Focus
- 1 Quantum's unique ability to analyze data stacks is already optimizing the routes thousands of tankers take across the globe, helping to decide which ICU patients need the most urgent care, and mimicking chemical processes at the atomic level to better design new materials. It is also expected to enhance artificial intelligence.
- 2 Any disruption comes with risk, and quantum has become a national security "migraine". Its problem-solving abilities would soon render all current cryptography obsolete, jeopardizing communications, financial transactions, and even military defenses.
【Editor's note】In the movie "The Wandering Earth 2", the 550 series of quantum computers are in the limelight and play a key role in responding to the crisis. Unlike the suitcase-sized single-person quantum computer in the movie, a real-life quantum computer looks more like a chandelier with complex shapes that must operate in a harsh environment. Is it really that powerful? The cover story "Quantum Leap" published in the latest issue of Time magazine explains the current and future use cases of such computers, as well as the competition between big business and government in the field of quantum computing. The following is a compilation of the article, slightly abridged.
The latest issue of Time magazine publishes the cover article "Quantum Leap"
One of the secrets to building the world's most powerful computer may be right next to your bathroom sink.
In Westchester County, New York, IBM Thomas M. At the Thomas J. Watson Research Center, scientists always carry a box of dental floss with them in case they need to tinker with a drum-sized quantum computer, the latest quantum computers that can accomplish certain tasks millions of times faster than your laptop.
In IBM's System One gleaming aluminum cans, there are 3 cylinders with decreasing circumference, like a set of matryoshka dolls, surrounded by glass similar to the Mona Lisa's protective glass. These three cylinders together wrap a "chandelier", and the silver wires in the "chandelier" are connected to the quantum chip at the base by layers of heavy gold plates. To work properly, the chip needs to be cooled to 0.015 Kelvin — a little above absolute zero and colder than outer space. Most materials shrink or become brittle and break under such intense cooling. But it turns out that if you need to fix a disobedient thread, ordinary dental floss can do a good job of maintaining its integrity.
The "chandelier" inside the quantum computer is designed to cool its chips to lower temperatures than outer space. Image source: TIME
"But only the unwaxed, tasteless kind." Jay Gambetta, IBM's vice president of quantum business, said, "Otherwise, the steam released will mess everything up." ”
Quar's unique ability to analyze data stacks is already optimizing the routes thousands of tankers take across the globe, helping to decide which ICU patients need the most urgent care, and mimicking chemical processes at the atomic level to better design new materials. It is also expected to enhance artificial intelligence with the ability to better train algorithms and eventually turn fleets of driverless cars and drones into reality. Chris Inglis, director of the U.S. National Network, told TIME that quantum AI simulations have shown "incredible levels of effectiveness and efficiency."
The earliest adopters of quantum were asset managers, as the inclusion of quantum computing required little to no additional overhead, but commercial use is not far off. Spanish company Multiverse Computing has successfully piloted projects with multinational customers such as BASF and Bosch, showing that its quantum algorithms can double the profits of foreign exchange transactions and find nearly four times the defects in the production line. "Quantum deep learning algorithms are completely different from classical algorithms." Enrique Lizaso Olmos, CEO of Multiverse, said, "You can train them faster, try more strategies, and they do a lot better at getting important correlations from large amounts of data."
Tech giants from Google to Amazon and Alibaba, not to mention countries vying for technological superiority, are vying to dominate the space. According to an analysis by International Data Corp, the global quantum computing industry is expected to grow from $412 million in 2020 to $8.6 billion in 2027.
