Per edited: Bi Luming
Macron, 44, won again.
According to the latest news from Xinhua News Agency, according to the results of export polls released by a number of French media on the evening of the 24th, the current president Macron won the second round of voting in the French presidential election held on the same day, ahead of Marina Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right political party "National Union", and won re-election.
According to statistics from the Elabe polling company, cited by France's commercial FM television, Macron received 58% of the votes and Le Pen 42% of the votes. After the results of the export polls were announced, Le Pen admitted defeat and said he would devote himself to the election of the French National Assembly.
Macron made history this time, becoming the first French president to be successfully re-elected in 20 years, but tomorrow in France and Europe will hover at the crossroads of history.
Image source: Xinhua News Agency
Macron thanked the French people for their support after his victory
According to CCTV News on the 25th, at 20:00 local time on April 24, the second round of voting in the French presidential election ended. The results of the earliest export polls released by the French media show that macron, the current president and candidate of the Republican Front Party, won the election with 58.2% of the vote. Macron became the second French president to succeed Chirac in his second term. In addition, the "National Union" candidate Le Pen received 41.8% of the vote. This is the second time she has played against Macron in the second round after she reached the second round of the 2017 election.
The French presidency is five years old, and the elections are held on a "two-round majority system". In the first round of balloting, if no candidate obtains more than half of the votes, the candidate with the top two votes will participate in the second round of the ballot; the candidate who obtains the majority of votes in the second round of voting will win the presidential election. In the first round of voting for the French presidential election held on the 10th of this month, Macron and Le Pen scored in the top two votes, entering the second round of competition.
Image source: Xinhua News Agency
On the evening of April 24, local time, after the victory of French President Macron, he said on his personal social media that in the past five years, France has experienced various changes, including happy times, difficult times, and unprecedented crises. He thanked the French people for their trust in him to continue to lead France for the next five years.
At the same time, on the evening of the 24th local time, European Council President Michel, European Commission President von der Leyen and European Parliament Speaker Metzola posted on social media congratulating Macron on his successful re-election as President of France.
Michel said that "in these turbulent times, we need a stable Europe and a France that is committed to making the EU more independent." Von der Leyen said he looked forward to continuing to promote good cooperation with Macron. Metzola said she looks forward to working with Macron to tackle the challenges posed by today's increasingly uncertain world.
Macron shouted to Le Pen supporters: I am the president of all French
According to China News Service, French President Macron delivered a speech on the winning of the presidential election on the evening of the 24th local time, thanking the voters who "blocked the far right" and shouting to the supporters of his rival, Marina Le Pen, the presidential candidate of the French far-right party "National Union", stressing that he is "the president of all French people". Multiple export polls showed Macron, who was seeking re-election, won the second round of voting, beating Le Pen to win the presidential election. After the exit polls were announced, the Macron camp held a rally of supporters in the Place de Mars in central Paris.
Amid the music of "Ode to Joy," Macron took to the podium to deliver a 10-minute winning speech. He began by saying that in his past 5 years of office, he has experienced a period of joy and also experienced a special crisis. On April 24, the day most people chose him to continue to lead the country for the next 5 years. He was particularly grateful to the voters who had trusted him.
Macron said he knew quite a few voters voted for him, not to support his policies, but to "deter the far right." He expressed his recognition of his responsibility to this segment of the electorate and thanked them. He also referred to voters who had abandoned their votes, saying they should also respond to "their silence."
Image source: Xinhua News Agency
Macron shouted to Le Pen's supporters, saying that from now on he was not a candidate for a campaign camp, but "the president of all Frenchmen.". He said he knew that many voters chose the far right and had to find answers to the anger and disagreement behind their choices.
Macron briefly looked ahead to the next 5 years of his term, saying he would find better governance for a better 5 years and better services for the country and young people.
Le Pen said that night that she had no intention of leaving politics and would continue to lead the National Coalition in preparation for parliamentary elections in June. According to France's BFM television, Le Pen has called Macron to admit defeat.
France still holds the EU presidency. European Council President Michel and European Commission President von der Leyen have congratulated Macron on his victory.
What are Macron's achievements, gains and losses in the past five years?
According to the first financial report on the 24th, Colin Graham, director of the multi-asset portfolio of The Noble Investment Management Group, said in an interview with reporters that from the perspective of the post-epidemic French economy and employment rebound, Macron's reform is relatively successful. Macron reformed the labor market and lowered taxes, which benefited French companies, including start-ups. At the same time, he also focuses on improving public services such as early education.
But in addition to repelling traditional parties, Macron has brought more real influence to French politics. With the exception of the far left and the far right, there is currently no strong opposition in France. As Macron argues, if the centrists don't have enough support, then the extremist parties have a place to make more commitments in terms of the realistic policies that require the advocacy of incumbent centrists. Although the current election is the same as in 2017, Macron's advantage over Le Pen will be reduced in terms of support.
