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India has a particularly special presence in the global strategy of the United States.
Among America's many younger brothers, India seems out of place. For example, in the face of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, India is not interested in sanctioning Russia, and does not even want to stand with the United States.
Some say India's actions have cracked America's proud military hegemony.
On the other hand, India and the United States have a close and inseparable relationship. For a time, India-US relations seemed to be a fog and quite confusing.
What is the real relationship between India and the United States? What are the roots of anti-Americanism in India? How strong is India to challenge US hegemony?
To answer these questions, we can also start with the positioning of India.
Left and right: Swinging India
With the rise of the world's emerging economies, America's dominance in many areas is gradually losing. In 2008, the world suffered a financial crisis, and the United States faced the fate of decline.
In order to restore all this and return the country to the top, the United States has come up with a completely new concept: the globally prosperous nation.
India is one of them, which is the foundation of India-US relations in recent years.
The so-called "global swing states" actually correspond to the "swing states" of the US election. In the U.S. election, the political position of some states is not fixed. Voters in these states either support Democrats or turn Republican.
Swing states have great energy and can even directly affect election results, so they have become a "battlefield" for bipartisan contention.
Correspondingly, the international community also has a group of countries that oscillate between "pro-American" and "anti-American". The United States believes that the support of these countries is critical and must be actively sought.
In 2012, the United States released its first official report, listing India, Brazil, Turkey, and Indonesia as "countries of global change" and formulating a series of development strategies.
Of the four countries, India is the main coveted target of the United States.
From an economic point of view, India's economy is developing rapidly, the potential is huge, and the market is yet to be developed.
From 2000 to 2011, India's economy grew at an annual rate of more than 7%, which is strong and growing at an astonishing rate. As the economy rises, people's purchasing power naturally skyrockets, even surpassing that of Japan.
Not only that, but the high-tech industry is also India's strong point. Whether it is aviation or electronic information, India is everywhere.
When it comes to politics, India is a good courtship target.
Although India is still far from a global power, its regional influence cannot be ignored. India is the first country in the subcontinent and can rule South Asia. More importantly, India is politically ambitious and has never given up on dreams of becoming a superpower.
Desire means weakness and room for negotiation. Obviously, India is not monolithic, but a goal that can be actively pursued.
From the perspective of the United States, India also plays an important role in containing China's rise. Therefore, the United States promised India that it would strengthen its voice in Asia.
India readily agrees.
In 2010, Obama called India "an important partner of the 21st century." During the Indian Prime Minister's visit to the United States, Obama even mentioned the word "unnecessary", which significantly strengthened India's position in the US global strategy. After Modi came to power, he also actively changed his foreign policy to allow India to further engage with the United States.
India-US relations seem to have entered a golden honeymoon period, but in fact, India still stands with the United States on many important international issues and has failed to provide sufficient support to the United States. A good example.
What's going on here?
Tracing the roots: the roots of anti-Americanism in India
If we look back at India's history, India is not a natural "swing" country. In fact, India has long clearly drawn a line with the United States, and even has "anti-American" genes.
During the Cold War, India-US relations were estranged, and there were many contradictions between the two countries, which were mainly reflected in two aspects.
On the one hand, the diplomatic concept of India and the United States is completely contradictory, and the fundamental contradiction is irreconcilable.
Foreign policy is the most intuitive embodiment of national interests, and different national interests lead to different foreign policies. At that time, the United States actively competed with the Soviet Union for hegemony and single-handedly created a bipolar pattern.
America's goal is clear: to be a world leader. Therefore, the diplomatic philosophy of the United States at that time can be summarized in eight words: black and white, friend and foe.
In other words, in the view of the United States, all countries within the bipolar framework must choose sides and choose between the United States and the Soviet Union. There is no middle ground to choose from.
Controlling the spread of communism in Asia was one of America's most important Cold War strategies. India plays a pivotal role in South Asia. The United States did not allow India to fall under Soviet rule and demanded that India be its ally. But India rejected the U.S. request.
During the period of intensification of the US-Soviet hegemony, Nehru took power in India. Nehru's choice infuriated the United States, but Nehru repeatedly stressed that India would not bend to the United States and would not join the Soviet Union. This is India's "non-aligned" foreign policy.
Nehru preferred independence to swing between East and West. As he said, India does not want to be a slave or a puppet.
Behind the "non-alignment" policy is India's self-reliance. For India to become a great country, it should become a "third power" outside the bipolar pattern.
In the face of the aggressive United States, Nehru repeatedly stressed that India is an independent and complete country and does not need to depend on any country for survival.
India has its own view of right and wrong when judging international affairs and can choose freely. The United States has no right to intervene.
India's unprogressive attitude completely angered the United States and was severely criticized by all circles in the United States.
The United States does not believe in the so-called non-alignment policy at all, believing that it is just an excuse for India. As long as the poles exist, the non-aligned countries will be wishful thinking. If India chooses not to stand in line, it will definitely end badly.
So the two countries forged an indissoluble bond, estranged from each other and hated each other. The United States criticizes India for hypocrisy, and India cannot understand American arrogance.
