In the recent rumors of the new US government's science and technology war plan against China, the White House proposed a long-standing presidential executive order is said to comprehensively review overseas venture capital investment in China's quantum computing, advanced semiconductors, artificial intelligence fields, and the US Treasury Department is in contact with other governments, including the European Union, to ensure that all parties are coordinated after the executive order.
Ranking among the "priority strike" technology fields in the United States, reflecting the special application potential and strategic value of quantum computing has also been officially valued. However, unlike advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence, there are still many misinterpretations and misinterpretations of the development of quantum computing, and there are many recent self-media and even experts advocating that quantum computing can jump out of the "encirclement network" of the United States and achieve the so-called "lane change and overtaking".
What challenges will the impending external containment bring to the development of the mainland quantum computing industry? Can quantum computing become the "special drug" of high-performance computing that some people expect?
"Very wary of Chinese faces"
As if to cater to the interests of their respective audiences, analysts in China and the United States often relish the story of China's "leading" quantum technology competition, and there are papers, patents, government grants and other quantitative indicators to prove it, and some self-media even cheered based on such cognition, claiming that containment and containment will accelerate the leap forward of China's quantum computing "black technology" and make the United States shoot itself in the foot.
(China's seemingly "comprehensively leading" quantum technology)
However, quantitative indicators cannot be directly equated with the real quality of scientific research and industrialization, and it must be faced that the United States still occupies a clear leading position in the field of quantum computing, and its fine and fierce containment has a significant impact on relevant institutions in the mainland.
In terms of capital flows, in addition to trying to cut off overseas capital investment in China's quantum computing field, as early as last September, US President Joe Biden signed Executive Order 14083, issuing unprecedented directives to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), emphasizing the need for the Commission to continue to regularly review its procedures, practices and regulations to ensure that they remain responsive to changing national security threats, and tighten the review criteria for Chinese capital investment in the United States in "technology areas related to US national security." CFIUS needs to consider whether the transaction involves manufacturing capabilities, services, critical mineral resources or technologies in these areas, and quantum computing is also among the list.
In addition to the tightening of two-way capital flows, since last year, the United States has also begun to impose various explicit or implicit restrictions on quantum computing academic, personnel and business exchanges between China and the United States, and some American scholars have said that it is becoming more and more difficult for Chinese students in the direction of quantum computing (QC) to obtain visas.
Gu Chengjian, the founder of Photonic Box, who has been tracking the development of quantum technology for a long time, detailed to Jiwei the "cold air" that suddenly hit Jiwei since last year: "Many of our cutting-edge scientific and technological leaders have returned from studying abroad, and the United States is now blocking talents, including those who are now there, and he won't let you come back." This is especially true in terms of exchanges, and the academic conferences and industry conferences in the quantum field held in the United States are not allowed to participate in Chinese companies, and even Chinese faces are very vigilant. ”
Joint research and academic exchanges are limited, and mainland institutions independently carry out quantum computing technology research and product transformation, but also face the problem of "stuck neck" of key core equipment and devices, and still have considerable dependence on the United States and other Western countries.
In November 2021, Guodun Quantum, a listed company on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, was included in the Entity List by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the US Department of Commerce, and the company frankly stated in its external response: "Some domestic high-end instruments and equipment have a long research and development cycle, high technical barriers, and some of the company's high-end instruments still rely on foreign imports at this stage, which may adversely affect the company's subsequent operations".
Gu Chengjian analysis, taking the most mature superconducting quantum computer in technology as an example, there are obvious shortcomings in dilution refrigerators, high-performance oscilloscopes and other measuring equipment, special cables, and extremely low temperature electronic components, trade embargo and technical blockade will have a greater impact, such as dilution refrigerators "This equipment is currently only two companies in the world can really provide commercial products, two together account for 99% of the market share, one is Finland's BlueForce, the other is Britain's Oxford Instruments, But since the second half of last year, these two companies have also imposed an embargo on sales to China at the request of the United States."
Gu Chengjian also said that at present, there are also many domestic scientific research institutes and start-ups in the field of quantum computing key core equipment and devices to carry out research, but as seen in the domestic semiconductor industry, it will take time to make up for the shortcomings of basic capabilities.
