At 9:59 p.m., only 1 minute left before the pre-sale at 10:00 hour, the excited heart, the trembling hands, and the e-sports mouse in the hand all looked a little slippery. When I was 20 seconds away from 10:00, I saw a WeChat message that said"Don't buy, 618 diving is it not fragrant?"
After reading it, the momentum of the first launch instantly dissipated, and with the 10:00 hour ringing, everything was already doomed, and I sat and watched the pre-sale button change from red to gray... I have to say that it is much easier to give up the starting lineup now than before. In previous years, it was worth bragging about being able to grab the first launch of a certain mobile phone in social groups and circles of friends.
However, from 2021 onwards, grabbing the first launch seems to have become synonymous with "unjust head", and consumers have become more and more calm about the so-called first launch, which is particularly evident in the mobile phone market. In the past two years, the "waiting party" that has been waiting for the price reduction of products is really Qin Shi Huang eating peppercorns - winning hemp.
So how did a good mobile phone debut become like this? There are many reasons for this problem, the first of which is that consumers can perceive the most, and at the same time, the most perceptive point - money.
Not enough drum wallet, sooner or later diving price
The fundamental reason why consumers are more calm about the first launch is money, although there is more money in their pockets now, but due to the impact of the epidemic on the economy in the past two years, consumers are more inclined to save money to enhance their ability to resist risks, which is pragmatic and necessary.
This directly determines that the consumer's attitude towards the first product launch must be sober. In addition, the overall higher price of the current smart phone is also an important reason for consumers to calm down.
Taking 5,000 yuan as an example, this price is the real high-end machine price, so what high-end mobile phones can be bought at this price now? There are mainly iQOO 9 Pro 12GB +256GB, Xiaomi 12 Pro 8GB+256GB, Honor Magic4 12GB+256GB, True Me GT2 Pro 12GB+512GB, if the time stuck on this year's released mobile phone, there is really not much choice.
From the perspective of real consumers, most of the flagships released in these 4 months always give people a feeling of "having reservations", the price has gone up on the surface, and the actual configuration and experience have not reached the corresponding price. Xiaomi Mi 11 Pro, compared with the previous generation cut the periscope lens, high brightness hardware DC dimming, four-curved screen, in exchange for a more conventional product appearance and use of the feeling, from the ideal surprise into a "Oh" in reality is so fast.
Perhaps a more conventional look and experience is more acceptable, but a product sold to the average consumer does not mean that the product becomes ordinary. This is also why last year's flagship still sold well this year.
Xiaomi Mi 11 Ultra
Of course, the high price is not wrong, this is the inevitable result of the impact on the high-end market, but compared to the high price, the real fear is the price after the conference plunged sharply. Affected by market supply and demand, it is normal for product prices to fluctuate, but it has become somewhat "abnormal" since 618 in 2021.
During the 618 period last year, the flagship mobile phones experienced direct or indirect price reductions. At that time, the one plus 9 series was released less than 3 months ago, and the official announcement was that the highest direct drop of 500 yuan in the whole series, the price of the one plus 9 Pro was reduced to 4799 yuan, and the top match became 5499 yuan. Time to June, the price was further reduced, the machine became 4399 yuan on the e-commerce platform, and the top configuration of 12GB + 256GB dropped to 4999 yuan.
From the perspective of the market, these are very normal price adjustment behaviors, but for consumers who have bought the first launch, they can't say that they are unhappy, and they are eager to refund the money immediately. Five months later, something similar happened again during The Double 11, so much so that the official gave headphones to the earlier buyers as a sign of comfort. In contrast, the iPhone 12 series and iPhone 13 series are highly priced, but the relatively stable price makes consumers feel at ease.
I hope that the electronic products I buy, especially the flagship products, can be used to make them sell at a relatively high price, and the return can meet their psychological needs. As an ordinary person, this is what I thought when I bought my phone. Since you will dive sooner or later, why not wait until 618 or double 11 to buy it, but to grab the starter?
This intertwining of facts, emotions and wallets has made a considerable number of consumers extra cautious when buying new machines. Reflected in the market, the overall sales of China's smartphone market in February fell by more than 20% year-on-year, down 24% month-on-month, the sales side of the cold, even Apple may face similar problems, analyst Guo Mingxi for the newly released iPhone SE third-generation shipments forecast from 25-30 million units to 15-20 million units, the forecast decline of up to about 40%.
If you want to buy a new machine, in the Android camp, consumers will be more inclined to a thousand yuan machine and a mid-range machine with a higher cost performance; in the flagship machine type, consumers will choose an iPhone with relative value preservation and stronger product strength.
This consumption choice has created a very interesting scene, such as last year's Jingdong double 11 smart phone sales list, on the one hand, the domestic mid-range mobile phone still has a strong competitiveness, but on the other hand, there is a huge price gap, the domestic camp is basically based on the entry machine and the mid-range machine, Apple has iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Pro Max such flagship platform, the first place Redmi K40 official price of 1999 yuan, iPhone 13 from 5999 yuan, Market profits basically flow to Apple. Something similar is still happening today, and although the domestic mid-range has guarded the door, it can't hold the ceiling leaking.
