What model does China's chip industry follow? |which will Chinese chips rise?

The problems and dilemmas faced by Chinese chips, in "Why Chinese chips have not developed for decades? |Why will Chinese chips rise?" has been discussed in detail in the article.

If we want to change this situation, we must have a suitable development method for China. In this regard, it has also triggered a series of debates:

Some people have proposed that we can learn from the "two bombs and one satellite" model to use the strength of the whole country to break through the chip problem.

Some people also believe that under the vigorous promotion of the whole country, at present, we have made some achievements, and what we have to do now is to make a breakthrough in one fell swoop.

Some people believe that chips are suitable for barrel theory, and we should make up for shortcomings and comprehensively develop the industrial chain.

This article discusses these arguments one by one.

Foca Intelligence

01

Why is the "two bombs and one star" model not suitable for chips?

Some people asked, "two bombs and one star" have been built, and the small chip cannot be made? It is nothing more than the use of national resources to concentrate on tackling key problems. In fact, the "two bombs and one satellite" model is not suitable for chips.

First, "two bombs and one satellite" only needs to solve the problem of having or not having in a certain sense - as long as it is successfully developed, the resources invested are one-time, and once solved, they can manage several generations.

As for its performance, it is not so important, especially the "two bombs", no matter what magnitude it is, it has a terrifying destructive power.

However, chip investment is often billions or even tens of billions of dollars, and the three conditions of laboratory success, mass production, and time are indispensable.

Second, the chip industry follows the Moore's Law of iterative acceleration, the chip process is upgraded day by day, and the domestic system is lagging behind a long way, which means that under the influence of Moore's law, we will stand on a higher platform than once to compete with the winners.

It is a fact that the civil chip research and development technology and production technology of the United States, Japan and other countries are ahead of China, and they will iterate out new products in ten or even months.

This also dooms China to face a vicious circle in which the level of technology cannot keep up.

Third, the social conditions for the development of "two bombs and one satellite" are completely different from the current one.

The quality of the participants of the two bombs and one star is very high, even if the salary income is very small, it represents a realm of experts and scholars in that era, but now most enterprises have to consider the reality of profitability.

Fourth, the relevance of the chip industry is completely different from that of military products.

The performance requirements of military chips are actually not high, only for stability, reliability and anti-interference ability in a variety of complex geomagnetic environments have very high requirements, too advanced commercial chips lack stability.

The application environment of the civilian chip is different.

Fifth, the chip industry needs market share to form self-hematopoiesis, rather than blindly investing in the state.

If every round of competition relies on external investment, whether it is financial support or capital markets, it will face a bottomless pit.

Because if you want to support the development of chips, it means that you must also support the civil engine, operating system, simulation software and other industries related to it, and none of them can be less.

It can be seen that China's chip industry does not apply the "two bombs and one star" model.

So, what path should China's chip development take?

Foca Intelligence

03

Short board or strong long board?

In the past ten years, China's chip design, packaging and testing have made great achievements. Taking the packaging and testing as an example, among the top ten packaging and testing manufacturers in the world, changdian technology, Tongfu Microelectric and Tianshuihuatian, which Chinese mainland, ranked third, sixth and seventh respectively.

Success in local areas has brought controversy: whether the future path of China's chips is to continue to play the advantages of the strong long board, or to make up for the shortcomings to complete the industrial optimization.

1. How difficult is it to make up for shortcomings?

At present, China's core areas of manufacturing, equipment, materials and other industries are still far from the world's leading countries such as the United States, making it impossible for China to form a complete and effective localization industrial chain, and making up for these shortcomings requires great motivation and patience.

According to Moore's Law and the reality of the situation, the integrated density of the chip doubles every 1-2 years. The excessively rapid development speed has also made China always lag behind in the process of technology research and development.

At the same time, the nationalization of technology through purchases or mergers and acquisitions is often replaced by new process technologies in just a few years.

Taking the lithography machine that manufactures chips as an example, the current process level of China's domestic lithography machine is 90 nanometers, and Shanghai Microelectronic Equipment Company has completed the first domestic immersion lithography machine with 28 nanometer process in the past two years. At present, the world's most advanced ultraviolet lithography machine technology has reached the 5 nanometer level.

The speed of making up for shortcomings is difficult to keep up with the pace of development.

2, strong long board is not as good as overtaking in curves

At present, the further improvement of the accuracy of the lithography process is a decisive factor for the development of the semiconductor industry, but it is difficult for the design and packaging of China's long board to lead the world or even change the industry pattern.

Therefore, at this stage, it seems more feasible to achieve overtaking in the curve of the chip industry.

From the current situation, photonic computing may be a breakthrough.

On the one hand, high performance gives it an innate advantage. Photonic devices switch faster than electronic devices, and light waves have different wavelengths, frequencies, polarization states and phase information, which can be used to represent different data, so photonic computing has the inherent high-dimensional parallel computing characteristics.

On the other hand, photonic chips will also be the hardware architecture of future AI computing, with the current expansion in the field of AI and more and more industrial applications, photonic chips may completely eliminate traditional GPUs in the future and become one of the candidate solutions for future quantum computing.

At present, China has successfully developed the first photonic chip of orbital angular momentum waveguide, and Huawei has made a technology called "optical computing chip, system and data processing" in this field, and in the future, China will have greater breakthroughs.

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