Games are offering alternative places to go| rethinking digital number twelve

Hu Yong/Wen

Easily slip into a happy world

According to 2019 statistics, more than 2 billion people worldwide play video games, including 720 million Chinese (more than half of the population) and 150 million Americans (almost half of the population), 60% of whom play it every day.

People who play games have long since ceased to be limited to young men. In the United States, 41% of gamers are women, and 64 million are children. When Grand Theft Auto V went on sale in September 2013, it generated $1 billion in revenue in three days, and no other entertainment product could make that much money in such a short period of time.

Video games are now one of the most lucrative industries in the entertainment industry, surpassing film, television, music, sports and books. Games are also the most popular and profitable mobile app genre, accounting for a third of all downloads and 75% of Apple's App Store revenue.

The epidemic control from 2020 to 2021 has inserted wings into the game. Newzoo's data shows that the number of global gamers in 2021 increased by 5.3% year-on-year, with about 3 billion gamers. By 2024, Newzoo's 2021 Global Game Market Report predicts that the output value of the game industry will reach $218.7 billion, with an annual growth rate of 8.7%.

Not only are video games more ubiquitous than they were 30 years ago, but they've also become incredibly complex: you can easily spend hundreds of hours not only completing wave after wave of missions in Destiny 2, but also exploring the vast fantasy kingdom of The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, a virtual world that is so gorgeously rendered that every piece of grass reacts to the pressure of footsteps or the breeze. Fortnite combines the thrill of live events, first-person shooter strategy combat, and outrageous weapons to depict it all with a playful cartoon aesthetic. In The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt, the player's choices change the state of the world and ultimately lead them to one of 36 possible endings. Red Dead Redemption II combines high-quality graphic content with a vast playable environment that allows players to decide not to achieve their goals, but simply wander around in search of their chosen purpose, developing a stronger relationship with their characters than ever before. Works like Control and Death Stranding show that mainstream games can be used as a storytelling medium, comparable to film.

Games increasingly deal with complex and difficult subjects, challenging people's way of thinking, and those who never participate in the game simply do not have the opportunity to experience these unique narratives and ideas outside of such interactive mediums.

All games — whether table games, field games, or video games — are simulated. They create microscopic mirror images of the real world, or make their own gestures about the imaginary world.

Today, these simulations have become so extensive, complex, and immersive that they can no longer be classified as mere entertainment, like in-flight entertainment or pop songs. They are alternative realities.

The experience of gaming is rich and profound, becoming a whole new genre of mainstream entertainment. As modern video games pursue a high degree of immersion, their carefully constructed dreams have begun to cast seductive contrasts with the cold, sometimes disappointing world off-screen. Everything else in people's real lives suddenly seems a lot harder than games — and less satisfying.

By definition, games have rules: goals are often very clearly defined, but seem to be endless, requiring a long-term commitment; skills can be constantly improved, supplemented by routines and daily progress, and seem to replace traditional work well; and although players are often placed in challenging environments, the game itself constantly offers tutorials, eliminating the consequences of failure in the real world, and essentially guaranteeing that players can be rewarded for their efforts.

Games give players a sense of purpose and accomplishment, the kind of self-worth that is difficult to achieve in real life, and something that newcomers to the workplace are often deprived of in a punitive job market.

On the other hand, the closure caused by the current COVID-19 crisis has made video games a special attraction. Many people are trapped in their homes, and the game offers a delightful way to escape from the doudou room. The ability of video games to simulate places is unmatched by any other medium.

Open-world games like Skyrim, Red Lifeline 2, or The Witcher 3 are built around huge, explorable spaces, sometimes virtually equivalent to hundreds of square miles, with exquisite geography and changeable weather. They can take days or weeks to explore thoroughly, and at their best, they can be unexpectedly beautiful: you can enjoy the sun, climb mist-shrouded peaks, or wander the crowded city streets.

Why suffer in a place where you don't have a place to be when you can so easily slide into a world designed to make you happy, and the world is more than happy to keep you?

