Recently, the topic of "why young people don't love to change their mobile phones" has aroused heated discussion among netizens. In fact, not only young people, but also the frequency of consumer replacement has shown an overall downward trend in recent years. From the perspective of mobile phone manufacturers' shipments, in February 2022, the total shipment volume of the domestic mobile phone market was 14.9 million units, a year-on-year decline of 31.7%. Total shipments from January to February this year were 47.9 million units, down 22.6% year-on-year.
Why is it difficult for new mobile phones to easily capture the favor of the market? What are the industry trends behind the data? How should mobile phone brands make efforts to improve product attractiveness? This issue of Digital Reading China takes you through.
Look at the demand ————
The overall shipment of mobile phones rebounded and fell, and the user replacement cycle became longer
The picture shows the shipment volume of the domestic mobile phone market in recent years. Draft: Wang Renhong
According to a survey by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the overall shipments of mobile phones in the domestic mobile phone market continued to decline from 560 million units in 2016 to 308 million units in 2020. Mobile phone shipments picked up in 2021, with annual shipments reaching 351 million units.
5G mobile phones are an important driving force to pull the overall recovery of domestic smartphone shipments in 2021. Relevant data show that 75.9% of the new machines sold in 2021 are 5G smartphones, and their shipments increased by 63.5% year-on-year.
However, this rebound trend has not been extended to 2022, and in the first two months of this year, the total domestic mobile phone shipments were 47.9 million units, down 22.6% year-on-year.
One reason for the decline in mobile phone sales is that mobile phones are more durable. "With the improvement of product quality and performance configuration, the use cycle of mobile phones will naturally be extended." Duo Hao, deputy chief engineer and senior engineer of the Thiel Terminal Laboratory of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, said that this trend has appeared in the world, and recent statistics show that the global mobile phone user replacement cycle has been extended to 31 months, and the mainland mobile phone user replacement cycle has also reached 28 months.
Another major reason for the decline in mobile phone sales is the normal decline in market demand after a short-term outbreak. Judging from the data in recent years, in 2016, domestic mobile phone shipments peaked at 560 million units. Experts said that this is mainly due to the replacement demand brought about by the popularity of 4G, full Netcom, dual-card dual standby mobile phones that year, major manufacturers in the increase in the production of new mobile phones at the same time, by reducing the price of old mobile phones to reduce inventory, in the "one increase and one decrease" under the dual influence of the push up the rise in mobile phone shipments that year. Subsequently, in the iterative process, multiple mobile phone terminals converged to one terminal, and mobile phone shipments gradually fell after a short-term increase.
"The iteration of technology will bring about an increase in shipments in the short term, but the development of the industry has its own laws, and with the popularization of products, the market will often gradually return to normal after high growth." Duo Hao said that the ups and downs and fluctuations of the mobile phone market are normal market phenomena. The longer user replacement cycle will affect global mobile phone shipments to a certain extent, and the impact on the domestic mobile phone market remains to be seen in the subsequent market performance.
Wang Xi, research manager at IDC China, believes that although the overall domestic market shipments show positive growth in 2021, the level of end-user demand has not shown a significant improvement in the short term. 2022 will be a year of continued challenges from the perspective of overall market size.
Look at the price --
The average price of newly listed models has risen, and the price of consumers buying 5G mobile phones has dropped
Often, in addition to the preference for mobile phone system, performance and appearance, price often becomes one of the main factors considered by consumers when buying mobile phones. By comparing multiple data, it is found that in recent years, mobile phone prices have shown different trends in both supply and demand. On the one hand, the average price of new mobile phones launched by the market has shown a continuous upward trend; on the other hand, with the continuous maturity of technology, the actual price of 5G mobile phones purchased by consumers has continued to decline.
The figure shows the average price of new models listed by mainstream brands in that year from 2019 to 2021. Draft: Wang Renhong
According to the price survey of mainstream brand models on the market by Yuehu Data, in the three years from 2019 to 2021, the average price of new models listed by mainstream brands in that year was 2609 yuan, 2971 yuan and 3357 yuan, which means that the average price of new models in 2020 and 2021 increased by 14% and 13% year-on-year.
Industry insiders believe that behind the price increase of new products is the response of mobile phone companies to balance production costs and promote the high-end transformation of brands.