Paul Malliet, a researcher at the French Economic Observatory at Sciences Po, said that in recent times, the impetus for the French economy has come more from the government's "rescue package" during the epidemic, and it is difficult to say whether it is directly related to Macron's reforms. The effectiveness of Macron's economic reforms requires more data to be collected to see what happens.
In 2021, France's fiscal deficit will reach 6.5%, and public debt will account for 112.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), but high deficits may not pose much risk to the French economy. While public debt continues to soar, the current cost of borrowing in France is not high. Behind the Fed's continued "eagle", the European Central Bank still adopts an accommodative monetary policy. The European Central Bank announced the latest interest rate decision on the 14th, deciding to remain unchanged in the three key interest rates.
The high deficit will remain a major challenge for the French economy. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the contribution of foreign trade to France's GDP growth was negative 0.2 percentage points. There are two reasons behind this: First, France's high dependence on external energy has always been the "elephant in the room". Second, services such as tourism are an important source of France's trade surplus, and these industries are still disturbed by the epidemic. In addition to the epidemic and geopolitical factors, the causes of the above problems are closely related to the structure of the French economy and the strategic choice of the economy.
Guotai Junan pointed out in a recent research report that Macron's "reshaping France" reform has achieved certain results, but there are also many problems. Macron's series of reforms have achieved certain results. Before the epidemic, France's economic growth rate returned to a record high of about 2%, and the unemployment rate also fell rapidly. At the same time, France's fiscal deficit has been narrowing, slowing the rise in the government debt ratio. However, Macron's reforms have a neoliberal undertone and are less effective in terms of social equity, which has caused discontent.
Soon after he came to power, there was social unrest due to the increase in fuel taxes, and Macron was eventually forced to abolish the fuel tax. The problem of inequality in France has long been concerned, and Piketty is the collation and calculation of France's long-term income distribution data, and finally wrote the much-watched "Capital in the 21st Century".
During Macron's administration, income and wealth inequality in France has worsened further, with the income share of the top 1% rising from 9.77% in 2017 to 9.84% in 2021, and the wealth share of the top 1% rising from 25.57% in 2017 to 27.04%.
The days ahead will not be easy
According to the China News Network reported on the 25th, the challenges are far more than that. The strength of Le Pen's far right has become a "roadblock" for Macron to form a new government. The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the constant testing of his various internal reforms will not make his future life easy.
Le Pen's advocacy of France's priority is to be xenophobic and grouped in a "fantasy" and extreme way, advocating withdrawal from NATO to fight alone; Macron's pragmatism and "looking outward" tell the outside world through the election results that in a rapidly changing world, French voters believe that it is difficult to stand alone on their own, and the idea of uniting allies and strengthening the status and role of the EU has prevailed.
Macron has always been critical of the dominance of the United States in NATO, and he sought to form a European army early in his tenure in an attempt to move toward European strategic autonomy. During the Trump administration, macron angrily criticized NATO for being on the verge of "brain death" after a brief honeymoon period of speeches at the U.S. conference.
However, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Macron's mediation was not obvious, and France had to side with the United States and NATO, one step away from the dream of strategic autonomy. Macron believes that NATO has been "rescued from the dead."
Image source: Xinhua News Agency
Surprisingly, what is special about this election is that Western countries and Macron are equally anxious.
As a Putin supporter, Le Pen acknowledged that Crimea belongs to Russia and argued that the European security framework was wrong to exclude Russia. If Le Pen wins, the impact will be no different from Brexit and Trump's election as US president, becoming another "black swan" to take off in 2022.
Therefore, German Prime Minister Scholz, Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez, and Portuguese Prime Minister Costa jointly published an opinion article on the 21st, fiercely attacking Le Pen for conspiring with the "anti-democratic forces", which refers to Russia.
The European Anti-Fraud Office also accused Le Pen and his father, members of the National Union, of embezzling more than 600,000 euros of EU funds, but Le Pen countered that Europe was trying to interfere in France's internal affairs.
As the dust settles on the election, under the Triumphal Arch, it seems difficult to tell who is in Triumph.
Jiang Shixue, a distinguished professor at Shanghai University, pointed out that the new French government will face several challenges:
In terms of internal affairs:
First, we must further stimulate the economy at home so that the economy can get out of the negative impact caused by the epidemic as soon as possible;
Second, the commitments made during the campaign should be implemented;
Third, at present, there are continuous demonstrations in France, and it is necessary to do a good job in social stability and improve social order.
In terms of foreign relations, the new French government needs to consider:
First, how to deal with the spillover effects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, mainly referring to the refugee problem and energy problems;
Second, how to play An important role for France in transatlantic relations, especially how to deal with relations with the United States;
Third, how to promote European integration with Germany and some other EU member states, including how to strengthen Europe's "strategic autonomy".
Daily Economic News Synthesizes Xinhua News Agency, China News Service, China News Network, CCTV News, CBN
Daily economic news