So, not surprisingly, from 2014 to 2017, American men in their 20s worked 1.8 hours less per week than they did 10 years ago (also measured by a three-year term); at the same time, the amount of time they played video games increased by exactly equal amounts. An economic study suggests that this correlation is no coincidence that young men in the U.S. are indeed working less in order to play more games.

If innovations in domestic work helped women enter the workforce in the 1960s and 1970s, would innovations in leisure — like league of Legends — remove some men from the labor market today?

Games are the key to emerging social scenarios

The magic of games, in addition to the entertainment value provided by the product itself, is also an increasingly important sticky factor in recent years: the social nature of games.

As Jorge Huguet, PlayStation's general manager for Spain and Portugal, puts it: "PlayStation is ultimately an entertainment machine that you interact with, but it has an amazing social dimension. Put on your headphones and you can connect with anyone in the world. ”

It's like players are greeting each other: Okay, we're still playing alone, but we're actually together.

In the case of Fortnite, for example, it can be played alone, but often constitutes a social experience where friends can team up in pairs or four. If they're not together, they communicate through FaceTime, headsets connected to the game system, etc., to coordinate strategies, alert teammates to threats, support each other, and exchange jokes. A large number of social factors make the game more engaging.

Large-scale social video games didn't become popular until the release of World of Warcraft in late 2004. These games are very different from more rudimentary games such as Pong and Space Invaders, which older people play since childhood.

Since the first generation of games, video gamers have evolved into a "sect" that goes far beyond the limitations of platforms or consoles. The feeling of belonging to the same community is what takes the entertainment category of video games to a "nother level."

Games like World of Warcraft are among the most in-depth online games, with thousands of people occupying a persistent virtual world at the same time. Players can form connections and hostilities in these games that span years. You can invite any friend in real life to join you on a long virtual adventure, and of course you can choose to deal with strangers, which brings extra excitement.

The shift in video games and internet technology over the past few decades has made it unnecessary for people to play games with friends in the same room.

Innovations in game design and platforming increase opportunities for interaction and socializing while playing. Video games are designed as social experiences, and a PlayStation is also a phone. These changes allow players to play with others in person, online remotely, and with different types of people. For example, with friends you know, with friends you only know online, with non-friends online. These features enhance the player's chances of meaningfully interacting and getting along with friends and others while playing.

For team players, the game provides a sense of waking up in the morning with a goal: I'm trying to improve a skill, my teammates are counting on me, and my online community depends on me.

It sounds like a natural way to get work done with a colleague. Phil Harrison, vice president of Google, said: "One of the most exciting things from a content perspective is the new generation that is now entering the workforce and who have been playing games all their lives. The game is completely second nature to them and is not a strange career choice. ”

An entire generation grew up connected to the world through video games. It's not just about the game itself, but the answers to a series of questions involved: Where do you go after school? Where do you meet your friends? What are those shared experiences that you like to go with your friends?

From what kind of entertainment expression the new generation likes, it can be seen that we are currently in the process of a cultural transformation. One example is that while the game industry is booming, the music industry is struggling with multiple crises. Games are replacing music as the key to emerging social scenes.

Where rock and hip hop used to be the clump of style, cyberpunk and fantasy games have inspired a new generation. Music venues used to be the places where youth movements found their most exciting forms, but now young people don't go to concerts, but instead play games and small talk with friends online. In a study by entertainment brand Whistle, 68 percent of U.S. Gen Z (specifically those born between the late 1990s and early 2010s) said gaming was an important part of their identity, 91 percent said they played video games regularly, and 74 percent said video games helped them keep in touch with their friends.

Interact with reality, or wander away from reality

It is undeniable that video games have undergone a huge evolution from the first 2D models that appeared in the second half of the 20th century to the virtual reality and immersive experiences that can be experienced today.

For decades, virtual reality technology has seduced gamers with the prospect of a fully immersive experience. But the technology has been slow to deliver on that promise. VR is still a niche category to date compared to other game categories, accounting for less than 0.5% of all game sales in 2020.

