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The Dunning-Kruger effect, also known as the D-K effect, the "illusion of confidence," was first discovered in an experimental study by Cornell University psychology professor David Dunning and his graduate student Justin Kruger.
The Duck effect refers to a cognitive bias phenomenon in which one overestimate one's own cognitive bias during self-assessment.
When evaluating their abilities, people with poor abilities tend to overestimate themselves, while people with strong abilities tend to underestimate their abilities.
In 1999, Cornell University psychology professor David Dunning and his graduate student Justin Kruger presented a series of questions about grammar, logic, and humor to undergraduates in an experimental study, and then asked each student to estimate his overall grades and his own ranking relative to other students.
As a result, students who scored the lowest on cognitive tests always overestimated themselves, and they also didn't have the ability to recognize their mistakes and always insisted they were right; students with higher scores underestimated their abilities, thinking that if these cognitive tests were easy for them, then it would be just as simple or even simpler for others.
In Dunning and Krueger's study, they compared differences in subjective self-evaluation among individuals with different objective abilities. In the study "On How Inability to Correctly Understand How Insufficient Ability Leads to Excessive Self-Evaluation", the results showed that the least capable 1/4 of the participants thought that their ability was stronger than 60% of the people, while the most capable 1/4 of the participants had a slightly lower self-evaluation than the objective ability.
Dunning later extended this effect to the study of a person's ability development, that is, when learning a new skill, beginners tend to have a rapid expansion of self-confidence, and then as the learning progresses, self-confidence will fall and then gradually rise. This process can be roughly summarized as going through four different stages if it can be continuously improved.
The above four stages portray a typical "master cultivation path":
The peak of ignorance: people's wisdom is extremely low, but their self-confidence is extremely high;
Valley of Despair: Recognizing one's own inadequacies, wisdom has increased, and self-confidence has decreased significantly;
The Slope of Enlightenment: Wisdom continues to grow, self-confidence begins to rebound and grow;
Sustained stable plateau: Wisdom reaches the top, self-confidence also continues to be stable, embark on the path of master.
But the masters are after all a minority. Most people, who may stay in the "giant baby" stage in their lives, are extremely confident, but they know nothing about the world they see, and live in the realm of "not knowing what they don't know".
Falling from the peak of ignorance to the valley of despair is a rare situation and requires some opportunities. As Dunning and Kruger say, for people with insufficient ability, not only will they have a wrong understanding of things and make bad choices, but even their ability to recognize their own mistakes is deprived.
It is not only the "fools" who will stay on the peak of ignorance, everyone may be trapped here when learning to master certain knowledge and skills. Ignorance will keep you ignorant, and this terrible fact is at the heart of the Duck effect.
At the Geek Park 2019 Innovation Conference, Zhang Peng, founder of Geek Park, had a dialogue with Wang Huiwen, the former number two person of the US group. One of the paragraphs is to verify whether a sentence that once spread all over the Internet came from Wang Huiwen's mouth.
Responsible managers should push their subordinates from the "peak of ignorance" to the "valley of despair", and whether subordinates can climb the "slope of enlightenment" depends on personal creation. ”
Wang Huiwen confirmed the authenticity of the source of this sentence, and specially stressed to Zhang Peng that the core word of this sentence is "responsibility".
Wang Huiwen said: "Why is it not a responsibility? Because if it is a responsibility, you can still evade responsibility, and only with responsibility will you not evade responsibility. ”
In the 10 years of rapid development of the US regiment, almost every important battle touched by the development of the US regiment has wang Huiwen's figure. In his letter of farewell to Wang Huiwen, Wang Xing said that he "has both the courage to charge forward and the steadiness of setting up camp and setting up camp; both the responsibility of giving up oneself and others, and the fact that achievements do not have to be in my dashing; there is both a sense of responsibility that 'the world rises and falls, and the pirate has a responsibility,' and there is also the true disposition of 'we have nothing, but we have brothers and courage'; both have the courage to maintain strategic determination for a long time and patiently, and also insist on not waiting for the time and only fighting for the day and forgetting to devote ourselves." ”
At the age of 42, Wang Huiwen chose to retreat from Wang Xing's side. He once said that being a CEO is too painful, and now, meituan's anti-monopoly investigation boots have landed, And Wang Xing's side, this time there is no Wang Huiwen.
Wang Huiwen, who has become an independent non-executive director of Kuaishou, does not know how to feel at the moment. Today, we have compiled some of his previous in-depth thinking and revisited it with Jun.
Most people know that others are at the top of ignorance... But no one knows that they are at the top of ignorance, which creates a very large information asymmetry.
When you give feedback to others, you may also be a stupid × yourself, maybe I myself am at the top of ignorance, in fact, people are right, this possibility is also very large, through this behavior to prove the fact that you may be at the top of ignorance.
Why don't you know at the top of your ignorance? It is because everyone does not get effective feedback in the process of their own growth, and no one tells him that "you are now at the top of ignorance." Why don't a lot of people get this feedback because others don't have this responsibility.
If you want to give this feedback to others, you have to bear the risk of hurting yourself, the risk of offending people, so it needs to be taken responsibility.
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I once went out alone to start a business for a while, and my feeling was that it was too painful to be a CEO, and after starting a business, I was very sympathetic to Wang Xing and understood him very well.
We often talk about empathy, in fact, everyone knows it, but few people do it, why is it so difficult to do it? Because there are three steps in empathetic thinking, each step is difficult:
The first step is self-withdrawal. You pull you out of your current identity and role, and then you forget your current identity and role, forget your pain, your interests, your fears, forget what you aspire to. Because you can only be objective enough if you pull out. This step is very difficult when cultivating.
The second step is empathy. That is to say, to move your own role to someone else's role.
The third step is the same. This is the hardest step. In the same way, I can try to move to a similar position with you, such as you are a journalist, but I have never had such an experience, I will find a way to move to a profession similar to that of a journalist, or my similar life experience, so that I can roughly understand your mentality.
But in any case, I haven't done this profession, it's hard to understand, and most people are opposed to CEOs.
I am a person who enjoys the reasons and processes, and I can also enjoy doing things with Wang Xing, so it is no longer important to start a business or not to start a business.
For any enterprise, the individual struggle is important, but to consider the historical process, so the focus of our thinking is to always pay attention to the historical process, including the whole world, economy, industry, science and technology and other external changes.
In front of the natural world, people are still very small, we must make a little preparation in advance before the change, to ensure that the enterprise at any point in time, so that the business philosophy, resource allocation, rhythm in line with the general trend, this is our continuous thinking problems.
Keeping the organization up-to-date, but at the same time being a little more advanced in thinking, can perceive this thing earlier.
Human growth is divided into several different dimensions, one is skill growth, but more importantly, mental growth.
Einstein often explores scientific propositions from the perspective of art and aesthetics, if people always look at life from only one perspective, life will become particularly narrow and not rich enough, and it is very important to look at problems from different perspectives and grow up without limits.
If you have to say what is the core competitiveness, the ability to learn quickly may be the core competitiveness, which will make your core competitiveness, not limited to a specific field, so that you can make long-term continuous progress, when you need new capabilities, you can seize new opportunities.
When Wang Xingla first started my business, the two of us studied electronic engineering, my graduation design was to weld satellite downlink circuit boards, and Wang Xing's graduate students read biochips, listening to chips, which is actually biology.
Later, after he interpreted it to me, I learned that it was mainly biology, not electronic chips, quantum chips, which were used to do calculations.
So, the genes of the two of us are not doing the Internet.
So don't limit yourself with genes.