Folding screen competition has ignited a new war, is vivo late?

Image source @ Visual China

Wen | Intelligent Relativity, author | She Kevin

A few days ago, the news that smart phones could not be sold again once again rushed to the top of the topic list, focusing on how young people do not change their mobile phones this year. Time back a few years, the vast majority of young people do not say a year a change, two years to change the mobile phone is also the norm, now their average replacement cycle has exceeded 31 months, the media will call this phenomenon young people's "machine change anxiety".

At the same time, the latest data shows that domestic smartphone shipments are "falling", and all kinds of situations show that the smartphone industry will not be better in 2022.

However, even so, it can not stop the enthusiasm of brands for the release of new machines, huawei, IQOO and other brands have successively burst out new models. But the most noteworthy thing is the high-profile debut of vivo's first folding screen X Fold. Folding screen products have become the "main force" of various brands at this stage, and the "folding screen" track is now the only mainstream player left Apple has not yet left, so can the "folding screen" solve the "replacement anxiety" of young people?

Can the folding screen appease young people's "machine change anxiety"?

Why don't young people change their mobile phones often? Are they nostalgic? Of course not.

Among the various "machine change anxieties", the first problem is "trouble". Address book, photo album, wifi, various accounts, bank card binding, all kinds of NFC settings, after the replacement of the "machine to restart" let them quite a headache.

In fact, it is not without solutions, many cloud storage products can achieve one-click backup of mobile phone content, and then download with one click after changing the machine, and most of the content can be moved. But the monthly cost of 5 yuan is another problem, after all, they are not happy to buy music and video memberships, not to mention that they do not need a cloud backup once a year?

The second is the price. I want to be able to win the flagship version of the smart phone for 4 or 5 thousand yuan that year, and now where it is called the "flagship", it will start at least 6k, coupled with the manufacturer's precision knife method, so that the flagship model is also difficult to escape castration. Today's Android system has greatly evolved, as long as it is used properly, it is no problem to use it for 3 or 4 years, at best, it is to change the battery and fight for two more years. Save money and use "new machines to save face", young people no longer need it.

Finally, there is innovation. This is an old problem, even if there is no machine change anxiety. "Minor changes in function, fine-tuning on appearance", in the year of mobile phone performance, and then out of full price for a "similar" mobile phone, can not help but make young people think about whether it is worth it.

What about the folding screen that is currently being pushed by manufacturers? Can it break the anxiety of young people about changing machines? First from the market point of view, when the entire smart phone environment is frustrated, folding screen products are showing a posture against the market. According to the data, since the second half of last year, the sales of folding screen mobile phones have soared, and the annual shipment volume in 2021 has reached 9 million units, achieving an annual growth rate of 309%.

Of course, compared with the world's 1.35 billion smartphone shipments, folding screen sales accounted for only 0.6%, but this is also the advantage of folding screen, huge room for improvement, so that major brands "flock to it".

However, when the folding screen faces the three problems of "trouble", "price" and "innovation", there is actually no good solution. However, the price of the folding screen has been loosened, the just released vivo X Fold price of 8999, plus the replacement discount can be lower. Earlier OPPO Find N is to press the price to less than 8000, compared with the original Samsung, Huawei folding screen mobile phone often 10,000 several selling prices, the price has dropped a lot, some experts expect that the later with the compression of gross margin, compression cost, coupled with the increase in shipments, will bring about the efficiency of the entire supply chain to improve, the final price of the folding screen There is room for decline.

Therefore, if the folding screen wants to impress young people, the most important thing will be to rely on "innovation". It is undeniable that the folding screen is the biggest highlight of the smart phone product since the full screen, although at the time of birth, to a certain extent, the major mobile phone brands in the field of hardware innovation "can not move", the pursuit of an alternative breakthrough, but now on the one hand, there is Samsung's "words and deeds", reminding all players that the folding screen is in demand, on the other hand, through the vivo X Fold conference can also be seen, the innovation of the folding screen is indeed continuing.

Therefore, even Apple, which is not optimistic about large-screen mobile phones, has to invest in it, which shows that the brand's attitude towards the folding screen is no longer "just playing".

Some people will say that the folding screen is just the "old story" of 4 years ago, and the proportion of running for 4 years is still less than 1%, why can it support the new story? In fact, the competition for folding screens may have just begun.

Competition intensifies, when the folding screen is more than "early adopter"

Why the current brand's attitude towards folding screens is no longer "playing", this can be seen from the update speed of folding screens, starting from royole's first folding screen products in 2018, to the beginning of this year, there have been 18 products on the market, and as many as 7 in 2021 alone. In addition, large-scale innovation has also begun to accelerate the "login" folding screen.

Why there is such an acceleration is inseparable from the current competition in the high-end market. Although no manufacturer has explicitly stated it, it is clear that the folding screen has been regarded by them as one of the paths to break through the high-end market. The reason is that the domestic high-end market has been "bullied" by Apple for a long time after losing Huawei, but it is still difficult to fight with Apple only by relying on "ordinary" models.

Counterpoint report shows that in the high-end market of Chinese mobile phones in 2021, Apple's market share rose by 8.1% year-on-year to 63.5%, while the Android camp accounted for only 36.5%.

From the just-concluded vivo conference, it can also be felt that one second is still trying to "rob" Apple users through WeChat double opening, and the next second it is promoting that the big screen has more advantages in driving the stock investment scene to target the customer group to financial players, and these users are representatives of high-end purchasing power.

However, at present, if you want to rely on the folding screen to dominate the high-end market, there are still two major native problems, namely "crease and experience". There is no need to say much about creases. The expensive cost of changing the screen also makes users call "can't afford to fix it".

