Enterprises should be prepared for a short "winter"!
Wen | Peng Qing
In 2021, although further affected by the epidemic, it is the most rapid development year for the industrial mobile robot (AGV/AMR) industry, a year with more white-hot market competition, the beginning of a new five-year industry (2015-2020 is a more typical development cycle), and an important time for the industry to break through the 10 billion yuan mark for the first time, once again showing the wide application of industrial mobile robots (AGV/AMR) under multiple benefits such as policy guidance and market publicity.
According to the data of China Mobile Robot (AGV/AMR) Industry Alliance and the statistics of the New Strategic Mobile Robot Industry Research Institute, in 2021, the overall sales of mobile robots for industrial applications (AGV/AMR) in the Chinese market were 72,000 units, an increase of 75.61% over 2020, and market sales reached 12.6 billion yuan (overseas sales of 2.5 billion yuan), an increase of 64% year-on-year. Among them, the number of enterprises with revenue of more than 100 million yuan reached 36, an increase of 50% year-on-year.
Chart: 2015-2021 China Market Enterprise Industrial Application Mobile Robot (AGV/AMR) New Increment (Unit) and Growth Rate
After the rapid development of 2021, at the beginning of 2022, how is the development trend of the mobile robot industry? On the basis of enterprise visits and market research, the new strategic mobile robot all-media made a series of analysis of some dynamics and development trends in the industry in the first quarter, hoping to provide some reference for the alliance enterprises!
Products - technology iteration is the mainstay, shuttle cars have become popular
According to the statistics of the New Strategic Mobile Robot Industry Research Institute, in the first quarter of 2022, enterprises released nearly 10 mobile robots for industrial applications, including AMR, forklift AGV, port AGV, etc. Most of them are iterative upgrades on existing products.
From the product point of view, the current mobile robot product form of the entire industry has been relatively perfect and stable, and the company is currently more on the basis of existing products, continuous improvement and iteration, so that it can be more suitable for the needs of application scenarios.
Chart: New AGV/AMR enterprise products in the first quarter of 2022
The value of attention is that in the first quarter, three companies, including Jianwei, Jizhijia and Megvii Technology, all released four-way shuttles and their solutions.
Through the newly released "Intelligent Four-Way Shuttle MW-Z1", IBGVI hopes to further expand from the handling scene to the access scene; Megvii's four-way shuttle has filled the gap in its flexible solution in the field of automated vertical storage; and the storage and picking solution on the Four-way Truck of Jizhijia will further improve the picking and storage efficiency through the cooperation of the four-way truck and the P800 picking robot.
It can be seen that in addition to mobile robot products, based on the need to expand business scenarios, some companies have also begun to "cross-border" to expand product lines.
Market - Domestic epidemic situation, foreign expansion accelerated
Domestic market
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2022 reached more than 27 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year at constant prices. Although the overall economy is still growing positively, the epidemic has brought different degrees of impact to various industries.
Since March, the domestic epidemic situation has shown the characteristics of many points, wide coverage and frequent occurrence, and the area of sealing and control management has been expanding, especially the continuous spread of the epidemic in Shanghai, which is the center of East China, has made the entire city press the pause button. Shanghai's overall manufacturing industry has also been affected, and some manufacturers have had to cut production or stop production, which has also had a greater impact on the AGV industry.
For AGV/AMR enterprises, first of all, the demand for equipment from the stagnation of production activities will be reduced, especially in East China, which is one of the main markets for AGV/AMR. Affected by the epidemic, some terminal manufacturers' large bidding projects have been postponed, and small projects have begun to compress investment; secondly, some projects signed by early enterprises, subsequent delivery is facing many obstacles; finally, some AGV corporate headquarters are in Shanghai, and daily operations will also be affected in the case of stagnation in the entire city.
However, although the East China market has been pressed the tentative button since March, due to the improvement of the overall market demand in the early quarter, most companies have slightly increased from the same period last year in terms of business orders, but generally have not reached the expected target for this year.
The demand for orders in overseas markets increased significantly
In 2021, China's mobile robot companies performed well in overseas markets, with overseas sales reaching 2.5 billion yuan. Accounting for 20% of the overall market, the proportion of overseas sales of many enterprises has been greatly improved, which also indicates that going to the international market has become the development trend of the industry, and the influence of Chinese enterprises' products in the global market has gradually increased.
