Recently, the price of double credits has plummeted, which has had a great impact on the micro-electric vehicle market and has also aroused widespread concern and discussion in the industry. And listen to the big coffee of the Auto Elephant Self-Media Federation, how to analyze this.
"Nice car" Li Yunkai (2022 rotating chairman of the Auto Elephant Self-Media Federation):
The double integral stimulus is smaller, and the development of micro-electric vehicles is more stable
Micro-electric vehicles have never been born out of speculation, but to meet the real market demand.
In other words, the birth and development of micro-electric vehicles is not essentially because of the double credit policy, on the contrary, it is to meet the market demand for low-cost short-distance commuting. Otherwise, you can't explain why "old man music" can sweep the big city and small villages.
Needless to say, subject to the lower selling price, the micro-electric vehicle has a very low tolerance for the fluctuation of cost and benefit, so the lower price of the double integral transaction has indeed brought some tests to the micro-electric vehicle. But the impact wasn't as big as it thought.
The points of micro-electric vehicles are small, generally around 1.5. Combined with the changes in the price of the integral transaction, the cost of a micro-electric vehicle due to the fluctuation of the double integral transaction price increases by about two or three thousand yuan. Even if all of this cost change is transferred through the form of terminal price increases, the sales situation will not be too affected. A few days ago, there was a round of general increase in new energy models, and after the price increase of 4, 5,000 or even 2 or 30,000, sales continued to rise is the best example.
Of course, the double points policy did give birth to opportunists to hunt for food. A sharp drop in the price of double integral trading will also force speculators to leave the market. This will also make the entire micro-electric vehicle market more stable.
How will the next competition of micro-electric vehicles achieve high-end at low cost? This is a great test of the cost control ability of car companies and the ability to grasp consumer demand. Now it seems that Wuling, Chery New Energy, Euler these Chinese brands are still very good, bless them!
"Uncle Zhong driving the road" Xu Zhong:
The micro pure tram has eaten the dividends of the times and helped the car companies to complete the transformation and transition
In order to earn a double point profit, the miniature pure tram has been reversed in recent years. Many car companies have included the double integral income into the planning at the beginning of the listing of the model. Nowadays, in the face of the precipice decline in the expected price of new energy positive integrals, the revenue part should be discounted again. At the same time, in the environment of lack of core and less electricity, in order to ensure profits, the brand will tilt resources to high-end models and models with higher profits, compared with the plight of micro pure trams. In this case, improve the cost performance, and strive to achieve the consensus of the brand upward to become a small electric vehicle company. Increasing the configuration and improving the sense of technology have become good options.
As a product of the times under the double integration policy, the micro pure tram has eaten the dividend of the times and helped the car company complete the transition to electrification. Under the policy changes, how to better adjust and exert their enthusiasm also tests the layout of major car companies.
"Three drivers" Liu Zhixiang:
The dual credit system is close to completing the mission
As a binding and guiding policy for industrial development, the automobile dual-point system is close to completing its mission, and the future withdrawal from the historical stage is also just around the corner.
The development of China's new energy automobile exhibition industry is based on the following inevitability: 1. The energy dependence path is too single; 2. There are technical barriers in the traditional automobile exhibition industry; 3. Energy conservation and emission reduction are imperative.
However, from the beginning of development, the industrial base of the traditional fuel vehicle manufacturing industry has been formed, and the market-oriented promotion of new energy vehicle research and development, production and sales will inevitably encounter resistance from traditional car companies, and the double integral system will therefore come into being.
After entering 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles far exceeded expectations, a number of new energy vehicle companies grew rapidly under the policy dividend, and independent brand new energy vehicles took the lead in breaking the price barriers of high-end luxury cars of international brands.
The driving force of the trend is gradually similar to the binding force of industrial policy, market-oriented competition has formed a virtuous circle, and the decline in the price of double integrals has become inevitable.
Next, market-oriented means will gradually play a leading role, using double integral profits or subsidies in the new energy vehicle manufacturing deficit enterprises, if you can not optimize the cost to adapt to competition, will accelerate the withdrawal from the historical stage.
