A few days ago, Hua Xi wrote an article analyzing how many gold beads players can get in each season, as well as the probability of drawing cards, and found that readers do not care about "probability".
However, the response from 2 fans is very meaningful.
1: A bit of a metaphysical draw card of a scientific nature
2: With a number of 5 times the probability, it is not necessary to draw the desired card
What is the world like?
The world is the reach of one's own knowledge.
One: a metaphysical draw card with a scientific nature
A fan's message made Hanagi feel very comforted, he introduced a good way to "change the card drawing sequence" to Hanagi, and Hanagi looked at it and felt that it made some sense.
This friend's name is [710 Yige], I don't know if it is the name of the game or the name of the alliance.
Here's his original text:
The draw card is as pseudo-random as roulette, and basically can only go to a part:
With n/7, turn seven squares each time, and you will find that there are many repetitions, but somewhat different, there is no randomness in the world, just formal randomness.
People think of randomness as unintended interference, but many times it is an invisible force interference.
【Laws of Nature】
For example, the common gravity interferes with people's actions, but ignores because of habits, needless to say locks, can only say a little back.
If you want to change the situation with the lock card, there is a method that I think works well, which allows you to draw different cards from you, but not necessarily what you want, you can try it. For example, if you are free of charge every day, suddenly three or seven days or eleven days (prime number) is not online, after a month you can observe that the low-security card has changed.
Because of your vacancy, someone else has taken your place.
So the two of you draw cards in order to exchange, he began to draw the cards you often draw, you began to draw the cards that others often draw, I don't know if you can understand, if you understand, you can send a text, the whole people benefit.
Approximate meaning:
Each player draws cards on a certain draw sequence, and since you keep the draw time constant, your draw sequence is relatively stable.
And you suddenly leave the sequence, and someone draws a card on your sequence, and it replaces your position, and you take the place of someone else.
The days he mentioned changing his luck must be prime numbers.
Prime numbers: Cannot be divisible by other numbers except themselves and 1, such as numbers such as 3, 7, 5, and 11.
Prime numbers are a kind of mathematical conceptual metaphysics.
He reminded this, the flower mat is remembered one thing, their own card drawing often because of forgetting to lead to less smoking, forgot to draw at night to the next morning, the sequence of flower seat card draw is chaotic, perhaps often draw different cards, there are factors in this regard.
Perhaps this approach is also helpful for changing the sequence.
Two: 5 times the probability can not equalize the probability
This student who has studied probability theory prompted Hua Xi, "What you said is also flawed, 5 times can not stabilize the probability, can only cover about 95%"
[Some players think the probability is like this]
10% probability = I will definitely draw 10 times.
1% probability = I draw 100 times and must win.
A dice has 100 faces, I throw dice 100 times, and it does not reach an average distribution, then I throw 100 times 2 times, reaching 200 times must be evenly distributed!
Many people think that when there is no even distribution, someone must be doing ghosts!
Suddenly, I understood why many people like to buy lottery tickets, thinking that if they insisted on buying, they would definitely win the lottery.
【Reality of Probability】
10% probability, even if you draw 9 times, when you draw for the tenth time is still 10% probability, the first 9 times do not draw will not make your tenth draw probability increase.
Even if you draw 100 times, the probability of each time is still 10%.
It's just that the more you smoke, the more you smoke, the more you smoke,
Probabilities tend to flatten out, close to theoretical probabilities.
To smooth out probabilities, you need a huge amount of experimentation.
Huge amounts, remember to be huge amounts.
Hanagi herself made an experiment with dice,
The dice had 6 numbers, and the flower mat was shaken 90 times, which was 15 times that of 6, and the result did not change the probability of each number appearing to 1/6.
You can do this experiment yourself.
The last of the mobile phone emoticons is the rock scissors cloth and dice, interested can record it yourself.
Hua Xi checked again on the Internet, how many times does it take for the sieve 6 numbers to flatten the probability.
"The results found that a person did an experiment and rolled 40,000 dice, of which 10,000 were 1."
Assuming that the game company uses true randomness, I am afraid that some players will not be able to draw a card in their lifetime, which is obviously not conducive to the development of the game, so how does the game company ensure the player experience?
Hua Xi went to the Internet to check the information, and found a data on a programmer's forum.
【The beginning of this article】
The ordinary probability model is the most commonly used model, but in the process of game operation, it is indeed found that many small white players cannot understand it correctly - they think that the setting of 10% winning rate is equivalent to winning 10 times and will definitely win once, which is obviously wrong.
If the figure is compressed, you can copy the above words to search the original text on the Internet.
Interested players can search for the original text to learn, the flower mat will not be forwarded, too many words.
Rough meaning:
When you can't draw a card all the time, you'll gradually increase your probability and let you draw certain cards.
30 times the bottom is this mode, 5.6% probability theoretically about 18 times you can draw a card, but there are also people who are unlucky enough not to draw 30 times, then there will be a guarantee.
However, the game has set 30 guarantees, some players feel that it is very reasonable, and some players do not appreciate it.
Draw double yolk eggs and triple yolk eggs:
Player: I am the European Emperor, are you convinced?
At 30 bottom guarantees:
Player: MMP, again, the bottom, the garbage game against me!
Is the flower mat summed up correctly?
Whether the core card has a bottom guarantee mechanism is not clear, but it is said that the 2W RMB when wei Yan is drawn is basically one, and this estimate is the bottom guarantee, because the probability is low and has not been drawn, and finally a guarantee has been given.
"It is also possible that the probability is floating, a card has not been drawn, the probability will continue to increase, and now many games also have this mechanism"
【Small card pack has 10 cards】
Do you think the probability of both a core card and a regular card is 10%?
"Suddenly thought of building weapons and searching, some players search for 3-5 martial generals in a season, Zhuge Liang, Zhang Fei, Gan Ning are full of red, and some players have not been looking for good martial artists"