Compared with the past few seasons, the competition in the playoffs this season is particularly fierce, no team is an absolute champion, and a large number of teams in the lower half have completed the upset.
To this end, the US media "fivethirtyeight" also updated the probability of winning the championship for 16 teams again after more than a week of playoffs in the first round of the playoffs.
Among them, the nets, the big favorites at the beginning of the season, have a championship probability of less than 0.1%, the Warriors 10%, and the first as high as 39%.
Less than 1% probability for 7 teams
The seven teams are the Bulls, Raptors, Nets, Hawks, Nuggets, Pelicans and Timberwolves, and the first five teams all have a probability of less than 0.1%, almost judging that they cannot compete for the championship.
The US media gave such a prediction based on the current big score, the Nets are 0-3 behind, and no team in the history of the league can turn the tables without falling behind 3-0.
It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of the playoffs, the Nets had a 2% chance of winning the championship, ranking 10th out of all 16 teams, and second in the second half of the division, behind the Jazz's 3%, when the Jazz's opponent Lone Ranger core Doncic was injured uncertainly.
As for the remaining four teams, they all trailed 1-3 in the series, with the Nuggets and Raptors in worse shape.
Because the team is 0-3 behind from the big score, it barely got back a game in the G4, rewriting the big score to 1-3 behind, and is at a disadvantage in terms of adjustment, and it is very likely to be directly eliminated in the G5.
The Bulls and Hawks are in slightly better shape, facing the Bucks and Heat are plagued by injuries, Middleton and Lowry are absent due to injury, but the overall game looks like the possibility of the two teams being upset is still minimal.
The remaining two teams are the Timberwolves 0.2 percent and the Pelicans 0.3 percent, two teams that represent dark horses in the playoffs this season, and although they made it to the playoffs through the playoffs, they tied 2-2 with the Grizzlies and Suns in the top half.
However, the configuration and experience of the two teams are obviously insufficient, and the Grizzlies still occupy an absolute advantage as long as they solve morant's ball distribution problem.
The Suns are at a disadvantage because Booker is absent due to injury, as long as Booker returns, the Pelicans will still be at a disadvantage, and even if the Pelicans finally complete the upset, it will be difficult to compete with opponents in the next round.
5 teams have a probability of more than 1%, but less than 10%
The five teams are jazz 2%, lone rangers 4%, Grizzlies 5%, 76ers 6%, and Heat 9%.
Judging from the performance of the first round so far, there are no small problems in the ranking of this file, first of all, the Heat's 9% is higher than the 76ers' 6% is obviously debatable.
Because the 76ers have shown stronger dominance in the series, although the Heat are the first in the East, the team's backcourt brain Lowry hamstring injury has a huge impact on the team's competitiveness.
The 5 percent of the Grizzlies is also controversial because the team is currently in a 2-2 draw with the Timberwolves, the situation is very unoptimistic, and the team's probability of reaching the first round has risen from 67% to 71%, which is really a bit confusing.
As for the Lone Rangers and Jazz, the two teams are not a big problem, although the two teams have reached a 2-2 draw, but the Lone Rangers are clearly dominant in the situation, and with the completion of Doncic's run-in, the Lone Rangers have an absolute advantage.
Therefore, the Lone Ranger not only has the advantage in the probability of winning the championship, but also reaches 55% of the probability of reaching the second round, which is 10 percentage points higher than the Jazz.
4 teams have a minimum probability of winning the championship by at least 10%
The four teams are bucks 10%, Warriors 10%, Suns 14% and Green Army 39%.
One of the most embarrassing is the Suns, as the first place in the regular season, a week after the start of the playoffs, the probability of the fall sharply, the probability of the first round of promotion fell from 85% to 78%, and the probability of winning the championship fell from 22% to 14%.
Because of Booker's injury problem, the team is currently tied at 2-2, and judging from the game presentation, the Pelicans seem to be the stronger team.
The remaining three teams are not a big problem, with the probability of advancing to the first round more than 95%, of which the Bucks and Green Army have a promotion probability of more than 99%, and the Warriors are more than 97%.
In terms of the probability of winning the championship, the Warriors improved by 1 percentage point compared to the start of the playoffs, and the Bucks fell by 3 percentage points because Middleton suffered an injury.
As the only team likely to complete the sweep in the first round, the Green Army's probability of winning the championship has further improved, from 32% at the beginning of the game to 39%, which is also due to their crushing offensive and defensive performance against the Nets.