With the May Day holiday just around the corner, the number of travelers has soared this year, and hotel room prices across the country have also risen. Behind this phenomenon, experts say there has been retaliatory consumption. After 3 years of epidemic control, people's consumer demand has been released intensively. However, after this round of passionate consumption, China will still face a local deflationary cycle in the future.
In a deflationary environment, the following four phenomena will occur in society. First of all, the property market has entered a long-term downturn. Despite various positive news, the domestic property market still shows a sluggish state of "volume and price decline". The number of second-hand house listings has increased rapidly, and many people with multiple properties have begun to sell intensively, and there is great pressure on house prices to fall in the future. At the same time, the demand for housing fell to a historical trough, economic income decreased and even the number of unemployed people increased, resulting in the shelving of housing purchase plans. Coupled with the concern of high house prices, everyone began to worry about the future decline in house prices and became the takeover man. The property market has fallen into a long-term downturn and is difficult to reverse, and house prices will gradually return to a reasonable level.
Second, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find employment. This year, 11.58 million fresh college graduates will apply for jobs, while a large number of social workers are looking for jobs, and the employment pressure is greater. Recruitment demand is shrinking as industries are sluggish and take time to recover. Some organizations hire a small number of employees, but hundreds of people compete. Employment is becoming more difficult, and in addition to requiring 2-3 years of work experience, the age is also limited to under 35 years old. It is difficult to improve the employment situation in the short term.
Third, real enterprises face difficulties. After the deregulation of the epidemic, many people expect the physical enterprises to improve, but in fact, they still need to go through a deflationary cycle. Due to the decrease in people's income and the decline in consumer demand, the backlog of commodity inventory of real enterprises is serious, and funds cannot be returned in time. In addition, investment and competition in traditional industries are fierce, and market share is differentiated. Rents for shops and offices, as well as labor costs, have been squeezed.
Finally, fertility declines. Since the two-child policy was lifted in 2016, the number of newborns has been declining. By 2022, the number of births is expected to fall to 9.56 million, down from 17.65 million previously. In addition to the high cost of marriage, high bride price and high cost of raising children, after the pandemic, the number of family incomes decreased or the number of people who lost their jobs increased, and they were unable to have children again. During the deflationary cycle, the number of newborns is less than 10 million, which will affect the demand for housing in related industries and residents.
The May Day holiday is coming! It is expected to usher in a rebound in domestic consumer demand. However, we must also face domestic deflationary cycles. In this cycle, the above four phenomena will appear in society. In order to get through this period safely, we need to prepare in advance. Do not voluntarily resign, do not start a business rashly, do not invest in buying a house, and avoid involving infant-related industries. Only in this way can the deflationary cycle be smoothly passed.