At the end of March, Shanghai was sealed due to the epidemic, which directly led to a strong impact on Shanghai's automobile industry, and in early April, it had spread from the Yangtze River Delta to the national automobile industry. On April 14, He Xiaopeng, CEO of Xiaopeng Motors, posted on his social platform predicting that "if the supply chain enterprises in Shanghai and the surrounding areas cannot find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese OEMs may have to stop work and production in May." ”
He Xiaopeng's statement is undoubtedly the most straightforward, now about to enter May, the situation in Shanghai that gradually resumes work may have improved, but the sales volume in April is not optimistic, we conservatively estimate that the sales of new energy vehicle companies in April are expected to drop by 30% month-on-month, because the Yangtze River Delta region, including Shanghai, is a domestic core auto parts enterprises intensively, so in terms of automobile manufacturing, "Shanghai is uneasy about how to settle the world".
How important is Shanghai? For example, among the suppliers of key auto parts such as power batteries, drive motors, battery control systems, and reducers common to electric vehicles, the proportion of enterprises located in the Yangtze River Delta is basically maintained at about 50%. World-renowned auto parts suppliers such as Bosch, Aptiv, Magna, Continental, Valeo, Dana and other companies have factories in Shanghai, so after The Shanghai seal is not only affected by the Yangtze River Delta automotive industry chain of vehicle manufacturers.
Affected by this, the first to announce the suspension of production is Weilai Automobile, on April 9, a news of Weilai suspension of production brushed the car circle, the reason for the suspension of production is: since March, because of the epidemic reasons, Weilai Automobile's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production, and have not yet recovered. Affected by this, WEILAI's vehicle production has been suspended. On April 14, Weilai Automobile said: At present, the supply chain has recovered slightly, and the Hefei production base is gradually resuming production.
On April 26, we obtained the data on the insurance volume of new energy vehicle companies in the four weeks from March 28 to April 24 from relevant channels, and judged according to the data: the terminal sales of car companies fell by nearly 30% month-on-month in April, and Weilai, Ideal, and Chery, which are closely related to Shanghai, fell by nearly 40%, and the slightly better time is BYD, because the core three electric technology of electric vehicles, from research and development to production, is basically in their own hands. I expect that after the sales volume in April comes out, BYD's sales volume will not be much different from March or even increased (it should be noted that the risk volume from 3.28-4.24 is compared with the whole month of March).
Judging from the number of cards on the card, the most affected may be Tesla! Tesla's number of licenses in the two weeks from 4.11 to 4.24 was only 242! Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory stopped production on March 28 and did not officially resume work until April 19. That is to say, most of Tesla's 10,020 vehicles are from Tesla's national stores after delivery of the risk data from the end of March to the beginning of April.
On April 27, the ASSOCIATION made a forecast for the retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense of April, and the retail market will be around 1.100 million units, down 31.9% year-on-year and 30.3% month-on-month. Although the sales forecast of new energy has not been clearly announced, who can be alone in the jianghu?
On April 29, in response to the forecast of the Association of Passenger Vehicles in April that retail sales in the narrow sense of the car are expected to decline by 31.9% year-on-year, we interviewed the heads and dealers of well-known new energy vehicle manufacturers such as BYD, Tesla, and Ideal, respectively, to understand from their mouths whether the epidemic will have a great impact on their sales.
BYD
BYD Public Relations Department: There is a certain impact, the epidemic affects the number of people entering the store, resulting in new orders being affected, and the tight supply chain has an impact on delivery, but the sales volume in April should change less than the industry, specifically waiting for the sales report of the 3rd.
BYD Beijing distributors: The impact is very large! Because of the epidemic, more than half of the people entering the store to see the car, but we have enough supply, in addition to the DM-i model to wait, EV models can basically guarantee a car. We are not bad, some stores close to the epidemic control area, basically no users come to see the car.
BYD Shanghai dealer: Our employees are still in home quarantine, and our store has sold 3 cars in April! Do you say there is any impact?
tesla
Tesla Public Relations Department: Under the deployment and coordination of governments at all levels in Shanghai, on April 17 and 18, Tesla's 8,000 employees returned to the factory one after another, and the battery and motor workshops resumed production on the morning of the 19th, and many assembly lines have been operating efficiently. "We will gradually climb the production capacity in the next 3 or 4 days to the overall single shift full production", at present we will give priority to the production of Model Y and strive to hand over the car to the user earlier.
ideal
Ideal car user relationship: I don't know much about it at the moment, but the impact is definitely there, and in two days our sales will come out.
Shanghai ideal sales: this month I did not sell a car, before the outbreak of the epidemic I can sell an average of about 7 units a month, now no one into the store to see the car, we are basically maintaining the previous customers, in short, the sale of a very miserable, telemarketing "defeated" customers a lot, more than 70% are in home isolation, in short, it is difficult.
The above is a transcript of my visit (with deletions).
After the darkest hour, the dawn finally ushered in
On April 11, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has built a "smooth coordination platform for the supply chain of the automotive industry chain". Through the platform, enterprises can exchange information on practical problems in the resumption of work and production, logistics and transportation, and timely coordinate and solve practical difficulties faced by enterprises in production and operation. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has sent a working group to Shanghai to promote the stable production and resumption of work and production of key industrial enterprises.
On April 16, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology issued the Guidelines for the Prevention and Control of the Epidemic in Shanghai Industrial Enterprises Resuming Work and Production (First Edition), which published the first batch of key enterprises "white list", involving 666 key enterprises.
On April 22, according to the data released by the Information Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government, 70% of the 666 key enterprises have resumed work and production in the past week (April 18 to April 22), including 251 enterprises in the automobile and automobile industry chain. SAIC, Tesla and other vehicle companies have continuously achieved vehicle off-line, and related parts supporting enterprises have also resumed work.
At present, the situation in Shanghai is improving, the government and enterprises are also actively coping, we still need to be optimistic and positive to face what will happen tomorrow. The operation of the automobile industry is like a delicate and complex clock, which has experienced the darkest hour and finally ushered in the dawn of the dawn.