According to Yuehu data analysts, affected by the repeated global epidemic, supply chain restrictions, inflation and other factors, the upstream cost of battery raw materials, components and other upstream costs have risen, and mobile phone companies need to adjust the market through price increases. At the same time, as the competition in the industry becomes more and more fierce, consumers' demand for product quality only increases, and domestic mobile phone brands are actively competing for the high-end market and launching more high-end models to enhance their competitiveness.
"On the whole, the global epidemic, market competition pattern, etc. are relatively long-term influencing factors, it is expected that the price increase of smart phones will not be much ease in the next 1-2 years, coupled with the 5G mobile phones of major enterprises will gradually enter the market, the average price of smart phones may rise accordingly." The analyst said.
Different from the "high-end" positioning of mobile phone companies, "high quality and low price" is still an important factor for more users to consider. From the demand side data, taking the 5G smartphone with the highest proportion of shipments as an example, in the past year, 5G smart phones in the range of 1000-2000 yuan are more favored by consumers.
According to data from the Thiel Terminal Laboratory of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in 2021, the price range with the highest proportion of 5G smartphone shipments in the mainland moved down from 2000-3000 yuan to 1000-2000 yuan, and the share of 5G mobile phones in the 1000-2000 yuan price segment reached 39.1%, an increase of 22.9 percentage points over 2020.
"Looking forward to the next stage, the rapid iteration of mobile phones will promote the reduction of the application cost of technology in mobile phone production, thereby further reducing the entry threshold of 5G mobile phones and improving coverage." Duo Hao said, "We are concerned that the price of some 5G smartphones has dropped below 1,000 yuan, and the range of consumer groups covered by 5G mobile phones has been further expanded." It is believed that as the world gradually recovers from the impact of the epidemic and the technology continues to mature, consumers will continue to enjoy more affordable and better products and services. ”
Look at innovation ——
Product "subversive" innovation needs to rely on industrial synergy and joint efforts
The figure shows the mobile phone penetration rate in mainland China from 2012 to 2021. Draft: Wang Renhong
Data show that in recent years, the number of mobile phone users in the mainland has been growing, the total number of mobile phone users in 2021 has reached 1.643 billion households, the population penetration rate rose to 116.3 units / 100 people, higher than the global 104.3 units / 100 people.
As a terminal product carrying mobile applications, the mainland mobile phone market has gradually stabilized after rapid growth, from incremental to stock market competition. In this context, major mobile phone companies have invariably chosen to adjust their strategic direction to adapt to the development of the market.
Duo Hao said that in order to enhance product competitiveness and win the favor of users, mobile phone companies are gradually abandoning the original "machine sea" tactics to the precision machine model, increasing investment in product research and development, and constantly improving the level of independent innovation in self-developed chips, imaging systems, folding screens/curling screens, fast charging and other aspects.
However, although manufacturers have been increasing their investment in innovation in recent years, from a global perspective, the current mobile phone industry technology has developed to a more mature stage, and new breakthrough points have not yet emerged.
The general experience of consumers is that the core functional technology innovation of mobile phones is not as "amazing" as in previous years, and the mobile phones purchased three or four years ago are now "enough" to use. "The function of the mobile phone now is not much different from a few years ago, there is no novelty, and it can be used to make it up." "Rather than innovating in hardware, I would like to see breakthroughs in software." Behind the netizens' "spitting", it reflects the consumers' expectations for the "subversive" innovation of mobile phones.
Market analysts admit that just the stacking and optimization of configuration and performance has made it difficult for consumers to feel the obvious difference in the user experience. If you want more young consumers to pay for new products, you still need to iterate and innovate from the underlying technology, have your own core technology, and have unique competitive advantages.
"We must see that the market and consumers are full of expectations for mobile phone product innovation, and hope that there will be an epoch-making, more innovative interaction mode and higher experience quality of the emergence of a new terminal." These can not be achieved by relying on a single point of force, but need to work together to promote technological breakthroughs and industrial innovation through industrial collaboration. Duo Hao said.
It is foreseeable that with the development of the digital economy rising to a national strategy, enterprise innovation will step to a new level in industrial synergy and integrated development in the future, and there will also be richer and more innovative products entering the market to meet the growing demand for high-quality information consumption of mainland consumers.
Source: People's Daily News