Although it has been two months since its release, last November was still the first sales period of the iPhone 13 series, why is it sometimes difficult for the domestic flagship of the same year to reach the same height during the launch period? This has something to do with some of the vendor's own operations.
Are you buying a "semi-finished product"?
One of the most heard complaints when buying a mobile phone this year is "Am I buying a semi-finished product?" "Why do you have to wait for the OTA update after the good features?" The reason for this situation is related to the tense market rhythm in the past two years.
Last year, the domestic impact on the high-end effect is not ideal, the high-end market is still taken away by Apple, but for domestic manufacturers, it is necessary to insist on impacting the high-end, otherwise it can only be difficult to extricate itself in the endless inner volume of the low-end market.
What if the front is just right? Just avoid it.
In addition to the previous Huawei such a more iron player, most of the current domestic manufacturers will choose to avoid Apple's strong period to release their own main flagship, manufacturers need to release the new flagship before September, or December. In addition to avoiding Apple, it is best to avoid peers and minimize the impact on their own products, which is also a microcosm of the fierce market competition.
In order to grab the time difference, manufacturers need to launch new products as quickly as possible, which creates a very embarrassing problem - optimization can not keep up, resulting in the first purchase of mobile phones, the level can have a complete 7 to 8 points of power is already quite good. For consumers, it may be equivalent to buying a "semi-finished product" at a 100% price.
Honor Magic3 Series
In August last year, Honor released the Magic3 series, which takes the multi-main camera route in the image, and the idea is correct, but given that each lens parameter is not bad, especially the 64-megapixel outsole periscope telephoto and the best version of the oversized bottom main camera, it takes considerable time and effort to optimize.
This led to the series of mobile phones at the beginning of the listing, the imaging capabilities did not fully meet consumer expectations, and then Glory began to push fusion photography technology to the users of the Magic3 series in September, from this time on, the imaging capabilities of the series of mobile phones can be regarded as gradually on the right track.
The glory magic4 released in February this year also has similar problems, from the feedback of the e-commerce platform, Tieba and other communities, consumers' dissatisfaction with this phone is mainly in the photo, such as the optimization of the periscope lens is not enough, but also its screen, appearance and other aspects of appreciation, which is somewhat unimaginable 2 years ago.
At present, Honor is already pushing updates to the Magic4 to enhance the image performance, and it will be seen whether the Honor Magic4 Pro and the Ultimate Edition, which are listed at the end of this month, will also be seen.
OPPO Find X5 Pro
The same problem is the Find X5 Pro, which uses THE OPPO self-developed NPU chip Mariana MariSilicon X, which is a happy thing, OPPO can make an NPU chip in two years is already quite good. But Li Jie, president of Find product line, said in an interview that at present, the door has just been touched, and the chip is currently only 30% effective, and it takes time to continue to polish and play better.
This means that the Find X5 Pro wants to really play the performance of Mariana MariSilicon X, and users need to wait for multiple OTA updates to enjoy it, which is a "girlfriend".
It is worth noting that there are many mobile phone models of domestic manufacturers, if each mobile phone must ensure the corresponding update rhythm, then this is a very heavy workload, may wait until the end of the mobile phone life cycle, it may reach a complete state. This is also why many of last year's mobile phones have an upward trend in word of mouth this year, coupled with their own price advantages, they are still chosen by many consumers.
"Everything can OTA" was originally a positive word, in order to correct the BUG, increase the new features that were not available before, let consumers sigh at the manufacturer's ability to live, and now put the good function in the subsequent update, from the manufacturer's point of view, this is a very realistic approach, after all, the construction period is tight, but also to extend the product life cycle.
But for the first batch of consumers who bought at the original price, it is a rather grinding process, and it is necessary to endure the experience of using it that is not good in the early stage. Look at the semi-finished products in your hand, and then look at the starting price, it is inevitable that you will be unhappy in your heart, and in the end, you will consume the patience of consumers.
Bright rises and dark falls, self-abolishing martial arts
"Bright rise and dark drop" is a word that online consumers use the most in mobile phones this year, and this kind of "self-deprecating martial arts" approach is not entirely the subjective requirement of manufacturers, but more of a compromise with reality.
For example, the three elements of high-end mobile phones, namely system, chip, and image, the first two domestic manufacturers in addition to Huawei, which is forced to press the pause button, the competitiveness of other manufacturers is not high, relying on Android and upstream suppliers, but the image is not the same. Has been one of the important areas of domestic manufacturers' inner volume, from the beginning than who is clearer, the night scene is brighter, to now than whose algorithm is better, the photo is the most flavorful...
Today's domestic flagship mobile phones have surpassed the iPhone in terms of taking pictures and related configurations, but this year, in addition to a few mobile phones such as the Honor Magic4 series, Nubia Z40 Pro, Samsung Galaxy S22 Ultra, most manufacturers in the lens configuration, especially the telephoto part, did not show radicalism in the previous two years, optical zoom from the previous 5 times to 2 times or 3 times, pulling their telephoto ability back to a level with the iPhone, Obviously, this is one of the imaging advantages of the original domestic flagship.
