Think about the last cold winter of the car market, but also back to the worst time of the epidemic in 2020, when the dealer inventory warning value exceeded 60%, but with the control of the state, the car market began to slowly pick up, but in recent times, according to the data provided by the association, the cold winter of the car market has come again.
From the 11th to the 17th of this month, passenger car retail sales fell by 39% year-on-year, passenger car wholesale fell by 51% year-on-year, in addition, according to the latest issue of the "China Automobile Dealers Inventory Warning Index Survey" (released by the China Automobile Dealers Association), the Inventory Warning Index of Chinese Automobile Dealers in March this year has reached 63.6%, according to the PMI compilation principle, 50% as a dry line, if the inventory warning value exceeds 50%, it indicates that the dealer inventory is too high and the market demand is low. Then the dealer's operating pressure and risk will become greater, which is a phenomenon of withering in the automobile market economy, and vice versa, it is regarded as normal, and the market is thriving.
So do you know what this data means?
To put it bluntly, this means that people's desire to buy a car is getting lower and lower, of course, this has a certain relationship with the epidemic, but it is not all its reason, after all, there are only a few places where the epidemic has broken out in recent times, and many car companies have stopped production factories in the city where the epidemic broke out, and the rest of the cities are almost unaffected, so what is the reason for the current situation that dealers can't sell?
Before saying the reason, I would like to remind you that it is not terrible for car companies to stop production, because as long as there is a market, the recovery of the automobile economy is only a matter of time, but according to the retail situation of the domestic narrow passenger car market in 2022, the market is still showing a downward trend (retail sales in January this year were 2.092 million units, down 4.4% year-on-year), in February of the same year, it fell by 39.9% month-on-month, and in March of the same year, it fell by 10.5% year-on-year, from this set of sales data, starting from 2022, The automobile market has been in a downturn, which means that the current market is struggling, and dealers can't sell at all.
There are two reasons why dealers can't sell:
Impact of the pandemic
According to the data provided by Wilson Monitoring, before the outbreak of the epidemic, there were about 1185 new outlets nationwide in the first quarter of 2020, but after the impact of the epidemic in January, the number of distribution stores closed nationwide reached 1651, resulting in > closures New, the decline reached 28.2%. It can be seen that at the beginning of the outbreak, many dealers have already closed their businesses. Although the follow-up car market has gradually picked up, but with the emergence of this disaster, many consumers have actually changed their consumption concepts, Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade Research Institute, said: "The epidemic has made people's consumption more rational! ”
Auto and oil prices rose
With the rise of raw materials for new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles have also ushered in a wave of collective price increases in recent times, such as Tesla, BYD, Ideal ONE, Xiaopeng models as we know it, there is a rising trend, not only that, even the price of fuel vehicles has also ushered in an increase, among which the representatives in the field of fuel vehicles, BMW and Mercedes-Benz have played a leading role in it. Not only that, coupled with the tightening of the welfare policy for new energy vehicles, the chain reaction brought about by this directly leads consumers to reduce their desire to buy.
In summary, the cold winter of the car market has quietly come, so next, it depends on how the car companies should deal with it.
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