As the civil war in Myanmar continues, China's attitude is becoming a key force in shaping the situation. The point we made earlier was that China must ensure that the Burmese junta has some military advantage and that it does not have a broader and longer armed rebellion in the country. Because from the perspective of China's interests, the current Burmese military junta is not only more active in promoting economic and strategic cooperation with China, but also very cooperative with China's anti-wire fraud campaign, as evidenced by the arrest of a Burmese deputy defense minister. However, given the serious complications of the political situation in Myanmar, China also needs to communicate with other anti-government forces, including the National Unity Government of Burma. This does not mean that China is betting on many sides, but that we are not a party to the civil war in Myanmar in the first place, and China, as a strong neighbor, has the responsibility to engage in dialogue with all parties in Myanmar to promote peace and even reconciliation in the country, and eventually transition to a normal country that can be recognized by the international community.
Among the Burmese factions that China needs to engage with, the Myanmar National Unity Government, which represents Aung San Suu Kyi's faction, is considered to be the most sensitive. This is not only because the group is at odds with the junta, but also because it was historically considered pro-Western. Of course, when Aung San Suu Kyi was in power, Sino-Burmese relations were good, but there was still a gap between the junta and the junta in promoting several strategic cooperation projects that China is particularly concerned about.
At present, since the counteroffensive launched by the Kokang Allied Army, many local armed forces in Myanmar have begun to attack the government, and the country is on the trend of total political collapse. Against this backdrop, in an interview with The Washington Post, Myanmar's National Unity Government made a special request to China: not to supply weapons to the junta. The foreign minister of the Government of National Unity said in an interview in Brussels: "Since the coup, the junta has imported at least $1 billion in weapons, most of them from individuals and businesses in Russia, China and Singapore. The group has announced that it will continue to use drones to attack the Burmese capital, Naypyidaw, as part of a strategy to put pressure on the junta.
The Government of National Unity also extended an olive branch to China, claiming to "support the one-China principle and expand economic engagement, as well as ensure that there are no criminal groups in Myanmar that pose a security threat to China, and that if the group is in power, it will guarantee all Chinese investments in the country." This raises the question: How will China respond to the demands of the Burmese opposition to ban support for the junta? First of all, China will definitely stand firm. Based on China's principle of non-interference in Myanmar's internal affairs, there is every reason to continue normal arms trade cooperation with the Myanmar junta, but it is also necessary to avoid the situation where the arms deal leads to the destruction of the local military balance. In other words, China does not need to step up its support for the junta or end the arms deal, as opposed groups demand, but should follow past practice in implementing bilateral arms trade agreements.
Second, China needs to see clearly the general trend of political development in Myanmar. There are great uncertainties about whether Myanmar will be able to transition to an elected government in a short period of time, whether Aung San Suu Kyi's faction will be able to return to power, and whether an armed insurgency will be able to upend the political situation. Judging from the current situation, the rebels in Myanmar will not only fail to forge a bright future, but may also make the country even more divided, and even if the national unity government returns to power, it will be difficult to deal with the situation in which the ethnic armed forces in various parts of the country are in power. Therefore, if China continues to communicate with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's faction, the best situation is to strive for a smooth transition from Myanmar's domestic political situation to an elected government. If Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's faction insists on challenging the junta through a military offensive, we will not interfere. Considering that there are many armed forces attacking the Burmese government army, and most of them are civilian forces, the development trend of the political situation in Myanmar is pessimistic, and we must prepare for the worst. Overall, it is still best to find a solution that better protects China's interests from a worse situation and maintain a regular arms deal with the junta.