Chart: The share of industrial mobile robots in overseas markets of Chinese enterprises in 2021
In the first quarter of 2022, despite the epidemic situation, international political and economic instability and other factors, the pace of China's AGV/AMR enterprises "going out" has not stopped, and recently, more and more Chinese AGV/AMR companies have begun to appear in overseas series exhibitions. Among them, Jiazhi Technology, Hikvision Robot, Youai Zhihe, Jianwei Robot, etc. appeared at the "Korea SFAW Exhibition" with a series of mobile robot products and solutions; Jizhijia, Guozi Robot, Muxing Intelligence, Zhongli, Future Robot and other enterprises showed their core products at the "American MODEX2022 Logistics Exhibition"; Xiangong Intelligent unveiled its end-to-end industrial logistics solutions at the Japan Robot Exhibition.
In addition to actively participating in the exhibition, companies are also expanding their overseas business through cooperation with local integrators or related foreign companies. For example, Jizhijia and Bosch Rexroth signed a North American regional cooperation agreement in March 2022, and the two sides will share resources and cooperate to expand the North American market; In March, Hairou Innovation announced that it has reached a strategic cooperation with two U.S. warehousing and logistics automation industry partners, Tompkins Robotics and Storage Solutions, to jointly deepen the North American market. Kuaicang has expanded its overseas business by expanding its overseas localization team, launching products suitable for overseas markets, and accelerating overseas patent applications and safety certification.
In the first quarter of 2022, overseas projects mainly focused on warehousing and cross-border e-commerce, and enterprises such as Jizhijia, Kuaicang, and Hairou performed well in overseas markets.
In the future, with the easing of the global new crown epidemic, the recovery of the global economy, and the pull of the overall market, the foreign market will obviously become a major focus of competition for Chinese mobile robot companies, and it is a window for domestic enterprises and brands to better break through. The sales share and voice of China's industrial application mobile robots in overseas markets will become more and more competitive.
Industry - new energy demand is still strong
According to the data of China Mobile Robot (AGV/AMR) Industry Alliance and the statistics of the New Strategic Mobile Robot Industry Research Institute, in 2021, the new energy battery market will account for 8.4% of the overall sales market of industrial application mobile robots, with a significant growth rate, and is the most high-profile subdivision industry in 2021.
In the first quarter of 2022, the new energy industry is still hot. Incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, the battery new energy industry chain related companies have continued to promote the construction progress of new projects, of which 39 projects have been started, with a total investment of more than 279.445 billion yuan; 8 projects have been put into production, and 7 have announced the amount of investment, with a total of 11.191 billion yuan. In addition, in the first quarter, related newly announced orders, including lithium batteries, cathode materials, copper foil, and lithium battery equipment, have reached 45.
The investment and expansion of the new energy industry has driven the demand for related equipment. In the first quarter, Hive Energy signed an agreement with Sany Robot to reach in-depth cooperation in terms of digital upgrading of production lines and smart warehousing and logistics, with a total amount of about 107 million yuan, involving Hive Energy's factories in Huzhou, Yancheng and Suining, Sany Robot will provide Factory-wide intelligent warehousing and logistics solutions for Hive Energy and automated transportation services between processes in the production line.
In addition, including Siasun, Jiashun Intelligent, Today International, Hikvision Robot, Future Robot, Zhuhai Chuangzhi, Bluecore Technology, Huarui Technology, Stand and Jiazhi Technology in the first quarter of the new energy industry business is also steadily advancing.
In addition to new energy batteries, the photovoltaic market in the first quarter also showed the phenomenon of "off-season is not weak", the new installed capacity exceeded expectations, and listed companies in the industrial chain have announced expansion plans, which is also good for downstream equipment manufacturers.
The demand for AGV/AMR in the traditional automotive industry has dropped significantly, and it is mainly based on small orders. In the first quarter, production and sales of vehicles in Mainland China totaled 6.484 million units, up 2.0% y/y, and sales totaled 6.509 million units, up 2.0% y/y. In the first quarter, automobile production and sales increased slightly year-on-year, and the growth rate fell back from the same period last year. From the perspective of automobile supply, the shortage of chips has not been significantly alleviated, the price of raw materials for power batteries has risen rapidly, further pushing up the manufacturing costs of enterprise products, the production and operation activities of car companies have been affected to a certain extent, and the overall situation is less than expected; from the perspective of automobile consumption, the consumption momentum is obviously insufficient, and it shows a certain decline compared with the same period. In this context, the demand for AGVs in the traditional automotive industry in the first quarter of this year has declined, on the one hand, the overall slump in the industry, on the other hand, last year's large number of collective procurement projects in the automotive industry also overdrawn the market demand to some extent.
