WRITTEN BY MYANMAR MILITARY OBSERVER MOE SETT NYEIN CHAN
A three-brother military alliance comprising the Arakan Army (AA), the De'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has once again come into the spotlight for its recent talks with the military regime in Myanmar.
Needless to say, the military alliance, which first became known in 2016, has become one of the key players in Myanmar's civil war and politics.
The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army was formed in 1989, also known as the Kokang Allied Army, and it took three to four years to re-establish after many fighters were forced to flee Kokang during a large-scale offensive by the Myanmar military in 2009.
The Rakhine Army and the De'ang National Liberation Army inherited the Rakhine and De'ang revolutions from their predecessors, the Arakan Army was established in 2009 and the De'ang National Liberation Army was reorganized in 2011, both of which started from a low starting point of a few dozen soldiers.
All three, all located near the Chinese border in northeastern Myanmar, emerged around 2010 and are led by men in their 30s and 40s.
Over the next decade, they built well-organized, well-equipped and combat-ready units.
Once a weakling
While other ethnic armed groups (EAOs), including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), support the three groups, the Myanmar military underestimates them. They joined the nationwide ceasefire and peace process as members of the United National Federation Council (UNFC), but the Myanmar military did not allow them to sign the National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in September 2015.
In early 2016, the Myanmar military demanded the surrender of the three groups, threatened by peaceful brokers hired by the Burmese military with a strategy of "four breaks," which aims to cut off the rebels' critical investments in funding, food, intelligence and recruits.
The peace committee of the Myanmar government has demanded that the three ethnic armed groups lay down their arms if they are to participate in the first session of the Federal Peace Congress (Panglong 21st Century). One Myanmar military peace negotiator even said: "Even if they want to attend the federal peace conference, this is not the Taung Pyone Festival," a reference to the annual festival of dedication held in Mount Poba, which is free for all to attend.
The three ethnic armed groups responded by launching a joint offensive in Menggu, northern Shan State, around late 2016 to suspend Myanmar's border trade with China through Mujie, once considered a small armed force whose military capabilities have attracted the attention of many.
Between 2015 and 2017, the three groups participated in a summit of ethnic armed groups in Bunkham, which is under the de facto control of the United Wa State Army (UWSA). They also became members of the Federal Political Negotiation Consultative Committee (FPNCC), a political alliance of ethnic armed groups based in northeastern Myanmar led by the United Wa State Army, which seeks alternatives to establishing peace outside the path of the National Ceasefire Agreement. An alliance has also been formed between the three organizations called the "Alliance of Three Brothers".
The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army began fighting the Myanmar military in 2015, and between 2014 and 2020, the De'ang National Liberation Army clashed with the Myanmar military 200 to 300 times a year, and the Arakan Army also fought the Myanmar military in Rakhine State in western Myanmar from late 2018 to 2020. These battles allowed them to claim their presence, and fighting between the Rakhine Army and the Myanmar military broke out again in Rakhine State between August and November 2022.
Over the past decade, the Rakhine Army has grown into a formidable army with about 100 battalions and a total of about 30,000 soldiers. The Deang National Liberation Army has grown to 7 brigades with about 8,000 soldiers, while the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army has grown to 4 brigades with about 6,000 soldiers. Their combined strength is about 45,000 to 50,000 troops, and in terms of their size and combat capability, they inevitably play an important role in Myanmar's civil war.
Ethnic armed groups with a long history in Myanmar's civil war, including the Karen National Union (KNU), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Kayah National Progressive Party (KNPP), and the Chin Front (CNF), openly collaborated with the shadow government of national unity (NUG) during Myanmar's Spring Revolution, while the Three Brothers Alliance is supporting resistance forces involved in the revolution.
Led by young middle-aged leaders, the Three Brothers differ from traditional ethnic armed groups in their way of thinking and acting, and they also have close ties with other powerful ethnic armed groups such as the United Wa State, the Shan Progressive Party/Northern Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), so it deserves close attention when analyzing the Spring Revolution.
The Alliance of Three Brothers and China
After the Three Brothers attacked Menggu in 2016, China set out to forge close ties with the Three Brothers. China does this entirely out of its own interests, as the three groups operate along the border and operate in areas where Chinese investment projects, including oil and gas pipelines, are located.
