The secret of the card "Explosion".
1
Ultraman card that "hollows out" elementary school students' wallets
2 million yuan, what can you buy?
For the vast majority of people, this should not be a small amount. I calculated that according to the current price, 2 million yuan, you can buy 4 houses, 5,000 bicycles, and 1 million lollipops in a fourth-tier town.
But it's hard to imagine that this money can't do one thing – "collect Ultraman cards"!
This happened in August 2022, in a card game flagship store in Chaoyang District, Beijing, Fan, who was called "Card King" by customers in the store, told the media -
"Since my son 'entered the pit' Ultraman Card, I have successively spent nearly 2 million yuan to draw cards, but I haven't collected them yet. ”
To explain, in the card circle, the total cost of about 10,000 yuan is the general enthusiast, more than 100,000 yuan is regarded as an expert, when the total cost of millions of yuan, in the circle is called the "card king".
After this report came out, many people were surprised: the small Ultraman card is so expensive?
If you haven't learned about cards, you probably don't know that this is already the social "top stream" of contemporary primary school students.
When you go to any elementary school, as long as you take out a stack of Ultraman cards and successfully match the "change card" code, you can quickly integrate into their circle.
Cards are fun, but they're expensive. Moreover, children's "krypton gold" is often paid by parents.
For example, in Changsha, an 8-year-old boy used his mother's Alipay to buy an Ultraman card for 3,800. When my mother checked the account, she found that there were only more than 1,000 yuan left in Alipay. Afterwards, she asked the child to return the card, but the store refused.
A 10-year-old boy in Henan spent 9,800 yuan to buy an Ultraman card in 10 days. This was originally prepared by parents for the elderly for the New Year, and before that, the boy was very frugal, "before he spent more than 100 yuan a year on New Year's money."
In Wuhan, a couple of parents took their children to the police station to report that their son had been robbed of more than 1,000 yuan. Later, according to the police investigation, it turned out that the little boy stole his mother's 1,200 yuan in order to buy Ultraman rare cards. The child was afraid of being scolded and lied about being robbed.
In order to prevent children from "spending money indiscriminately", parents and schools are also racking their brains. For example, at the end of 2020, at a foreign Chinese primary school in Ningbo, Zhejiang, students often "traded" Ultraman cards in the toilet. The school warned many times, but it was repeatedly banned.
What is the magic of this little card?
2
Behind the "Pinjin Cave".
The answer to this question has to be found in the cards themselves.
Based on my observations, combined with the investigation and analysis of some experts and the media, I have summarized several reasons why Ultraman cards are "addicted" to the majority of elementary school students.
First, classic IP + social attributes.
As a classic IP for decades, Ultraman has a strong recognition and affection among teenagers. What's more, cards can not only be collected, but also used to play games, becoming a social magic weapon for elementary school students.
In the eyes of most adults, it's just a poker-sized card, with an image of Ultraman or a monster on the front and the corresponding attack value, defense value, special move, card serial number, level, etc., and a detailed description of the character on the back.
But for the majority of elementary school students, this is the key to open the door of friendship, the code to the mysterious world.
Cards like these can be easily purchased at street shops around the school. A whole box of 36 packs of cards is opened and sold, and each small pack can open 8 cards, and the lowest price is only 1 yuan.
The social circle of primary school students is relatively single and dense, and once a certain toy or game becomes popular, it will be infinitely magnified. Because of this, Ultraman cards have gradually become the social hard currency of teenagers, and even become the capital to show off. A mother reported on the Internet that her child was too addicted to Ultraman cards, and she tore up all those cards in front of her child in a fit of anger. As a result, the child broke out on the spot and knocked over all the furniture in the house.
Second, the transaction attributes.
Ultraman cards are not only playable, but also have a secondary market. Stationery stores and kiosks around the school, online QQ groups, and Xianyu all have Ultraman card trading markets.
It is said that the highest transaction record for Ultraman cards is a Jinsha version of Ultraman Ultraman 9.5 points guaranteed rating card, with a transaction amount of up to 158,000 yuan.
▲ source network
Coupled with the deliberate hype of some scalpers, the secondary market for Ultraman cards was once very hot.
Third, the hierarchical system + "blind box" gameplay.
