If the bank does not accept cash business, can you accept this?
Not to mention the impossibility, since April 1 this year, Beijing's Zhongguancun Bank has suspended cash receipt and payment business, while Liaoning's Zhenxing Bank has suspended cash business from next month.
Speaking of this is also the trend of the times, just in this Spring Festival, the country's non-cash payment business volume has 20.84 billion, the amount of up to 14.9 trillion yuan, it is estimated that many people even if they use cash is to press the old money.
The reason these two banks stopped doing cash business is to achieve digital transformation, but in reality? I am afraid that I cannot escape the cost considerations.
Because the cash business does not stop all day, the branch will have to repeat the process of "ordering money - packing - escorting - warehousing" every day. Even if the tellers can bear it, the outlets can't stand it, and the three melons and two dates they deposit every day are afraid that they can't even pay for the freight.
Many people have seen the scene of the escort company escorting cash from the bank, full of momentum, of course, the cost is not low.
We don't have a good understanding of public security now, but from the experience of the world, there are many people staring at cash. It is said that in the United States, up to 20% of cash truck drivers have the potential to reverse the water and drive their cars to the gang brothers' strongholds at any time.
For security reasons, the cash of bank branches generally does not stay overnight, and after counting, it is escorted to the vault, so this business has risen rapidly. It is said that N years ago, the charging standard for cash escort of a small outlet was about 40,000-60,000 yuan / year, and some remote outlets charged more expensive, and there was a certain increase every year.
It doesn't look very conspicuous, but it can't stand the outlets, this line to buy a car to hire people also have to be equipped with guns, the industry authorities are the public security organs of various provinces and cities, so the license plate is quite difficult to get.
In many places, there are only one or two armed escort companies with operating qualifications and licenses, which means a bit of "monopoly", so banks have little advantage in bargaining, and often can only accept all orders.
In 2013, the size of the mainland financial escort market reached 8.443 billion, and by 2017, this figure directly rose to 21.107 billion. Although it is incomparable with the big wind outlet industry, there are not many competitors, as long as they can be mixed into the circle, they can ensure drought and flood.
However, in recent years, this business has become a bit difficult to do.
In 2020, nearly 3,000 mainland commercial bank outlets will be closed in one year, and this trend has been going on for three full years, and it must continue.
At the same time, the proportion of non-cash transactions is also increasing. Just in 2020, the total amount of off-the-counter transactions in the banking industry reached 2308.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.18% year-on-year, and the off-counter transaction rate was close to 90%.
Fewer and fewer cash transactions, coupled with fewer and fewer bank branches, are a sign of the future for armed escort companies.
Take the Anbang Guard, who began to sprint to the market at the end of last year, their revenue in 2018, 2019, 2020 and the first half of 2021 was 1.826 billion, 1.958 billion, 2.064 billion and 1.05 billion, which looked good, but it can be seen that the growth rate is getting less and less optimistic.
A similar crisis has happened once on the ATM body.
Since the first ATM machine was put into service in the UK in 1967, this expensive but convenient thing has been frantically in various banks. It is said that many people even suspected at one point that there was a bank employee hiding in the small space of the machine.
By the time the ATM machine enters the country on a large scale, it is already a matter of the 21st century.
At the end of 2005, There were only 95,000 ATMs in China, and by 2015, that number had soared to 866,700 units, making China the world's largest ATM sales market.
At the most exaggerated time, the net profit growth rate of A-share related listed companies can reach more than 100%.
For example, the first domestic listed ATM company, Radio and Television Express, had a net profit of 90.14 million yuan and 232 million yuan in 2006 and 2007, respectively, and the growth rate was as high as 143% and 153% respectively;
In addition, another company called New Datong is even more exaggerated. As a "junior" who entered the market late, in 2013, the net profit growth rate of New Datong was as high as 763.63%.
But there aren't many good days, how long have you not used an ATM?
With the continuous contraction of bank branches, the number of machines now continues to decline, and it is said that in the "professional circle" of telecommunications fraud, the way of ATM inter-bank transfer has been abandoned.
Also, scammers are also talking about efficiency and market research, now electronic payment is so developed, everyone can use their fingers to send red envelopes, transfer money, run to social software to kill pigs is not fragrant?
As for the performance of listed companies, it is not to mention.
As early as 2016, the leading ATM machine, Radio and Television Express, harvested its first negative growth since its listing. Although the company also said that it will actively look for new business growth points, from the trend of 7.59% year-on-year decline in net profit in 2020, I am afraid that the future is not very optimistic.
As digital currencies continue to advance, the cashless era seems to be getting closer and closer.
As early as 2018, the number of transactions in our electronic payment business reached 175.192 billion, and the amount reached 2539.70 trillion yuan, which is quite exaggerated.
Since our online payment is so developed, it will not be stuck like a semiconductor, right?
Judging from the current reality, I am afraid it is still a little difficult.
Why?
Because the transaction volume and transaction speed are getting faster and faster, and the security requirements are getting higher and higher, relatively high-end servers and databases are still a hurdle that cannot be bypassed.
About 2014, the domestic banking industry pushed a wave of "IOE", and it ended without success.
What do you mean?
I refers to IBM, O refers to Oracle, E refers to EMC, they are absolutely powerful in the field of computer room, server, storage, operating system, database and other financial-related software and hardware.
In particular, IBM, although they have long packaged and sold their PC business to Lenovo, they have reserved a ticket for themselves to a better future, which can basically be understood as high-end technology such as high-end servers.
In fact, from the perspective of security and cost, the localization of servers, databases and operating systems is still very necessary, but due to various historical problems, it is still difficult for several major banks to completely "beautify".
Although the development of domestic goods in recent years is quite good, in some high-end server fields, such as Iz series mainframes and i/p series minicomputers, IBM's position is still unshakable in the short term.
Stability is the most important thing for the financial system, and the large servers that cost high prices to import must continue to be used, saying that they will be replaced, and who is responsible for what happened? So to this day, you can still find IBM in the purchase orders of many banks.
For example, on January 10, 2022, the transaction results of the BOC's centralized procurement project were announced. In a long list of projects, you can find a thing called "2021 Host Resource Upgrade Project - Z15 Host Upgrade" at a price of 838 million yuan.
To put it bluntly, just upgrading a service on the host has made IBM hundreds of millions of dollars, and as for the remaining maintenance services, the mess adds up to tens of millions.
But this money seems to have to be spent, after all, IBM has an 87% global share in this field, and it is a sentiment to change to domestic products, but who can afford to pay the responsibility once an accident occurs? Those industries despise the companies at the top of the chain, it is always difficult to be replaced, the Matthew effect is significant, and those low-end industries may have a golden period, but the times want to abandon you, and really do not say goodbye.
END
Source 丨 Big Cat Finance
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