Although the manufacturer explained that this is the result of user research, for the consumer, he may not know that he has lost the telephoto. Because a considerable number of consumers will not zoom according to the manufacturer's preset focus multiples, but through two fingers to stretch the frame, the picture is enlarged to their favorite angle and then shot, which gives consumers a very embarrassing impression, "why the shooting is not clear."
This is the inevitable result of the lack of ability to educate users, and the current rhythm is that users do not use telephoto - market research found that telephoto usage is low - manufacturers think that users do not like telephoto - and eventually cut it, becoming a vicious circle. However, the main reason is probably to reduce costs.
It is worth noting that user education is a neutral word, not referring to the manufacturer's father-in-law to teach users how to use mobile phones, but to know how to use a certain function of the mobile phone through various ways and what value. One of the most typical cases is the 2019 Huawei P30 Pro shooting the moon, which very intuitively demonstrates the value of telephoto + computational photography. Although many online users did not understand it at the time, it now seems to be very forward-looking.
In fact, Apple is also doing similar things, such as how Apple uses technology to help people with disabilities, how to commit to environmental protection and carbon reduction, and more recently, there are micro photo contests, which are showing the functional advantages of iPhones or other Apple products, not to mention that Apple also has a lot of its own brand and technical advantages, which is one of the reasons why consumers can maintain a fairly high acceptance of Apple.
In addition, the restrictions of the upstream supply chain are also one of the reasons why manufacturers "self-destruct martial arts". This is especially evident on the sensor, screen, and lens sensor.
On the chip, the flagship mobile phone that has been released so far basically uses Snapdragon 8, due to the over-enthusiasm of this chip, leading manufacturers to limit their performance with methods such as frequency reduction and frame locking, the advantage is that the temperature and power consumption have declined, and the disadvantage is that the performance of this chip in games and daily use is not much better than last year. But this makes the A15 bionic chip of the iPhone 13 series more powerful and has a greater advantage.
This kind of upstream supplier problem, domestic manufacturers in addition to heap optimization, heap heat dissipation and other peripheral configuration, basically no better solution.
The screen is an important spare part on the flagship mobile phone, and the current domestic flagship screen is still dominated by Samsung. The original domestic flagship use of Samsung screen compared to Apple is a relative advantage, in addition to first-class color gamut, color accuracy, brightness, high resolution, high refresh rate, but also support DC dimming, compared to the strobe serious low-frequency PWM dimming is much smarter. But from 2021 to today, upstream screen vendors have limited screen drivers and related hardware and software technologies, and screens that support LTPO technology can only achieve low-frequency PWM dimming.
Left: High Frequency PWM Dimming Right: Low Frequency PWM Dimming
Of course, fortunately, strobe sensitive users are not without choice, last year's Xiaomi 11 series, P50 series, Magic3 series, this year's Redmi K50 e-sports edition, iQOO 9, iQOO Neo6, Magic4 series, etc. have a quite eye-friendly dimming method, especially the Magic4 series, to achieve high-frequency PWM, high brightness DC dimming and LTPO coexistence, domestic screen progress is great, in addition to Redmi K50 and K50 Pro will push an update after that, so that 2K+120Hz and DC dimming are on the same page.
On the lens sensor, every time a new machine is released, there are always consumers who will ask: "Why not use so-and-so sensor, isn't the quality better?" "If you compare carefully, you will find that IMX766 has become the mainstream choice this year, in addition to the strong plasticity of the sensor itself, there are manufacturers who really have no choice."
Manufacturers choose which lens sensor, not what I want to use, but what the supply chain can use, many times there is no choice space. In the past, Huawei's P40 series and Mate40 series were all luxurious practices of the main camera of the ultra-large bottom sensor, and it would be difficult to see in the future, and at most it would only appear on the Pro or oversized cup models.
This year's domestic flagship mobile phone is not only the image hardware, but also the algorithm, which is also one of the core technologies that can open the gap with competitors, but it is still that problem, and consumers are likely to use a "semi-finished" firmware, and may not be able to feel the value of the algorithm.
In the upcoming first quarter is not Apple's strong period, due to chips, supply chain, cost and other issues caused by this year's domestic camp flagship is not strong enough, and even the phenomenon of regression, the attractiveness to consumers declined, but objectively set off the strength of the iPhone 13 series and the high cost performance of the previous generation of flagships. It depends on whether the domestic camp can come up with more competitive flagship products in the second half of the year.
Write at the end:
Wallets that are not drummed enough, the price of diving sooner or later, experiences comparable to semi-finished products, products that are not eye-catching enough... It is enough to let consumers who are willing to buy a machine stay calm in front of the first launch, not to be "wronged", but to join the "wait party", and wait until the mobile phone drops to a suitable price and optimizes it in place before selling.
If nothing else, this year's 618 is probably still this rhythm. For consumers, this is a cost-effective buying strategy, if you have recently planned to buy a machine, it is not impossible to wait until the last day to buy.
But for manufacturers may not be a long-term solution, their new high-end flagships are so crushed by the 618 low price, one after another, can only say that in the benchmarking iPhone, each family still has a lot of things to do, not just do a good job.