While traditional computers rely on binary "bits" (switches either on or off, represented as 1s and 0s) to process information, the "qubits" that underpin quantum computing are tiny subatomic particles that can exist in both states in some proportion, like a coin spinning in midair. This leap from binary to multivariate processing has exponentially increased computing power. Complex problems that currently take the most powerful supercomputers several years to solve have the potential to be solved in seconds. Future quantum computers could open up hitherto unfathomable areas in math and science, helping to solve existing challenges such as climate change and food security. The recent spate of breakthroughs and government investment means we are now on the brink of a quantum revolution. "I believe we will do more on quantum innovation in the next five years than we have done in the last 30 years," Gambetta said. ”
But with any disruption comes with risk, and quantum has become a national security migraine. Its problem-solving abilities would soon render all current cryptography obsolete, jeopardizing communications, financial transactions, and even military defenses. Dan O'Shea, operations manager at the industry publication Inside Quantum Technology, said: "People describe quantum as a new space race. In October, U.S. President Joe Biden visited IBM's quantum data center in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., saying quantum was "vital to our economy and just as important to our national security." In this new era of great power competition, China and the United States are particularly obsessed with conquering this technology so as not to lose its importance. "This technology will be the next industrial revolution." Tony Uttley, president and chief operating officer of Quantinuum, Colorado, which provides commercial quantum applications, said, "It's like the beginning of the internet, or the beginning of classical computing." ”
It is also surprising that the traditional way of computing has brought us to where we are today. From the pioneering Apple II of the late '70s to today's smartphones and supercomputers, all processors break down tasks into binaries. But life is so complex that presenting information in such a rudimentary way is like playing Rachmaninoff's concerto with Morse code.
Quantum is also more in line with the laws of nature. A molecule (a building block of the universe) is a plurality of atoms held together by electrons present in an atom. The way these electrons essentially occupy both states at the same time is the replication of quantum particles, which provides applications for natural science and materials science by predicting how drugs will interact with the human body, or how matter behaves under corrosion. Traditional manufacturing requires calculation-based guesswork, trial and error; By reflecting the natural world, quantum should allow progress to be purposefully designed.
While the world's largest companies and hundreds of startups are vying to take advantage of quantum, IBM has become an industry leader in recent years. Today, the company has more than 60 functioning quantum computers (more than any other company in the world combined), and the list of collaborators includes giants in nearly every industry, from ExxonMobil to Sony. For the legendary company, founded more than a century ago and making a living producing punch cards, it's a return to the pinnacle of technology. In recent years, IBM has fallen behind competitors such as Apple and Microsoft by not seizing the initiative in cloud computing and artificial intelligence. Quantum offers some redemption, "It's great to be back at the top again." One executive said, "It's no secret that we didn't jump on the clouds and go all the way down." ”
Image source: TIME
Quantum chips are very sensitive. The decade-old IBM quantum processor was used in an experiment to show how background microwaves affect qubits.
In November (last year), IBM released its new 433-bit Osprey chip, the world's most powerful quantum processor. IBM has more than 20 quantum computers on its open-source quantum toolkit, Qiskit, which has been downloaded more than 450,000 times to date. To build an industry around quantum, some machines are free to use, while paying customers, such as startups and academics, can remotely access more powerful machines by leasing. IBM has a bold roadmap to launch 1,121-qubit processors this year, and by 2025, more than 4,000 qubits will be created by creating modular quantum circuits that connect multiple processor chips in the same computer. "Modularity is a big inflection point." Dario Gil, IBM's senior vice president and director of research, said, "We now have the means to design machines that will have tens of thousands of qubits." ”
The industrial uses of quantum are limitless. At BMW's headquarters in Munich, there is a wall where car designers stay up at night. It takes at least four years to create a new car model from scratch. First, the designer used computer-aided styling to outline a look that combines beauty and practicality. Next, a scale model was carved out of clay and placed in a wind tunnel to assess aerodynamics. After making countless decisions about the interior, engine performance, and more, the final test came: the prototype drove at 35 mph to the fabled wall to test how it would perform in a crash. If the car does not meet various safety standards, it goes back to the drawing board.
This is where quantum can help by accurately predicting how complex materials of different shapes will behave under pressure. "Powerful simulated crash testing can save six months in the entire process." Carsten Sapia, BMW Group's vice president of strategy, management and IT security, said that the BMW Group has already partnered with the French quantum company Pascal and that "quantum computing will also help us find new sweet ground between design, maximum interior space and optimal aerodynamics." ”
This is just the beginning. Modern business is full of optimization problems that are well suited to quantum algorithms and can save time, energy, and resources. Katie Pizzolato, director of quantum strategy and applied research at IBM, explains, "We're not just building technology, we have to make it accessible to the workforce." ”
Over the past few years, quantum has gone from being a footnote to being at the top of the global security agenda. To date, 17 countries have developed national quantum strategies, and 4 more are in the process of developing them. According to the Quantum Computing Report, China's investment in quantum research since the mid-80s is estimated at $25 billion. Its top quantum scientist, Pan Jianwei, led the launch of the world's first quantum satellite in 2016 and unveiled what was then-record 56-qubit quantum computers in 2021. China's 14th Five-Year Plan, announced in March 2021, makes mastering quantum technology a policy priority.
