The Nigerien military openly called out at the French embassy
The request of the Nigerien military has sparked curiosity and speculation. Why did the Nigerien military ask the American, French and German embassies to leave? Does this mean that the Nigerien military is dissatisfied with these countries? The French side said that the Nigerien military has no right to ask them to leave, what is going on?
In fact, the key to whether the Nigerien military has the power to demand the departure of foreign embassies is whether they have the ability to enforce it. Now, the Nigerien military has begun to act: cut off electricity and water from the French embassy in Niger. This can be seen as an open call by the Nigerien military.
Behind this action of the Nigerien military is the support of the Wagner Group. This provided some military support to the Nigerien military, enabling them to openly call on the French army.
France faces an awkward situation
This situation is not only a confrontation between Niger and France, but also involves the interests of a number of other countries. African countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso are also on the side of the Niger military, pursuing different policies from France and its Western allies. Iran, as a country with expanded influence in the African region, has also given some support to the Niger military.
Now the problem is before the French army. If they do not dare to take action against the Nigerien army, the French Embassy will be trapped in the embassy area and will lose basic living conditions. This will deal a serious blow to France's image, and France's position in Africa will plummet
However, if the French army made a decisive move, then the African revolution supported by Russia would have erupted in full. Behind the military in Niger is not only the support of Mali, Burkina Faso, the Wagner Group and Iran, but also Russia. This would plunge the French army into an uphill battle and could even trigger instability across the African region
Iran expands its influence in Africa and supports the Nigerien military against the West
Iran's presence and activities in Africa have been attracting much attention. According to the U.S. Counterterrorism Center, Iran has been ramping up its activities in Africa and trying to build an anti-Western united front in order to break sanctions imposed on it by Western countries while expanding its sphere of influence. In East Africa in particular, Iran has carried out a series of activities and made significant progress in the political, military and economic fields
Iran's choice to operate in Africa is no accident, and it is an important part of its overall strategy. In addition to economic investment, Iran is actively engaged in the export of ideas and the establishment of intelligence organizations to help build and train local armed forces. Iran has even provided weapons and money to African countries, where the Revolutionary Guard has long trained against pro-U.S. and pro-Israel governments and local forces. Iran's activities in Africa are more radical and open than in other countries. Iran not only invests in and exploits mineral resources, but also actively spreads the religious ideas of Islam, giving it a roots in Africa
In addition, once the pro-American regime takes repressive measures against Iran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard will quickly mobilize to organize and train local militia forces to confront it. According to the evidence, the Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guards has trained, financed and equipped a number of African countries and organizations through its so-called "Unit 400," as well as Shiite armed groups in Nigeria. Iran has also used its relations with some African countries to successfully bypass economic sanctions imposed on it by Washington
Therefore, to interfere in Niger's affairs, the United States and France must confront the Wagner group and Iran's Revolutionary Guards, which support the military. However, NATO forces are currently being pinned down by the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, which makes it difficult to project troops in Africa
The US and French troops lack ammunition: Wagner Iran wants to win all battles
Although in Niger, the U.S. and French forces each have more than 1,000 troops, these are mainly drone units and transport aircraft units, which are basically technical troops. With only a small number of guards, it is not capable of conducting offensive operations and ground warfare. More critically, both the United States and NATO have shortages in ammunition. Especially on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, NATO's artillery shell reserves are almost exhausted, and armored vehicles are also facing serious difficulties
According to Russian satellite network, US Deputy Secretary of Defense Catherine Hicks said that since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, the United States has provided Ukraine with more than 3.1 million rockets, missiles, mortar shells and artillery shells. In addition, the United States used more than 2 million rounds of 155-mm shells, almost depleting the entire NATO shell stockpile
However, military operations in Niger faced a shortage of shells. Algeria does not allow US and NATO air forces to use its airspace, so they cannot take off from Europe to carry out military operations across the Mediterranean and Algeria into Niger. In addition, the United States and France must obtain Nigeria's consent to use their airspace and air bases if they want to deploy an air force, but Nigeria has difficulty approving and does not have NATO-standard air bases
The formation of the United Front of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger made Africa a second battle ground for Russia and Iran against the United States and the West. Algerian media made it clear that they would not sit idly by while friendly country Niger was invaded, which made it more difficult for US and NATO air forces to enter Niger. This is an opportunity for Russia and Iran, as it means they can access vast mineral resources such as gold, uranium, iron and manganese, and expand their sphere of influence in West Africa. Once fighting breaks out, the entire West will be plunged into an endless guerrilla war, and NATO will have to divert resources from Ukraine to Africa
At present, the United States and France face a dilemma that they cannot ignore and do not have enough strength to solve the problem. The war between Ukraine and Russia is prolonged, and the resources available to the West are increasingly strained. Russia, on the other hand, has two favorable conditions: the Wagner Group's sphere of influence in Africa, which covers 12 countries, and Africa's scarce food resources