22/04/13
Lead
The epidemic has swept in, and the strong black cloud has pressed the city, making the power battery industry, which has just breathed a sigh of relief, once again worry about it.
Author 丨 Zhang Zhidong
Responsible editor 丨 Du Yuxin
Edit 丨 Chic
Ningde, there is an epidemic.
When the news of Ningde's upgrading of epidemic control came, the Ningde era, which occupied half of the domestic market share, touched the heart of the entire new energy automobile industry.
Another thing that contributed to the situation was a screenshot with the words "Emergency Notice of the Ningde Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology" circulating on the Internet. The "urgency" between the readings of its sentences is almost directly stated that "Ningde in front of it is forbidden to enter and exit".
Although the authenticity of the rumor is difficult to verify, if the rumor is true, can the Ningde era, which restricts the supply of raw materials, still work normally?
Therefore, on the impact of the epidemic in Ningde, the Automobile Commune inquired to the Ningde times, and its official personnel said: Recently, there have been individual epidemics in Ningde, and the government has temporarily upgraded the epidemic prevention and control measures. The company attaches great importance to it and strengthens communication with relevant government departments and coordinates epidemic prevention for the first time. At present, in order to maximize the protection of market supply, the company strictly adopts grid management measures to ensure that the Ningde base carries out production in an orderly manner.
The good news is that the Ningde base in the Ningde era has not stopped production, and it has been prepared to maximize the supply of the market. However, the roof leak coincided with continuous rain, accompanied by a new round of epidemic surge, the problem of the demand side of the power battery was exposed again.
On April 9, NIO said on its official app that since March, due to the epidemic, the company's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production one after another and have not yet recovered. Affected by this, WEILAI's vehicle production has been suspended.
Yes, the head of the new force of Weilai has stopped production, and Li Bin has said bluntly: a car without a part can not be produced!
The backyard was on fire, full of helplessness. Battery manufacturers who have just experienced the "demon nickel" incident have not had time to breathe a sigh of relief, and the export of the industrial chain is facing the risk of being shut down.
In other words, under the epidemic, how can Weilai be just a case, when car companies no longer ask for orders from battery manufacturers, or car companies themselves are stopping production, Q2 quarter extra battery costs, who will digest it?
1
Looking at corporate affairs, Rip "changed its name" to plan an IPO
As far as the current market situation is concerned, it is difficult not to generate some pessimism. But if you look at the installed capacity of power batteries in March, it is actually much better than the data in February.
According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in March 2022, the domestic power battery installed vehicle volume was 21.4GWh, up 138.0% year-on-year and 56.6% month-on-month, showing the vigorous development of the domestic power battery market.
According to the technical route, the ternary battery in March was loaded with a total of 8.2GWh, accounting for 38.3% of the total installed vehicles, up 61.2% year-on-year and 40.5% month-on-month; lithium iron phosphate batteries were loaded in a total of 13.2GWh, accounting for 61.6% of the total installed vehicles, up 238.8% year-on-year, and up 69.4% month-on-month.
The data will not lie, and the situation of six or four points has made lithium iron phosphate out of the limelight. And behind this, it can also be seen as the result of the technical route game between power battery companies.
The two technical routes of the Ningde era are all-inclusive, firmly occupying half of the domestic market; BYD, with its blade battery, has played a par with the Ningde era in the track of lithium iron phosphate batteries, ranking second.
Battery manufacturers such as Zhongxin Aviation, LG New Energy, and Hive Energy have advantages in ternary batteries; power battery companies such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Yiwei Lithium Energy occupy a lot of shares in the track of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
However, in addition to the first few familiar "shoulder handles", what I want to highlight here is Rip Energy, which is ranked tenth, has just completed the share reform and changed its name.
Founded in 2017, Rip Energy is a relatively "young" supplier of power batteries. Its main products include VDA and MEB standard size square aluminum shell ternary lithium, lithium iron phosphate batteries. And it is worth mentioning that the background strength of Rip Energy is very strong.