If the shortcomings in basic innovation are obvious, then at the level of quantum computer systems and applications, what is the current level of innovation capabilities of Chinese institutions? Can it become a "quick-acting core rescue pill" after the limitation of large computing power chips?
"The situation is very serious"
"What stage of classical computers is quantum computers currently developed?"
For this problem, Gu Chengjian's judgment is "equivalent to before the establishment of Fairchild Company" (in the fifties of the last century). He pointed out that although the system developed by many institutions at home and abroad has successively announced that it has achieved "quantum superiority", it is basically not of practical significance, and in the next 5 to 10 years, academia and industry still need to climb towards the goal of NISQ (noisy medium-scale quantum). At least the 2030s will be seen in the promise of programmable universal quantum computers.
It is precisely because quantum computers are still far from practical use, Rigetti, IonQ, D-Wave and other "net red" quantum computing companies that have previously achieved public listing through SPACs, have seen a sharp decline in market value, and Rigetti has even recently been exposed to be on the verge of delisting. Gu Chengjian pointed out that the track of quantum computing has indeed had a serious inversion of the valuation of the primary and secondary markets, and there have even been cases of the valuation of the secondary market shrinking tenfold, in his view, there are no results for commercialization and no tangible income support, which is the main reason for this phenomenon.
However, even so, In-Q-Tel and other funds supported by the US government still adhere to "early investment, small investment" in this field, and the proportion of venture capital absorbed by US quantum computing companies is also the first in the world, in contrast, mainland startups in this field are not even as good as Canada and the United Kingdom. Gu Chengjian also said that at present, the attention and support of domestic private capital to the quantum track is still very insufficient.
In the "marathon" competition of quantum computer development, Big Blue IBM currently occupies a clear lead, and in November last year, the company announced a new generation of quantum computer Osprey, which can operate 433 qubits, which also strongly shocked domestic counterparts.
(IBM Roadmap)
Gu Chengjian said that although the outside world has always listed China and the United States as the first echelon of quantum computer research and development, believing that the two countries are on par, after IBM released Osprey last year, "we suddenly found that the gap between China and the United States is at least one and a half to two years behind, this generation gap is very large, we are still two generations behind in the laboratory stage, this situation is very serious."
(Ali Dharma Institute's self-developed quantum computer, photo by Jiweinet)
In the absence of clear commercial returns and considerable dependence on government support, the gap between the research and development of quantum computers between China and the United States has not decreased but increased. In Gu Chengjian's view, this is not only related to the deep technical accumulation and engineering experience of giants such as IBM, but also reflects some thought-provoking ecological shortcomings in China.
As the main body of scientific research topics and special projects in China, major scientific research institutes are still quite fragmented in the research and development of quantum computers, and have not yet achieved full exchange and sharing of results and knowledge, and each reinvents the wheel behind closed doors, "there is no atmosphere of cooperation, there is no real use of the national system, around a goal to do a thing."
Gu Chengjian also said that compared with overseas manufacturers such as IBM and Intel, domestic enterprises also lack the strategic determination to invest in long-term investment, and enterprises often exaggerate propaganda driven by equity investment or local governments out of their own short-term interests.
With quantum computing already regarded by major countries as the strategic commanding heights of the future, how can China, which has "got up early", avoid "catching up late" and being left behind by Europe and the United States again?
Gu Chengjian believes that in the research and development of quantum computers that require long-term persistence and continuous iteration, it is possible to set up a special national laboratory to integrate the resources of academia and industry across the country, solve the current shortcomings, and fully release the special advantages of the mainland's national system. Quantum computer upstream equipment and devices can attract equipment and device manufacturers to fully participate through market-oriented means and accelerate the industrialization process.
epilogue
Although the domestic quantum computer is still immature, although it is difficult to become a "quick-acting core rescue pill" to crack the curb of American science and technology, it has increasingly shown broad future application prospects, which is probably the reason why the United States has listed it as a regulatory priority. From advanced semiconductors to quantum computing and artificial intelligence, the United States is trying to firmly "block" its competitors' ability to exploit the value of data.
In the complex and severe strategic technology game, quantum computing, a field with relatively close power between China and the United States, may play the key to "breaking the game", and achieving such a breakthrough still needs more accurate and efficient promotion of industrial policies.