The first obstacles come from bulky helmets and high prices. Most VR headsets weigh more than a pound and must be tightly tied to the user's face, and the real world is completely blocked. This experience clashes with the gamer's typical game model: people are used to spending hours comfortably immersed in the couch. Unless companies slim down their VR headsets, get rid of cumbersome cables, and lower prices, most gamers will continue to shrink back.

Second, in its current form, VR goes against the social desires that people often crave. VR is a solitary experience, wearing a helmet means excluding others, and players will feel like they are isolating themselves from the social environment. Therefore, the future of VR must point to social VR, that is, by providing a social experience, allowing users to interact and hang out in real time.

Third, we are on the way from VR version 1.0 to version 2.0, and VR technology still needs to be perfected. What needs to be achieved include eye tracking, a larger field of view, higher resolution, better audio, and six degrees of freedom activity (i.e., up and down, left and right, front and back), and breakthroughs in haptic feedback.

Imagine the feeling of touching when you pick up ammo in a first-person shooter, or hold the steering wheel of a rally car, or even feel the powerful blow from your opponent.

Augmented reality (AR) is a different story. The familiar Pokémon Go is an augmented reality mobile game in which digital objects (colored critters known as Pokémon) cover a person's natural vision.

The game is most people's first contact with AR and remains the technology's biggest success story, generating more than $5 billion in sales. The real secret of its success is the fusion of the virtual and realistic parts of the game, the interplay between digital characters and physical locations.

This explains part of the reason AR games take off faster than VR games: people are more interested in games that interact with reality than in games that remove them from reality entirely. Pokémon GO does exactly what it does: push people to specific locations instead of getting caught up in a helmet.

Because of this, at least in the short term, AR will prove to be a fertile ground for game designers better than VR. AR games have gained the most traction on mobile phones so far. But tech companies like Facebook, Apple, Snap and Magic Leap believe ar ar will be done through specially crafted glasses in the future. With the further development of technology, AR glasses are likely to be replaced by retinal technology and brain implants. Brain-computer interfaces will allow to bypass our eyes and other sensory organs for a complete simulated sensory experience.

Will VR or AR go viral and make truly immersive games mainstream? By 2030, corresponding technological breakthroughs are sure to emerge, and it could and needs to be driven by entirely new genres of gaming and add social elements in new ways.

Thinking, Fighting, Feeling: Artificial Intelligence in Video Games

When it comes to the real impact on the game experience, the role of AI will be even greater: not only in the game itself, but also in the development process.

The concept of artificial intelligence has been around in games for decades — most notably non-player characters, such as the colorful ghosts in Pac-Man or the innocent bystanders in Grand Theft Auto.

In recent years, game makers have taken a more sophisticated approach to NPCs. Many NPCs are now programmed into behavior trees, which allows them to make more complex decisions. For example, the enemy aliens in Halo 2 have the ability to work together and coordinate their attacks, rather than rushing to the muzzle of the gun one by one, as in a cheesy action movie.

However, NPCs can only do what is written into their code. Their behavior, no matter how clever they may seem, is still determined in advance by the game's designers. In the future, can we expect to see more advanced artificial intelligence appear in business games? It's possible, but not everyone believes it will come soon.

Understandably, game studios don't want games to have bursts of behavior from artificial intelligence. You can try to build a cool, comprehensive AI system that allows a character to behave in ways that the designer didn't expect. But if there are too many of these situations, there's no guarantee in which direction the story will go and whether the player will have any fun.

In other words, even if we could give NPCs the idea to run freely in the game, their autonomy could lead to a less fun experience for the player.

A rogue NPC may decide to shirk the responsibility of helping the player to the next level, or to take the player to a meaningless mission where nothing will happen. In addition to the challenges of game design, free-range NPCs are also impossible if considered from a purely economic point of view.

It is certainly possible to place more complex NPCs in the game. But if this costs a lot of money and doesn't improve the player experience, the studio loses the incentive to do so. Still, some designers insist on making improvements to NPCs, especially finding ways to make NPCs more believable and human-like.