Most of the incremental space of AGV/AMR in the automotive field is concentrated in the new energy vehicle sector. In the first quarter, Weilai Automobile's Hefei factory and Xiaopeng Automobile's assembly workshop all had tens of millions of projects for mobile robot enterprises to bid.
In the first quarter, the heat of the aerospace and military industry rose, releasing many projects, the main characteristics are small projects, high profits, and of course, the entry threshold is also high.
There are many large projects in the construction machinery industry in the first quarter, and Guozi Robot, CSG Huaxiao, and Linggong Zhike have all received 50 million to nearly 100 million yuan of projects.
Petrochemical industry, Ajiwei has recently received a number of orders from customers in the chemical industry.
There are fewer projects in the semiconductor industry in the first quarter, and most companies are in the framework negotiations.
In addition to the above industries, under the trend of accelerating the promotion of "carbon neutrality and carbon peaking" in the world, achieving sustainable development has become an important assessment criterion for the survival and development of enterprises. For companies operating large factories and industrial parks, a green transition to achieve the goal of double carbon towards energy transition has become necessary to combat climate change. The creation of "green factories" needs to significantly reduce or even completely eliminate carbon emissions at the production end, not only including the active conversion of energy consumption of the factory itself into clean electricity, but also the assistance of many digital technologies to make the manufacturing and production process of products more efficient, thereby further reducing carbon emissions.
For AGV/AMR enterprises, the clean energy industry under the background of double carbon will be promising, and enterprises can continue to pay attention to it; on the other hand, in the process of promoting the construction of green factories, AGV/AMR enterprises can give full play to their own advantages to help enterprises achieve digital and intelligent upgrades.
Financing - a total of 7 cases, generally in the level of 100 million yuan
According to the data of China Mobile Robot (AGV/AMR) Industry Alliance and the statistics of the New Strategic Mobile Robot Industry Alliance, in the first quarter of 2022, there were 7 financing incidents in China's mobile robot industry, with a total financing of more than 700 million, of which 5 were alliance enterprises, including Stand, Xiangong Intelligence, Qianwei Robot, Bluecore Technology, and Wood Ant Robot.
From the perspective of capital investment, most of the enterprises' financing amount is above 100 million yuan, and capital investment in the industry is increasing. Among them, Stand and Xiangong Intelligent have obtained hundreds of millions of yuan in financing.
From the controller into the market, to the current industrial logistics full-scenario solution of Xiangong Intelligence, in recent years, it is also in rapid development. It is understood that in 2021 alone, Xiangong Intelligent will create more than 700 landing projects for semiconductor, 3C, lithium battery, photovoltaic, auto parts, PCB, textile, medical and other industries, with a project delivery rate of 100%.
Focusing on unmanned forklift trucks and visual AMR applications, Micro Robot and Bluecore Technology also belong to one of the representative enterprises of the industrial application mobile robot subdivision track, and Micro Robot has accumulated hundreds of large enterprise customers, and Blue Core Technology's series of visual AMR has also been widely landed in various scenarios of industrial manufacturing.
From the perspective of investment and financing rounds, investment and financing in the field of mobile robots are mainly concentrated in the A and B rounds, and most companies are still in the growth stage. From the perspective of business direction, in addition to Qianlu Technology and Tangen Technology, the rest of the business direction of enterprises are focused on industrial applications, and the amount is also at the level of 100 million yuan. The application of the industrial field is more mature than the commercial field, whether from the perspective of market cultivation or large-scale application, the industrial application of mobile robots currently has a good foundation, and with the promotion of policies such as intelligent manufacturing and new infrastructure, capital is generally more optimistic about the application prospects of industrial application robots.
Development trend and industry early warning
Supply chains are tight and raw materials are facing rising prices
In the first quarter, affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Sino-US crisis, the epidemic and the price increase of raw materials, some core components of mobile robots such as lidar, motors, etc. are facing the risk of price increases, especially lidar, some foreign mainstream manufacturers have raised prices; at the same time, some motor manufacturers have also issued price increase announcements.
