2023-)

(1) Poor trade further aggravates backward production capacity inward, catalyzes more serious homogenization oversupply and price wars, such a situation will further damage the corporate income statement, enterprises in order to survive, priority to retain high expenses (marketing expenses) to at least obtain turnover and turnover, on the contrary, adopt more aggressive cost optimization strategies, resulting in more unemployment

(2) More unemployment further reduces the overall ability to consume, and most consumer groups (at least a large part of the urban population) are locked in due to rigid coping (financial costs generated by housing loans), which is more price-sensitive, contributing to the further escalation of the price war, forming a negative strengthening cycle of profit reduction and unemployment increase

Look at the present moment in the customer

Asmilating, understanding, and discussing economic issues is so difficult that even the world's most intelligent economists dare to claim to know the economy in its entirety. The river next to a community is polluted with wastewater, which can cause certain diseases in the surrounding population, and medical care and governance will be actually recorded and become part of GDP, which may be equal to the several schools we invested in a poor mountainous area, or it may be equal to the hospitality and meeting expenses of a large public company for a year. In fact, when evaluating the economy, we can hardly distinguish between which increases are investment, which are governance, and which are consumption or even waste.

Similarly, it is as challenging to treat economic problems rationally, objectively and neutrally, and it will not be much easier than actually solving economic problems themselves. At the time of writing, we already have a comparable awe. Everyone needs to be in awe of the current economic situation, which allows us to face risks more cautiously and put away our masts and be prepared before the storm hits.

We coined the concept of an income statement recession, which, while literally related to a balance sheet recession, points in two directions to the world. The enormous economic challenges we face today can be seen as a reflection on the pre-modernization of manufacturing, where a large surplus will destroy almost all companies' income statements, which in turn will generate a steady stream of unemployment and severely damage the ability of consumption to repair itself. We should also reflect on the benefits brought to us by land finance, and what kind of price do we pay. Today, this is very expensive because it is based on the assumption that the economy is sustainable. If we are to continue to rely on real estate, we must demand that everyone in society be able to afford increasingly expensive rents and housing prices. In a sense, housing loans have evolved into a kind of social consumer loans, which allow us to enjoy more expensive material benefits. Finally, history teaches us a lesson about how to invest. Objectively speaking, we have had no shortage of investment in the past 40 years, but we have lacked attention to areas other than manufacturing. The unemployment and job transfer problems caused by the ultra-high efficiency of advanced manufacturing are not only plaguing our country, but its haze is global, not to mention that there is little solution to oversupply. Especially in the past 10 years, whether it is the Internet or the consumer industry, traffic has been regarded as the guideline. Buying traffic is no different from backing up on loans and hoarding houses, and extravagant consumption, which is not beneficial to the evolution and change of productivity except for blowing up GMV bubbles. For this, you struggling bosses, unemployed partners, you have a historical responsibility. The inevitable consequence of excessive "consumption", whether by individuals or companies, is a downward shift in debt, an upward shift in profits, and finally an inevitable extreme polarization.

Two days ago, the Ministry of Finance issued a low-key article saying that China and the United States had established an economic and financial working group, and many people were relieved to see this news, and many people said that this was a major benefit. Indeed, to some extent. But the vast majority of people do not understand that China's economic problems are no longer China's economic problems, and they always think that China's economic problems are China's economic problems. It's as if they buy in business without realizing that if everyone does this, the economy will be overwhelmed.

In 1945, Oppenheimer detonated the first atomic bomb in human history, and Oppenheimer himself claimed that he became the Grim Reaper. As everyone knows, in the economic history of mankind, we have long been exposed to the mutual threat of lethal weapons, just like nuclear deterrence, in this game, it is best for anyone not to take chances.

Our main goal in writing this article is to help you build the ability to discern and use this ability to see and evaluate more closely the facts about anything we value in life, whether it is your job, your business, your interests, or your economy. Similarly, we do not think that there are so many divisions in reality, and the discussion of economic issues can not be limited to the scope of economic knowledge, as we present in this article clumsy content, from the perspective of industry can also explore the principles and processes of economic occurrence, although we still lack a lot of content discussion, such as the impact of interest rates and reserves on currencies, the impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East on the global economy, and so on.

In the practice of history and the future, we will always emphasize the idea and power of interdisciplinary integration to solve business problems, and economic discussion is only one of these moments, and it is a very beautiful moment.

"Miles is a research institute on microeconomics and market issues in the FMCG industry, which is committed to improving the analytical thinking and execution ability of market practitioners by integrating research ideas and tools from multiple disciplines, such as philosophy, economics, biology, operations research, statistics, strategy, marketing and operation, etc., and providing brands with various business strategy solutions! "

Laymen look at the 40 years of development, talk about economic recession and consumption | Miles of words

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It provides principle support for microeconomic and market issues in the FMCG industry, and focuses on providing better ideas and tools for the analysis of industry practitioners to achieve scientific and effective strategic decisions. "Counting Miles" "Wang Teaching Field", the consumption digital refined strategic analysis classroom is openly recruiting audiences, the community is open for free, welcome to experience and receive complete information! "

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