As for the experience, in essence, the folding screen is also a mobile phone that can realize screen folding, which can refer to the requirements of other smart phones, no more than weight, screen size, function, application and so on. Before the folding screen was regarded as a "chicken rib", in addition to those common hardware problems, the key is the lack of content, fortunately, at this stage of the "crease and experience" of the ills are being gradually solved.

I have to say that this is a positive role played under the "industry volume", such as vivo, which has just released the first folding screen, as the last mainstream player to release folding screen products in China, it must have "bright spot" support. Vivo has also shown sincerity to a certain extent, whether it is the use of aerospace-grade floating wing hinges, or UTG super tough glass, or the addition of "zirconium alloy" liquid metal, are solving the crease problem, according to the data released by vivo, its first folding screen X Fold is the world's first product through Rheinland 300,000 times worry-free folding, with 80 times a day folding times, product life can reach 10 years.

In solving the experience problem, folding screen players also show a trend of "going forward and following", such as OPPO Find N specially created a "folding screen exclusive customization" area, for "one key multiple search", "hover mode", "driving mode" adapted to many customized applications for download. Vivo is also a hard work, from the conference point of view in terms of application adaptation, deep into the financial, social, game, video and other industries, and related companies have begun to customize cooperation; in the stand-alone experience, the screen fingerprint technology for the first time moved to the folding machine, becoming the world's first dual-screen fingerprint unlock folding screen mobile phone; in the charging link, it is also equipped with the world's first 50W folding screen wireless flash charge.

However, for the folding screen products can not ignore the two dimensions of "thickness and weight", even the latest release of vivo does not have any mention, it can be seen that the breakthrough in this piece is still a long way to go.

Oppo put forward the slogan of "from early adopter to common use" when launching Find N, while vivo regarded the birth of X Fold as the beginning of the folding screen 2.0 era. No matter how to express, if you want to make folding screen products really popular, it is obvious that there is still a long way to go. Before that, with the gradual decline of players, what changes will occur in the industry competition?

"Last-come first"? Will the folding screen follow this "unspoken rule"?

In the smart phone track, there has always been an "unspoken rule", that is, "latecomer first served", especially in the large cycle of product upgrading, especially in the large cycle of product upgrading, such as Apple seized the outlet of the smart phone, overthrowing the unparalleled Nokia; Huami OV conforms to the wave of the Internet, replacing the domestic "China Cool Union" leading, these are considered to be "last-come, first-served" examples, and now the biggest change in the smartphone market is the "folding screen", will this history repeat itself?

For folding screen mobile phones, the most active player is Samsung, starting from the Galaxy Fold basically maintain a year-on-year frequency, the latest Galaxy Z Fold 4 has also been revealed to be launched in the second half of this year. In contrast, in addition to Apple, which has not yet released a folding screen, the latest is the vivo X Fold, which has been developed for 4 years.

Does the folding screen need to be iterated as fast as Samsung? Or does it need to be crafted like vivo?

From the perspective of market share, the first to run Samsung is undoubtedly dominant, in the third quarter of 2021, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones was 2.6 million units, an increase of 480% year-on-year, of which Samsung's share was the highest, reaching 93%, and Huawei ranked second with a share of 6%. From January to November last year, Huawei's folding machine sales were 540,000 units, with a market share of 56%; Samsung folding machine sales of 320,000 units, with a market share of 33%; Xiaomi ranked third with sales of 70,000 units, with a market share of 8%; MOTO and ROYOLE (Royole's Variety) share of 2% and 1% respectively.

In terms of this market share, there is still a chance for new entrants, first of all, Huawei as the strongest folding screen player in China, its products have begun to be questioned, during the 315 period of this year, there are reports that "nearly 20,000 Huawei mobile phone folding screen failures occur frequently, maintenance into a problem", and the excessively high price also forms a limit, such as Huawei vertical folding machine P50 POCKET, the price of 8699, compared to the benchmark Samsung Z FLIP series is nearly 2,000 yuan higher.

Look at Samsung, Samsung mobile phones began to enter the trough in the country many times ago, it is not easy to rely on the folding screen "comeback", Samsung's decadence is not a product problem, the current Samsung in the domestic folding screen market is still maintaining a high market share is only because the competition is not enough, and now when OPPO, vivo these players further follow up, Samsung's share may be divided.

Then there is glory, glory is also as a "latecomer", but this hand has not been played well, from the beginning of the release to the present has been officially in a state of shortage, but the price increase can buy a new machine from the scalper, and I don't know what this operation is. From the perspective of an e-commerce platform, the sales volume of 2000+ is enough to show that consumers have no patience for the folding screen of glory, even if it is not good to send Moutai.

The problems encountered by Apple and Xiaomi are similar, the former is not yet a product, it is rumored that Apple's first folding screen mobile phone may have to wait until 2025, and Xiaomi is a lack of new products, the current market is only one MIX Fold Is difficult to deal with from all walks of life players left and right pinch.

In the end, only vivo and OPPO are left, their advantage is to learn from the experience of many "predecessors", see the shortcomings of folding screen products, like vivo said bluntly at the conference that "it is a little late, but (experience) is much better", of course, whether it is really much better still needs to be left to the market for verification. At least, from the current point of view, the market volume has not yet opened, and they are not "catching up with a late set". The disadvantage is that some potential users have been divided up by other first players, and no one knows where the ceiling of the folding screen end user is, but there will certainly not be too many users who are willing to try the folding screen at this stage.

Therefore, whether it is to rely on folding screen products to break through the high-end market, or to alleviate the "machine change anxiety" of young people through the innovation of folding screens, everything has just begun. As for the "unspoken rule" of the latecomers arriving first in the folding screen track, will it continue? Judging from the current competitive situation on the track, it is not impossible.