On the other hand, Pakistan has always been a thorn in the side of India and the United States, leading to a stalemate in relations between the two countries.
India and Pakistan have territorial disputes, and the Kashmir issue is the biggest obstacle to India-Pakistan relations. In order to maintain its position, the United States tried its best to mediate, but blindly supported Pakistan, which caused great dissatisfaction in India.
In fact, there have always been different voices within the Indian government. India-US cooperation seems self-evident, but in reality, the voices of doubts never stop.
India does not mind U.S. involvement in the Asia-Pacific because India has always regarded China as its number one adversary, and the United States can help India deal with China.
However, India has never publicly supported the US Asia-Pacific strategy and deliberately avoided using words such as "alliance" between India and the United States. Sino-US relations can be said to be quite cautious.
India is a multi-party country, with the BJP and Congress having the most advantages. During the alternating administrations of the two parties, attitudes towards the United States also differed. But what is certain is that the "non-alignment" policy has penetrated into the bone marrow of India, and the impact of this policy is immeasurable.
As a result, the United States may never be able to make India a true ally, and India's turmoil will continue.
So, how much energy does India really have to break the military hegemony of the United States?
Unknown: Indian Energy
On the surface, U.S. military hegemony is only about the combat effectiveness of the military. However, if we analyze further, it is not difficult to see that maintaining military hegemony is absolutely inseparable from politics and economics.
At the same time, India's influence also has implications for the military, economic, and political spheres of the United States.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States immediately showed goodwill to India, but India was not to be outdone and turned into a staunch neutral country.
In February 2022, the United Nations will discuss the withdrawal of troops from Russia. In just one week, India abstained three times, making it clear that it would not buy the United States.
Subsequently, Western countries, instigated by the United States, began anti-India lobbying activities.
Earlier, the British Foreign Secretary flew to India, followed by threats from senior White House officials. The British prime minister even called Modi directly to persuade him to join the Western camp and jointly sanction Russia. But whether it is intimidation or inducement, India has not relented.
India's move could undermine the U.S. global military posture.
Judging by the current situation, the Russian-Ukrainian war is likely to develop into a protracted one. If India sticks its ground and engages normally with Russia, the deterrent power of the United States against Russia will weaken. India is also a country with nuclear weapons. India's ambiguous attitude can easily trigger battlefield variables.
If Russia gains the upper hand in the Russian-Ukrainian war, NATO's eastward expansion process will be interrupted, and the Eurasian strategy of the United States will also be damaged.
The influence of the military field will inevitably affect politics, and the control of the United States in Asia will be greatly reduced.
India will take this opportunity to hold South Asia firmly in its hands and use South Asia as a bargaining chip to blackmail the United States and demand that the United States give India more benefits.
As a result, the United States would lose not only the initiative in Asia, but also its appeal to Western allies, which could well bury a potential political threat.
In recent years, the political relationship between the United States and its allies has been very delicate, which has created a rift with many old allies. For example, the United States has taken advantage of the situation to sell energy at high prices, which has angered European countries. In another example, Biden's criticism of Netanyahu's legal reforms, which he directly and vehemently opposed, has shed more light on U.S.-Israel relations.
Seeing that the United States is undecided to deal with India, these dissatisfied allies are naturally ready to strike. They are likely to follow India's lead in dragging the United States off the crumbling altar and sparking political turmoil on a global scale.
Economically, India has never stopped the pace of "de-dollarization".
With the BRICS summit, a new monetary system is gradually being established, and India is an active promoter of this system.
In international trade, India strongly supports the local currency settlement system, strives to increase the influence of its currency, and promotes currency diversification.
Despite repeated threats by the United States and claims to impose economic sanctions on India, India still insists on responding to the call of the BRICS countries and uses various means to weaken the strong position of the dollar.
Today, the dollar is in trouble, the US fiscal is in turmoil, the US debt has been sold off in large quantities, and the dollar is depreciating at an alarming rate. At this critical juncture, India has not forgotten to "take the knife" and does not take the United States seriously.
The economy is an important pillar of U.S. military hegemony. If the dollar slides into the abyss, the US military strategy will lose its financial support and will never be restored.
It can be seen that the United States seems to have wooed India, but India has not really bowed to the United States. Crumbling India is like a ticking time bomb, in danger of exploding at any moment.
The old feud between India and the United States cannot be resolved overnight. Ironically, the United States is so complacent that it seems completely unaware of it.
The reason why India dares to treat the United States in this way shows the decline of American national strength. The wheel of history rolls forward, and the decline of the United States is a foregone conclusion. India-US relations may face more challenges in the future.
Reference:
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3. Zhang Genhai. Analysis of India-US relations after Modi came to power[J].South Asian Studies Quarterly,2018,(3):1–6,117.)
4. Xu Juan. The US-India Strategic Vision: The Positioning and Interpretation of the "Global Swing State"[J].South Asian Studies, 2015, (3rd Edition).
5. Tao Ying. Analysis of factors affecting India-US relations during the Cold War[J].Historical Research,2008,(First Edition).
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