In response, the White House released a National Security Memorandum in May (last year), which ordered all federal agencies to transition to post-quantum security because of "significant risks to economic and national security." Given that upgrading critical infrastructure can take decades, and that everything connected to the internet is risky, the impetus now is to act. Skip Sanzeri, founder and COO of QuSecure, said: "We realized that while [quantum] is good for humans, the first thing people have to do is weaponize these systems. QuSecure is a post-quantum cybersecurity company recruited by the U.S. military and federal government to handle cybersecurity upgrades that could cost $1 trillion.
Still, David Spirk, the former chief data officer of the Department of Defense, worries about the risk of the U.S. falling behind and has called for a "Manhattan Project-like" focus on quantum. According to the World Economic Forum, global spending on quantum last year exceeded $30 billion, with China accounting for about half and the European Union about a quarter. Meanwhile, the U.S. National Quantum Program spent only $1.2 billion, a figure described as "insignificant" compared to the $1 trillion total defense spending. "This is not an upcoming wave." "It's here," he said. ”
The stakes couldn't be higher. Today, almost all cybersecurity (whether WhatsApp messages, bank transfers, or digital handshakes) is based on RSA, an asymmetric encryption algorithm for securely transmitting data. But ordinary computers take billions of years to crack RSA, while fast quantum computers only take a few hours. In December, a team of scientists in China published a paper saying they had a quantum algorithm that could crack RSA with a 372-bit computer (although its conclusions were hotly debated). Now, the race to design post-quantum security has begun, which is being led by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). In 2016, NIST announced a competition for programmers to come up with new post-quantum cryptographic algorithms. The results were mixed: one of the finalists, announced on July 5, 2022, was later hacked in just over an hour by a regular laptop.
In some ways, it's too late. Although quantum computers powerful enough to crack RSA are still a few years away from being publicly available, hackers are already seizing and storing sensitive data because they know it will soon be accessible via quantum. "If you don't convert to a quantum-safe protocol, there's no recovery plan," Gill said. ”
The war in Ukraine is also a wake-up call. This is the first thermal conflict in history that began with a cyberattack. Public services, energy grids, media, banks, businesses and nonprofits have been hit by cyber blitzkriegs, affecting the distribution of medicines, food and relief supplies. The basis of modern warfare and national security mechanisms is the speed and accuracy of decision-making. "If your computer is faster than theirs, you win, it's simple." "Quantum is the next leap," Sbock said. ”
The panic surrounding quantum doesn't just stem from security risks. We trust classical computers, in part because we can verify their calculations with pen and paper. But quantum computers involve such mysterious physics and deal with such complex problems that traditional verification is very tricky. Currently, we can simulate many quantum calculations on a conventional supercomputer to check the results. But there will soon be a point when trusting quantum computers will require a leap in trust. "It's really important to build trust across the ecosystem right now." Utley said.
Image source: TIME
The glass shell surrounding the quantum computer allows IBM to tightly control the temperature inside. This is crucial for quantum chips because their temperature must be kept a little above absolute zero.
Boeing, for example, has been working with IBM's quantum team since 2020 to design new materials for its next-generation aircraft. But given the huge reputational risk, the company isn't in a hurry. Jay Lowell, Boeing's principal engineer for disruptive computing and networking, said: "The modeling tools we use to design our aircraft are closely monitored. Converting [quantum] into operational code is a huge obstacle. ”
IBM knows this all too well. But by opening up the source code of its quantum computers and welcoming academics and entrepreneurs from everywhere, the company hopes to alleviate that hesitation. As Jill says, "This is a new frontier for humanity. ”