ChatGPT continues to have a "high fever" and goes the old way of the meta-universe again

Text/Lu Shiming

Edit/Gale

The meta-universe that became popular around the world in 2021 dissipated the "virtual fire", and the ChatGPT, which is popular in the world in 2023, is "high fever".

Recently, Microsoft dissolved its industrial metaverse division, which was established only four months ago, and all about 100 employees in the division have been laid off. If project layoffs are not enough to prove the "passing" of the metaverse, the data on "money" is more intuitive.

For example, Roblox, known as the first stock in the metaverse, lost about $60 billion in a year, down more than 70%; Another example is Meta, known as the leader of the meta-universe concept, which has burned a total of $30 billion in meta-universe projects since 2019, and lost $13.72 billion in 2022 alone.

The domestic side is not reluctant. The A-share metaverse sector fell by as much as 47.58% in 2022, and Byte's metaverse social app "Party Island" was shut down three months after it was launched; Tencent's digital collection platform, Phantom Core, was cut less than a year after its launch.

Compared with layoffs, stock prices, market capitalization, and losses, a more obvious feeling is that the "voice" about the metaverse has been greatly reduced, whether it is the Internet or reality. But as the future direction of mankind, the AI industry has never been calm. Before the metaverse, there was autonomous driving, and after the metaverse, it was ChatGPT's turn.

In the two months since its launch, this natural language processing tool driven by AI technology has experienced the same popularity process as the metaverse, and almost overnight, ChatGPT has become the object of global hot discussion. While contracting the headlines of major media platforms, ChatGPT has also injected a shot of overdose stimulants for large and small capital and technology players at home and abroad.

It is undeniable that the dialogue and writing skills shown by ChatGPT are indeed very "strong", and the possibilities and market prospects released by it are also worthy of in-depth participation of capital. But now the pursuit of ChatGPT by capital and corporate players has changed.

In the eyes of many companies, as long as they dare to rub the concept, they can get a high rise in stock prices and get the investment of VCs.

As long as you dare to rub, the stock price dares to take off

In just two months since its launch, ChatGPT has gained 100 million monthly active users. In the past 20 years of Internet development, it is unique. This not only confirms the popularity of ChatGPT, but also the best embodiment of people's recognition of the value of ChatGPT.

Diao Long, VP of Miyun and head of brand marketing, told Zinc Finance: "ChatGPT will have a very strong replacement effect. Many jobs, especially content jobs, are 60% replaceable. If you need to do a 60-point text output, you can do it directly through ChatGPT, and the efficiency of the content team will be greatly improved. ”

Compared with ordinary users, for such a product that shows great commercial value, the attitude of capital and technology players is more resolute. For example, 360 founder Zhou Hongyi said bluntly when talking about ChatGPT for the first time: "If the company can't get on the ChatGPT bus, it is likely to be eliminated." In line with Zhou Hongyi's "prophecy", the popularity of ChatGPT is triggering players in the technology circle to follow suit, and also driving the mood of the capital market.

Abroad, since February, the U.S. stock market has continued to report that listed companies have launched ChatGPT-related technologies.

For example, Microsoft launched new artificial intelligence search engines Bing (Bing) and Edge browser, and the new applications will be supported by OpenAI with the latest technology. The new version of Bing, which runs on OpenAI's language model, is more advanced than ChatGPT and can easily switch to AI chat mode.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai suddenly announced the launch of Google's next-generation AI dialogue system Bard on his official blog on February 7, and said that the dialogue system will soon be integrated into Google's search engine. In addition, BuzzFeed, a digital media company known as the headline in the United States, is also planning to use the artificial intelligence program ChatGPT to assist in content creation...

Overseas technology giants have joined the game, and domestic players have also arrived.

At present, domestic Internet giants Tencent, Ali, Baidu, JD.com, Byte and Xiaomi are all promoting research in ChatGPT and AIGC. Among them, Baidu's ChatGPT-like project name is determined to be Wen Xin Yiyan, English name ERNIE Bot, completed the internal test in March and opened to the public.

Source: Baidu public account

Cai Ruitao, CTO of Miyun, told Zinc Finance: "I personally think that if domestic manufacturers develop related products, it is actually the most beneficial to Tencent, because Tencent can take out all the content of public accounts that are not indexed as training data."

As for JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo, they are more from the direction of intelligent customer service, and ByteDance is gradually migrating from the UGC (user-generated content) of today's headlines to AIGC. There are also many players such as NetEase, iFLYTEK, Zhihu, 360, and SenseTime who have also maintained follow-up to AIGC's innovative technology in different directions.

Although there are few players who can really come up with products so far, the capital market has given a strong response.

In terms of U.S. stocks, while kicking off the era of AI search, Microsoft's market value also ushered in a surge, soaring more than $80 billion (about 545 billion yuan) overnight to $267.56 per share, with the latest total market value of $1.99 trillion, a five-month high. BuzzFeed's stock price has also risen sharply, soaring 300% in two days. Shares of artificial intelligence software provider C3.AI Inc also soared after announcing the integration of ChatGPT into its products at the end of January.