"W Power" Yan Yan:
Forcing car companies to "really build cars" and "build good cars"
Double integral diving is the trend of the times, and it can also glimpse the government's determination to transform pure electricity. You know, many car companies in the market to build mini cars, not at all to really sell to consumers, their own to find a network dating channel or registered online dating company self-directed, self-produced and self-sold, their real purpose is to earn points, which led to the emergence of a lot of clowns in the market, such as the year was strangled in the cradle of the Sailin Mai, I call it "forged car".
Of course, the micro pure electric market also has king players, such as Hongguang MINIEV, at the beginning many people thought it was a flash in the pan, from the past March car sales list results, it has now really become a big brother. It has not only become a transportation choice for emerging megacities such as Chengdu, but also led another way of travel for fourth- and fifth-tier small cities. This kind of really for the market, to meet the needs of users, is the "real car".
Therefore, although the double integral policy is an incentive mechanism for the government to stimulate transformation, it has been used as a means of speculation by some car companies, and with the gradual maturity of the pure electricity market and the addition of more powerful joint venture car companies, the double integral policy is already time to tighten. For the mini-car market, its tightening will fundamentally force car companies: "really build cars" and "build good cars", thereby accelerating the survival of the fittest of car companies and promoting the benign and rapid transformation of fuel to pure electricity.
"China Vision Auto" Zhang Shaojie:
The micro-electric market will become more mature and consumers will be more rational
In recent years, the double credit policy has been a means for the state to intervene to guide car brands in the Chinese market to balance the level of fuel consumption, and with the changes in the market, it may be an important criterion for alternative purchase subsidies. Since its implementation, the policy has promoted the development of new energy vehicles and accelerated the development of electrification for many big brands in the industry. At present, the car companies in the pursuit of low fuel consumption, hybrid, pure electric have a certain sales volume and rapid development, which makes the original fragrant points are not fragrant, the price shrinkage directly affects the original points as a profit indicator of the model, the most significant is the microelectric. Wholesale prices on the market, policy subsidies + double credit earnings. At present, the income of integrals has seriously dived, and the policy subsidy period has arrived, can micro-current still survive? First of all, it will lose its price advantage, the market price increase is inevitable, not long ago affected by the supply chain this year there has been a round of price increases, there must be some double integral factors. Secondly, the quality needs to be improved, the configuration needs to be enhanced, the original patchwork products are bound to be affected, the micro-electric market will tend to be more mature, and consumers will be more rational.
"Ghost Bucket Truck" Wang Kuijun:
The market will naturally adjust, and there will be fewer and fewer opportunities to exploit policy loopholes
As more and more OEMs enter the new energy automobile industry, and even in order to reduce emission standards to obtain points, the head iron is on the ground to launch a three-cylinder machine, resulting in the original lucrative double integral price diving, the original micro electric vehicle with the double integration policy and new energy national supplement, can be a good control of the terminal sales price. After the double integral price diving, coupled with the increasing cost of upstream components such as batteries and chips, the manufacturing cost of micro-electric vehicles that were originally priced at less than 30,000 yuan also rose rapidly, coupled with the increase in logistics costs caused by the epidemic, and even the news of the cancellation of national supplements for new energy vehicles next year, micro-electric vehicles may have a wave of sales in the second half of the year. But in the future, there will definitely be a general increase in the price of micro-electric vehicles, and even many car companies that are initially involved in this market segment will reduce production or stop production of micro-electric vehicles, after all, with the natural adjustment of the market, the opportunity to exploit policy loopholes will be less and less!
"The hero gets on the car" Ren Hui:
The market impact is limited, and the competition will be more intense in the future
There is no doubt that the double credit policy has always been the main driving force for the rapid development of new energy vehicles in mainland China, but it is not the most important motivation, after all, the rapid rise of an emerging market can never be separated from consumer support. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, by 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland will reach 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units respectively, both of which increased by 1.6 times year-on-year, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years, with a market share of 13.4%. Obviously, this data proves that new energy vehicles can achieve such rapid sales growth, the important motivation is the change in user consumption habits, after all, with the high maintenance cost of fuel vehicles, oil prices soaring and other problems emerging, leading more and more people to start to buy new energy models with lower cost and more environmental protection for daily use, especially micro-electric vehicles that can meet the needs of short- and medium-distance transportation within a fixed range, but also with the convenience of household 220V charging, easy handling characteristics and low price thresholds. It has quickly become the most popular model in the new energy market, so the change of double integrals will not have an impact on the micro-electric vehicle market, but with the favor of more and more users, the competition in the micro-electric vehicle market will be more intense!