China managed to pressure the Myanmar military to allow the Three Brothers to participate in the second and third sessions of the Federal Peace Congress, but Myanmar military leaders refused to meet with representatives of the three ethnic armed groups attending the second session of the peace conference.
Since 2016, China has facilitated talks between the Myanmar military and the Three Brotherhoods, and following the February 2021 military coup, it facilitated talks between the Myanmar military and six ethnic armed groups stationed along the border, including the United Wa State Army, the Northern Shan State Army, the National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Three Brothers Alliance.
At the end of 2022, China took further action to pressure the Three Brothers Alliance to stop fighting the military regime.
The Myanmar military changed tone
The Myanmar military previously believed it could annihilate the Three Brothers, each of whose members started with just a few dozen troops.
But in reality, instead of crushing these three groups, the military suffered heavy losses in the battle against them.
Beginning in 2018, after two years of intense fighting, the Myanmar military reached a ceasefire agreement with the Rakhine Army ahead of the November 2020 general elections. After the February 2021 military coup, the Myanmar military sought to coax a ceasefire from ethnic armed groups in the face of strong armed resistance across the country, with the aim of focusing on crushing the Popular Defence Army (PDF).
As a result, the Myanmar military has tried to make peace with the Three Brothers, which had previously been forced to make peace with them under pressure from China. Therefore, the Chinese and Myanmar militaries each pushed for a ceasefire with the three brotherly alliances to suit their own interests.
Mengla talks
Against this backdrop, the military regime's National Unity and Peace Negotiation Commission (NSPNC) and the Three Brothers held talks on June 1, 2023, in Mengla, which is controlled by the National Democratic Alliance Army.
The talks were attended by Lieutenant General Yar Pyae, chairman of the National Unity and Peace Negotiations Commission, other military officers, deputy officials of the Rakhine Army, the De'ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, as well as Guo Bao, commissioner for neighboring countries in China's Yunnan province.
At the meeting, Lieutenant General Jabi followed the words of the head of the military regime, Min Aung Hlaing, saying that the Myanmar military did not stage a coup d'état but took over state responsibility in accordance with the law. He urged the three ethnic armed groups to support its proposed elections. He said that in discussing the issue of national self-determination, the military regime would adhere to the line of the National Ceasefire Agreement and the military-drafted "2008 Constitution".
The Three Brothers Alliance demanded the release of their detained members and their removal from the list of illegal groups, and the Brotherhood called for the lifting of restrictions on the delivery of humanitarian supplies to people affected by Cyclone Mocha in Rakhine State.
After the meeting, the three brothers responded that they had only come to hear the views of the military regime and would report their discussions with the military regime to their respective central executive committees.
Trilateral issues
China hopes that the China-Myanmar border will be stable and Myanmar will be peaceful at home, so as to promote trade with Myanmar and increase investment in Myanmar.
Obviously, China is promoting dialogue neither for the Myanmar military nor for ethnic armed groups, but purely for its own interests. From China's perspective, China can only advance its interests in Myanmar when the situation in Myanmar is stable.
Securing a ceasefire with the powerful Three Brothers alliance is also a strategic goal for the Myanmar military. It could concentrate on crushing the Popular Defence Forces, which would use the National Ceasefire Agreement and the 2008 Constitution to delay the issue of federalism and the right to self-determination only if it separated the military alliance from the democratic forces based in central Myanmar.
Based on experience, the Three Brothers Alliance is well aware that without an army, there can be no rights. They do not trust the Myanmar military, which has committed various war crimes in their ethnic areas and always tries to suppress them when the opportunity arises. They are also well aware that once the Myanmar military gains the upper hand over the democratic forces at home, it will turn against them.
What's more, the Myanmar military is reluctant to give them the degree of self-determination and autonomy they want, and more simply, the military does not want to see a second Wa state, an autonomous enclave controlled by the United Wa State Army in Shan State. The Three Brothers know that even after hundreds of years of negotiations, it is impossible to reach an agreement with the Myanmar military.
However, they are all under Chinese influence, and because they are all based on the China-Myanmar border, China will constantly push the three brotherhoods to the negotiating table, and the Myanmar military will try to coax them by making some concessions.
Due to Chinese pressure, the three brotherhoods will continue to participate in the talks, but these talks will never come to fruition. It is therefore not surprising that fighting broke out in Kokang on June 2 and 3, following talks between the military regime and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance in Myanmar in Meng La on 1 June.