It is not only investors in the overseas secondary market who see the great potential of AI applications, but also the same scene in China.

In the past two weeks, ChatGPT concept stocks such as Baidu, Zhihu, Yuncong Technology, and 360 have all risen sharply, with 360 rising for three consecutive trading days, and Zhihu rose nearly 60% on February 8, and the stock price hit a record high. In addition, several companies such as Haitian AAC, Hanwang Technology and Yuncong Technology have also risen in stock prices because of their status as "ChatGPT concept stocks".

Some people are really engaged in technology, and some people just want to rub a wave of concepts, as long as they have a little relationship with ChatGPT technology, they will make a wave of quick money. Even if it can't be touched, as long as you dare to "rub hard", the stock price will dare to take off. Among them, the company that is widely questioned as a "hot spot" is none other than Secoo.

Previously, Secoo, which was teetering on the verge of bankruptcy, announced that it would conduct in-depth research and expansion of AIGC and ChatGPT-related technologies, and would apply them to related services. Affected by the news, Secoo shares soared 124.4% on the day to close at $3.77.

The top ten domestic ChatGPT concept stocks rose from January 3 to February 9

Doing ChatGPT requires rich experience in natural language word processing, as well as a large amount of data, and requires relevant algorithms, and there are not many technology players who can really do it in China. Companies like Secoo are hyped for the sake of hype.

Entrepreneurship is trendy, and capital is beaten to chicken blood

Compared with enterprises in the secondary market, there are also many entrepreneurial players in the primary market.

Whether in terms of technology or data volume, making a product similar to ChatGPT, large companies are obviously more promising, and the future business monetization process is naturally smoother. But no industry cake will be completely eaten by the giants, and entrepreneurs still have opportunities in AIGC's more segmented fields.

At present, entrepreneurial players can do similar consulting business in special scenarios. For example, some companies that do customer service business are very eager to tell the market a story about AIGC. For example, some marketing companies are also very active in discussing related topics, thinking about how to do something creative and efficient.

Although it can't eat most of the dividends of the market, but with the ChatGPT outlet, entrepreneurial players are very interested in financing in the name of AIGC, and the capital in the primary market has enough reasons to let go of investment. Of course, the one exception is OpenAI, which publishes ChatGPT, where "money" will only be more "passive".

On January 24, Microsoft announced on its official blog that it has expanded its partnership with OpenAI, which will make a multi-year, multibillion-dollar investment to accelerate its technological breakthroughs in the field of artificial intelligence.

As early as 2019 and 2021, Microsoft has injected funds into OpenAI twice. This equity investment method is also a major strategy to actively embrace AIGC in addition to vigorously promoting independent research and development.

In addition to OpenAI, there are other head entrepreneurial AI companies that are "targeted" by giant capital. According to a funding report from data analytics agency PitchBook, generative AI companies raised about $920 million in the U.S. in the past year, up 35% year-over-year. In the more than two months of 2023, in addition to the billions of dollars Microsoft has invested in OpenAI, a number of generative AI companies have raised or are negotiating more than $700 million.

Compared with overseas, the reaction in the domestic primary market began as early as a few years ago when the AI drawing came out of the circle, and investors have seen a large number of projects in the field of AIGC.

In November last year, Xiaoice company, which was independent from Microsoft's artificial intelligence team, completed a new round of A+ financing of 1 billion yuan, with Bird Capital as the financial advisor and Hillhouse Investment and IDG Capital as investors. At present, the Xiaoice framework is the world's most practical and complete AI Being basic framework, and the commercialization results in the AIGC field have also been widely used in vertical fields such as finance, culture, textiles, and tourism.

Then yesterday, Wang Huiwen, the former co-founder of Meituan, posted on social platforms announcing his entry into the field of artificial intelligence, saying that he would build China's OpenAI. Wang Huiwen said that Beijing Lightyear Technology Co., Ltd. will be established, Wang Huiwen contributed 50 million US dollars, valued at 200 million US dollars, he personally does not own the shares, the capital accounts for 25% of the shares, 75% of the shares are used to invite top R & D talents, and the next round of financing has been subscribed by top VCs for 230 million US dollars.

Wang Huiwen's circle of friends

Whether overseas or domestic, the enthusiasm of primary market capital around generative AI is increasing, mainly due to its broad application prospects and huge market size. According to CSC's calculations, AIGC's market space can reach 100 billion yuan based on the scale of 1 trillion yuan in digital content fields including games, short videos, live broadcasts, dramas, movies, variety shows, online music, picture copyright, and online literature in 2021.