"Che Doli" Wang Zhiliang:
The era of microelectricity, which simply relies on low prices to seize the market, has turned over
First of all, the new energy mini-vehicle market needs diversified supply to meet the escalating needs of young consumers. Those "old man music" with little scientific and technological content will become a gas product, and smaller and micro electric vehicles that are younger, smaller and complete, with high appearance, long endurance and high safety factor, will withstand the test and accelerate the A0-class and A00-level new energy vehicles to become boutique.
Secondly, car companies that control the opportunity and pay attention to technology research and development will develop healthily and benignly. In 2022, younger female consumers prefer beautiful, more quality products, such as Euler. Not only in terms of body color, it caters to the needs of the city's elite group, but also allows the product to increase the intelligent configuration, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of the product market. Therefore, the establishment of product and the same level of differentiation is the way out. Some car companies that will only stare at the government subsidy "mixed points" and the low safety factor are likely to be squeezed out of the increasingly competitive team under the double point diving policy.
Third, the momentum of rapid expansion of the micro-electric vehicle market will be curbed. Once, the policy of double integration became the driving force for the outbreak of new energy vehicles last year, but it also reversed the supply and demand of double integration. After the double integral price diving, for car companies, only in terms of products and technology to strengthen their own cultivation, to create "level" and "level" higher car is the preferred choice of car companies, to meet the young consumers more cost-effective, more sensitive operation, flexible travel needs of the model will be more popular, but also make the future of new energy mini car more clear.
In the face of the rise in raw materials, the double integral price diving is to carry out industry reshuffle. In addition to the urgent need to improve the technology of motor, battery, electronic control and space, another era of testing the gold content of vehicle companies will open up a new competitive pattern.
"Ah Gui looks at the car" Ling Yugui:
For the old man who does not make money and only earns double points, it will be a big shuffle
In the past few years, double credits have been an important source of profit for new energy vehicle companies, taking Tesla as an example, tesla in 2020 through the sale of carbon emission credits to earn up to $1.58 billion in revenue, up nearly 2 times from $593 million in 2019. At the same time, the double integral has also spawned the popularity of "elderly music" such as Wuling Hongguang MIN I EV, Euler White Cat, Changan BenBEN EV, and Chery Little Ant.
However, with the outbreak of new energy vehicles in 2021, the price of double integrals is getting lower and lower, and the profit contribution to car companies is also very limited, coupled with the government's determination to electrify the trend, the "exit" of double integrals is also an inevitability, which is undoubtedly a big reshuffle for the elderly who do not make money and only earn double points!
As we all know, although the current development of new energy vehicles is relatively fast, most new energy vehicle companies such as Weilai and Xiaopeng have not yet got rid of losses. The price change of the integral market in 2022 is a challenge for many new energy vehicle companies and even traditional car companies that rely on "old age music", but it is also an opportunity for traditional fuel vehicles such as Volkswagen, Honda, and Nissan. One is to breathe a sigh of relief for the points of ordinary fuel vehicles; the other is to introduce some personalized performance cars to divide the market segment and inject a new soul into the brand, so that consumers can also enjoy more interesting models.
"Che Terresia" Luo Yu:
The invisible hand reduces intervention, and car companies must move forward rationally
The double points policy, like a pair of invisible market hands, has played a due outstanding contribution in a special historical period. Now, with the deepening of the positive transformation of car companies, the public's rejection of new energy vehicles and even rush to buy, the task of double integrals has been successfully completed. Therefore, its price is lower, which is a good phenomenon conducive to the sustainable development of the industry.
Let car companies pay more attention to the product itself, rather than what kind of car to build to earn points faster and cheaper. This is a bit like a student in school, if you want to really get ahead, rely on opportunism, to deal with the test, absolutely not; you have to show real skills, you have to have the ability to laugh in the vortex of market competition to the end.
Therefore, after the change of the dual integral policy orientation, it is equivalent to sounding the alarm for new energy vehicle companies, especially micro-electric vehicle companies, and it is time to rationally think about their future sustainable development.
ps: The above rankings are in no particular order