In addition to the price increase, delivery is also the main problem, mobile robots have most of the core supply chain manufacturers of the factory in jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai areas, the epidemic has a great impact on the logistics and transportation of the entire Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, the supply of raw materials is difficult to guarantee, and it is difficult to deliver to customers after the finished product goes offline.
Of course, for some domestic supply chain manufacturers, especially lidar companies, it is also a certain development opportunity, the supply of foreign companies is affected, but the project needs of ontology manufacturers can not wait, and finding domestic alternatives has become an inevitable trend. Domestic lidar manufacturers should grasp this window period in time to improve technical capabilities and polish products.
Project delivery and payment collection are difficult
With the rapid development of the mobile robot industry, behind the soaring order volume, the delivery ability of enterprises is also a great test, and "guaranteed delivery" is becoming a key topic in the entire industry.
In order to ensure the efficiency and quality of delivery, in addition to cultivating their own delivery teams, at present, some companies have begun to vigorously expand channels and empower partners, hoping to further improve their delivery capabilities.
For example, Quick Warehouse Intelligent has set up a full-time project manager to guide the project manager of the partner to deeply understand the delivery methodology of fast warehouse. It can provide universal and reliable robot clusters and background operating systems, as well as output tooling, modular, and standardized delivery capabilities, and deeply empower partners through the training system.
In fact, including Jizhijia, Huarui Technology and some enterprises have earlier begun to explore in terms of channel opening and other aspects, mobile robots are a non-standard customization attribute of a strong industry, the initial growth of enterprise projects may not have much impact, but when the enterprise enters the rapid growth period, orders soar, completely rely on their own delivery team to implement the project on the enterprise capital chain and delivery team test is huge, therefore, empowering partners, is the current head of the enterprise to transfer the main means of delivery pressure.
It is expected that many enterprises will face important issues of delivery difficulties in the third and fourth quarters.
Single product technology to program technology
In 2021, there have been many changes in the market of China's mobile robot (AGV/AMR) industry, among which the original single product technology has gradually changed to the main promotion solution technology, that is, the comprehensive solution capabilities of the enterprise itself are getting stronger and stronger, and more emphasis should be placed on the solution in different fields rather than the product itself, which is the progress of industry technology and the inevitable product of rapid market expansion.
In 2022, the industry still continued this development trend, such as the release of PCB intelligent logistics solutions by Youai Zhihe, the launch of one-stop deposit and bottom picking solutions by Jizhijia, the "intelligent stacking heavy-duty solutions" of Jingsong Intelligent, and the "Five Intelligent Handling New Modes" newly released by Zhongli Machinery.
In addition, there are many enterprises are also vigorously developing digital twins and other technologies and scale technologies, the future combination of solutions will be the norm and main force of enterprise competition.
The process of industry standardization has accelerated
Since 2022, driven by the alliance, the standardization process of the mobile robot industry for industrial applications is gradually accelerating. Recently, led by the China Mobile Robot (AGV/AMR) Industry Alliance and jointly compiled by 16 mainstream enterprises in the industry, the group standard of "Technical Specifications for Industrial Applications of Mobile Robots and Composite Robots" was officially released!
CMR Industry Alliance since its inception has been committed to promoting the standardized development of the industry, as of now, the alliance has formulated 11 group standards, in 2022, the alliance will also develop the "Industrial Application Mobile Robot Unmanned Forklift Technical Specifications", "Industrial Application Mobile Robot Box Storage Robot Technical Specification", "Industrial Application Mobile Robot and Its Scheduling System Data Interface Specification" three group standards.
Chart: List of 11 group standards for mobile robots for industrial applications (AGV/AMR).
Conclusion: Frankly speaking, this spring is the most torturous spring. Too many accidents, there are black swans, there are also gray rhinos. Overall, the overall performance in the first quarter was good due to the delay of some projects at the end of 2021, but the real test of our industry was in the second and third quarters, and the impact of the epidemic and supply chain would be concentrated in the second and third quarters. Therefore, enterprises should be prepared for a short "winter" to meet the demand explosion in the fourth quarter. In the long run, the epidemic will further increase the willingness of manufacturing enterprises to automate and upgrade, but as far as the epidemic is concerned, how to ensure delivery, do a good job in supply chain management, and maintain daily normal operations is the key.
Combined with the current form, the alliance enterprises need to huddle together for warmth, hug the group to go overseas to the market, fight the market; abandon the suicidal industry price war, accumulate grain, dig deep holes, train troops at home, and make money overseas.