In May 2021, Sony announced that Sony AI, the company's artificial intelligence research arm, will work with PlayStation developers to create the role of intelligent computer control. Sony said: "Using reinforcement learning, we are developing game ARTIFICIAL agents that can become players' opponents or collaborating partners in the game." ”

Reinforcement learning is an area of machine learning in which AI effectively teaches itself how to act through trial and error. In short, these intelligent computer-controlled characters will mimic human players. In a way, they think.

This means that developers will increasingly explore elements such as natural language processing, player modeling, and machine learning to develop more realistic, responsive AI characters and allow them to interact more subtly with players. Ultimately, AI's biggest challenge is to mimic the most complex and mysterious ability of the human brain: imagination. If AI could generate narrative content, the face of the game would be completely rewritten.

Virtual reality is real reality?

Without mentioning the metaverse, the discussion of the future of the game would be incomplete. Encouraged by many of the world's most important tech companies, there is a sense that the metaverse is coming. Although it is far from a unified concept, most people will agree that we are collectively working to become more involved in simulated worlds that are even more infinite than our real world.

As early as when the metaverse was a philosophical plaything in fiction, the virtual world was often used as a dystopian warning about the future. Orson Scott Card's 1985 novel Ender's Game uses computer-generated worlds to fight war. Neal Stephenson's 1992 novel Snow Crash depicts an entire class of people who are so fascinated by what exists in the metaverse that they insert themselves permanently into it and are called "gargoyles" because they are disfigured in reality. It has to be said that this can be roughly counted as a prophetic description of screen addiction.

In the 1999 film The Matrix, computer simulations of "Dreamworld" were tools for enslaving humans. Red Pill or Blue Pill? Simulation or reality? "You take the blue pill and the story ends. You wake up in bed and believe everything you want to believe. After eating the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I can show you how deep the rabbit hole is. "The metaphor of the red-and-blue pill has already had a life of its own. Shortly after Facebook's rebranding, the official Account of The Matrix posted an image of the pill on Twitter with the caption: "Now based on real events." The choice is yours. ”

Web 2.0 connects us to the web community. Web 3.0, on the other hand, through virtual headsets and body sensors, hopes to put us in the middle of the internet. In Zuckerberg's words, the metacosm is a kind of "embodied internet" that "because you're not just browsing the content, you're in it."

As technology becomes more immersive, the line between what's real and what's not will become blurred, and it's only a matter of time before we make the leap between the two in one way or another.

Today, the game world of the metaverse plays a role in social experience. For some, it's a story-driven adventure game like World of Warcraft, which redefined MMORPG (Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game), or FORTNite, which redefined MMORPG. For others, it's a world-building game like Minecraft. The idea of social gaming has long been integrated into the metaverse, and in fact it can be seen as a precursor to the metacosm.

Whatever form the game takes, it will become more common over the next decade and take a bigger share of the media space. Perhaps the most exciting consequence of this growth is that games will continue to be decontaminated as a legitimate form of entertainment, art, sports, and technology.

It can be both a social phenomenon and a form of escapism, which is especially needed in this day and age – there is a saying that "escapism is necessary, even healthy".

Philosopher David Chalmers argues that virtual reality is real reality. Virtual worlds generated by computers do not need to be fake or fictional realities, we can live meaningful lives in VR. We may even be in a Matrix-style virtual world — and if that's the case, it's not that bad.

He believes that eventually many people will spend most of their lives in these environments, just as today people choose to emigrate to another country. Chalmers writes: "Given that virtual worlds have so many ways that may transcend non-virtual worlds, living in virtual worlds will often be the right life choice." ”

At that point, games will no longer be our alternative place, but our place to go. In our digital future, the real world will become more and more like a virtual world. If the process of the metaverse forming a mixed space is seen as the fusion of the real world and the virtual world, then I prefer to understand the dissolution of this boundary as the encroachment of the virtual world on the real world. And what can restrain this encroachment is not space but time.

(The author is a professor at the School of Journalism and Communication, Peking University)