The investigation shows that Qingshan Holdings, the protagonist of the "demon nickel" incident, is holding nearly 90% of the shares of Rip Energy through direct and indirect means. As the helmsman of Tsingshan Holdings, "Nickel King" Xiang Guangda holds a 53% stake in Rip Energy.
On April 7, Ruipu Energy underwent industrial and commercial changes, and the company was renamed Ruipu Lanjun Energy Co., Ltd. Interestingly, Ruipu Energy and Lanjun New Energy are subsidiaries of Qingshan, and Lanjun New Energy's battery products are mainly focused on the direction of ternary high nickel and cobalt-free, which can form a good complementary utility with Ruipu Energy.
After the completion of the share reform and the renaming of Ripland Jun, its strength is undoubtedly enhanced. And just last week, Rip Energy also reported that it was listed in Hong Kong as early as this year, and is considering pre-listing funds.
According to people familiar with the matter, Ruipu Energy is raising about 3 billion yuan from new and existing investors to seek a valuation of 30 billion yuan ($4.7 billion). After the completion of this fundraising, Ruipu Energy may go to Hong Kong for an initial public offering (IPO).
2
Looking at the industrial chain, the downstream crisis has suddenly emerged
On the one hand, the influx of capital has provided a guarantee for the technological innovation and capacity expansion of power battery companies. But on the other hand, how can the healthy operation of the entire industrial chain be achieved by relying only on capital.
Under the background of the epidemic blossoming everywhere at this time, the power battery industry chain has ushered in a difficult "big test".
First and foremost is the problem of "overcapacity".
At the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said: In 2025, China's power battery production capacity will reach 3000GWh, and battery shipments are expected to be around 1200GWh in 2025, and there will be a large overcapacity.
Focusing on the present, in the past March, the output of domestic power batteries totaled 39.2GWh, an increase of 247.3% year-on-year and 23.3% month-on-month. And whether it is a weak ternary battery or a lithium iron phosphate battery that is widely sought after by car companies, it has achieved a substantial increase in production.
In this case, power battery companies still have to "cry": affected by the rise in raw materials, the price of batteries will increase. Despite this, the question now is, when power batteries are oversupplied, how can prices still rise?
Reasonable, the most basic relationship of the market is the relationship between supply and demand, when the supply exceeds demand, the price of power batteries will be regulated by the market. And the second problem, said to be the crisis in the downstream of the industrial chain, can actually be regarded as a power battery demand side of the problem exposed.
As far as the current situation is concerned, the trend of overcapacity is gradually emerging, although the cost of power batteries has also risen due to the rise in raw material prices. But on the other hand, the demand of car companies may also become weaker due to the epidemic.
Taking Weilai as an example, affected by the epidemic, its parts are difficult to get together, and it has no choice but to stop the production of the whole vehicle, and the whole vehicle is difficult to deliver, will the orders of battery manufacturers be more?
For car companies, the uncertainty of vehicle production in the Q2 quarter has increased sharply due to the epidemic. And it needs to be clear that affected by the "demon nickel" event, the prices of various upstream raw materials have increased significantly, and the cost of this batch of batteries in the Q2 quarter is much higher.
For consumers, the purchase of a car this quarter is not only to accept the "official price increase", but also to deal with the uncertainty caused by the epidemic at any time, such as long-term difficulty in delivery.
Under such logical deduction, if the consumers' desire to buy a car is not very strong, the corresponding emotions are fed back to the industrial chain of car companies and power batteries, will there be more battery orders and car loading?
It is not difficult to find that the power battery companies at this time seem to be in a weak state - they need to be obedient to the wishes of upstream raw material suppliers, and they must also take care of the emotions of major car companies.
However, they were angry at both ends, but they did not dare to relax in the slightest, lest they be robbed of this hard-won market share by other friends.
But from another point of view, who will miss the time when the power battery "kidnapped" car companies and "kidnapped" the entire industry?
Market laws, car companies, and even upstream raw material suppliers are putting pressure on battery manufacturers. It's just that this kind of intentional and unintentional approach can be exchanged for an unknown situation, or it may give rise to another strong group.
But what is certain is that the crisis encountered by the power battery company will not end so simply; even those long-term backlog of contradictions are about to erupt.