In terms of commercialization, Cai Ruitao said: "At present, ChatGPT's business model has two directions, one is to collect users' subscription fees as an app. The other is an open API that makes it easier for other platforms to integrate ChatGPT into existing applications. ”

Some people follow the trend, and some people ring the bell. Zhang Chaoyang, founder of Sohu, believes that ChatGPT has accumulated for many years, involving many issues such as how many servers to have computing power, knowledge base, annotation, etc., and if companies without these capabilities follow suit, they will consume a lot of resources.

Indeed, although AIGC has good market prospects, the threshold of millions of dollars at every turn also deserves more "caution" among VCs and entrepreneurs.

The concept of hype is to change the soup without changing the medicine

Overnight popularity, global attention, soaring stock prices, frequent monster stocks, a sharp increase in entrepreneurial players, and enthusiasm in the primary market. If you think about it carefully, this wave of ChatGPT craze is the same as the metaverse in 2021.

Two years have passed, and today's meta-universe has "declined", but ChatGPT is repeating its story, and many speculative capitals are also doing hyped things "for soup without changing medicine", even more so than the hype of the meta-universe back then, these speculators intend to cut a handful of fresh leeks. "Leeks" must understand the difference between conceptual hype and value investing, and don't be "revenants" under the giant sickle.

From the perspective of conceptual hype, after passing the hype stage, "ChatGPT" has to go through two stages.

First of all, it will not be long before many listed companies with soaring stock prices will "clarify", saying that they want to get rid of the ChatGPT concept stock label, which will make the company's own stock price return to the freezing point, and will also make the market's investment enthusiasm for "ChatGPT" cool down quickly. But at this time, those speculative capitals have taken turns to cash out and leave the market.

As for the "remainder" market funds and sentiment, it will also turn to more "pure" concept stocks to continue the speculation until the enthusiasm gradually dissipates, the market returns to rationality, and real value investors begin to enter the market.

Secondly, ChatGPT will enter the stage of today's metaverse: do a good job of products, do a good job of commercialization, and give value investors a satisfactory answer.

ChatGPT, like the metaverse, uses cutting-edge technology, and cutting-edge technology must always be verified through scenarios and applications. If ChatGPT players don't find a good business model, they are doomed to a low ebb in development.

Diao Long said: "Compared with the metaverse, the commercial application prospects of ChatGPT will be greater. The conditions for all aspects of the metaverse are not yet mature, such as the large-scale production of AR/VR hardware, and the content system in hardware devices, and the entire ToC market is still in a very early stage and needs a long commercialization cycle. But ChatGPT can be used at any time, and it can give you a 60 at any time except for the absence of emotions. This is very practical commercially, and the commercialization speed will naturally be faster. ”

For players who are currently entering this field, whether it is technology giants or entrepreneurs, in the absence of substantial differences between technologies, how to apply this technology, make a more friendly product, and continue to optimize the model, is the most important program of the entire project.

Especially in the initial product function, we should do a good job of optimization training. After all, the stock price that rises due to the concept is naturally very sensitive and fragile.

For example, Google's "Bard" gave a wrong answer to a user's question at a press conference, and then Google's stock price plummeted by more than 7%, and its market value lost hundreds of billions of dollars overnight.

Google stock price Source: Snowball February 14

Unlike the mechanism of U.S. stocks, although the concept of ChatGPT continues to be hot, A-shares are also cooling.

On the evening of February 8, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued regulatory work letters to the two major ChatGPT concept stocks of Haitian AAC and Yuncong Technology; At the same time, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange also issued letters of concern to the "Sanlian Board" ChatGPT concept stock Hongbo Co., Ltd. and ChatGPT's popular stock Hanwang Technology on the 8th and 7th respectively.

Affected by this, at the opening of February 9, the ChatGPT sector led the decline, of which Yuncong Technology and Haitian Ruisheng both fell by more than 10%. As of the midday close, Yuncong Technology fell more than 11%, Haitian AAC and Donggang shares (002117. SZ) fell by more than 6%, and Gaohong Shares, Xinzhi Software, Hanwang Technology, and iFLYTEK fell first.

In fact, conceptual hype is relatively normal and healthy, which is a vibrant performance of a country's capital market. Especially for emerging technologies and emerging industries such as AIGC, speculation can attract the attention of more capital, so that the truly promising enterprises among them can obtain more funds, thereby accelerating the progress of technology, commercialization, and promoting the further development of AI in mainland China.

However, hype and over-hype are completely two concepts, and over-hype will only trigger more bubbles, not only harming the market, but also fundamentally harming the vital interests of investors. What can be seen is that after nearly a year of excessive speculation, now the financial bubble of the metaverse is being punctured, and the relevant domestic and foreign technology companies, some of whose stock prices have entered a falling channel, and some are mired in losses, can only hope for capital financing to continue their lives.

When will the ChatGPT bubble burst? Nobody knows. However, what is certain is that when the ChatGPT fire dissipates, you will know who the real tech players are and who are the speculators in troubled waters.