The author understands that Ultraman cards have more than 20 levels, ranging from R and SR to XR and SP. The higher the level, the higher the rarity, the less likely it is to be opened. In order to collect cards as soon as possible, many child players can only fall into the cycle of "buying cards-opening cards-buying cards again".
In a report by China News Weekly, some parents bluntly said: "R card, SR card, SSR card, finally bought it all, and there are flash cards, transparent cards, the most tricky is the puzzle card, a puzzle 9 pieces, always not together, this set is complete, there is the next set." ”
For children, whoever has a card with a higher rarity index is cooler and more popular. In this way, out of the psychology of comparison, they will buy more expensive card packs, because "the more expensive the card pack, the higher the chance of rare cards appearing in them, and sometimes they can make money." ”
There is also a set of "addictive" mechanisms behind this. According to the analysis of Caitong Securities, because the card packs purchased by players will randomly match cards of different rarities, this randomness similar to "opening blind boxes" stimulates players' desire to buy.
It is important to know that as early as June 2023, the "Guidelines for the Code of Conduct for Blind Box Operations (Trial)" issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation clearly stipulates that blind box operators are not allowed to sell blind box goods to minors under the age of 8.
Because of this, Ultraman cards are also controversial.
3
Profiteering and questioning
Behind the popularity of Ultraman cards, there is a big market.
According to the data, the market size of China's trading card industry has increased from 700 million yuan in 2017 to 12.2 billion yuan in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 78.4%. According to forecasts, the total merchandise transaction volume of this track will reach 31 billion yuan in 2027 - this is one of the fastest-growing areas of China's pan-entertainment toy industry.
Among them, there is one company that is very eye-catching - card games. A few months ago, Card Game Co., Ltd. submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, officially launching an IPO attack.
According to the prospectus, in 2021, 2022 and the first nine months of 2023, the revenue of card games will be 2.298 billion yuan, 4.131 billion yuan, and 1.952 billion yuan respectively, and the adjusted net profit will reach 795 million yuan, 1.620 billion yuan, and 578 million yuan respectively.
The annual revenue is more than 4 billion yuan! From this prospectus, people realize that a small, cheap card can be so profitable.
The core product of card games is trading cards. According to the prospectus, from 2021 to 2022 and in the first nine months of 2023, the revenue contributed by trading cards will be 2.170 billion yuan, 3.930 billion yuan and 1.675 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 94.4%, 95.1% and 85.8% of the total revenue in the current period.
Some media have made a calculation: According to the official website of the Ministry of Education, there will be 107 million primary school students in the country in 2022, and the prospectus of the card game shows that the sales volume of its trading cards in 2022 will be 2.087 billion boxes, with an average of nearly 20 boxes of cards per primary school student.
The revenue is quite large, but the cost of card games is not high. According to the prospectus, the largest expenses are material costs and royalties, which account for about 20% and 6% of total revenue, respectively. After calculation, the gross profit margin of its trading cards is 59.5%, 69.9%, and 71.2% respectively, increasing year by year.
For card games, the flip side of the powerful ability to "absorb gold" is the increasing frequency of questioning.
In August 2022, People's Daily Online commented: It's time to take care of the out-of-control Ultramanka.
After that, CCTV also released a comment: It's time to manage the "Ultraman Card" of the "routine" child!
More skepticism comes from users and parents. On the Black Cat complaint platform, there are as many as 39,091 complaints related to "card games", and the complaints focus on non-delivery for a long time, refusal of minor refunds, inducement of minors to consume, overlord clauses, etc.
In the eyes of many parents, these cards can be bought at random around the school, and children can easily indulge in them. Some people even bluntly said that "these cards are the sickles that harvest the wallets of minors, and what they earn is black money."
Behind these doubts, in the opinion of industry insiders, "cards are essentially blind boxes, even if the current specifications of blind boxes are not enough to cover cards, but the addiction and gambling psychology brought by cards are indeed breeding deformed consumption." ”
Kayou itself also mentioned in the prospectus that the regulator's scrutiny of blind box business activities has been strengthened, and changes in the regulatory regime may have a material adverse impact on its business.
On the one hand, there are huge profits, and on the other hand, there is responsibility, how to choose a card game that is ready to be listed?
We'll see.