Author: Lonely Han
First of all, we must introduce the information that the russian northern group has begun to withdraw from the surrounding area of Kiev, whether it is Zhytomyr, Chernihiv or Samui, the withdrawal is orderly in all directions, why should the emphasis be on order, in fact, the retreat is a more complex military operation than the offensive.
According to the current satellite intelligence and unilateral intelligence of the Ukrainian side, the withdrawal of the Russian army has made the Ukrainian authorities a little uncertain, and the actor and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claim that in these directions, the Ukrainian army is gradually recovering the lost territory point by point, and a week ago, the actor also announced that he would make a big stride to counterattack, and the remarks were very different. This can only show that the retreat of the Northern Cluster of the Russian Army was very rapid and powerful, so that the Ukrainian army did not even have the idea of catching up and kicking, and even let the Russian army calmly take away a group of unknown numbers of Ukrainian troops.
However, the withdrawal of the Russian army from the direction of Kiev did not make Ukraine overjoyed, nor did it make Europe and the United States smile, but it made some people seem to have played chicken blood. Xiao Lonely really had the urge to spit a few words. From the time when the Russian army raided Antonov with two companies, Xiao Lonely said in private with Lao Chi and a few people, what if the Russian army really pretended to attack Kiev?
Xiao Lonely was really confused at that time, first, 14 Il-76s, an airborne regiment in the sky, no infantry fighting vehicles, no air support, just such a few people can take down the million-person metropolis garrisoned by three brigade-level units, how to look at it is very difficult.
In the spring of Prague in 1968, the Soviet army used an entire airborne division, as well as its paratrooper fighting vehicles and tank destroyers, to complete the occupation of Prague, followed by an entire tank division responsible for the surprise response. However, this time the Russian army only had 14 Il-76s, if it carried paratrooper chariots, it lacked enough manpower, if it was not equipped with paratrooper chariots, it was not enough to attack the metropolis with two mechanized brigade-level units stationed by light infantry.
The main target of the Russian army in the front of Kiev Oblast was Chernobyl, and after taking the area, it did not quickly move south to meet the remnants of the two airborne companies that were still fighting fiercely between Antonov and the Ukrainian army. The Russians in the northeast stayed for four days after advancing to Chernihiv before choosing to continue their march in the direction of Kiev. Airborne cross-point combat without heavy equipment and lack of follow-up support is not to take elite paratroopers as infantry, this is to send heads.
Second, the Russian army in the direction of Kiev lined up a huge motorized convoy of 40-60 kilometers long, which is a long line of the whole division, although the Russian army deployed two Taman motor rifle divisions in Belarus, but these two divisions did not break into Ukraine, the Chernobyl forest area is not suitable for this scale of marching, Xiao Lonely mentioned this deployment at the time, but explained to everyone to hold a wait-and-see attitude.
From beginning to end, the Russian army only invested about 30,000 troops in the entire Zhytomyr-Chernobyl-Chernihiv-Sumy circular battle line, that is, the total number of BTG clusters was about 25 or so, and with this strength alone, it was necessary to encircle the 5 border states and 4 brigade-level garrisons of the Ukrainian Army, which were stationed by 6 brigade-level units and the Kiev oblasts, which were seriously insufficient.
Third, the Russian army made its first attempt to cross the Dnieper River in Brovary, forcing the main Ukrainian army to withdraw from the east bank and blow up the main bridge, there was no further action, and the Russian army on the west bank also stopped advancing in an area of 30-40 kilometers from the Dnieper River, which was a very clever distance from the army point of view. As mentioned above, the direction of the Russian army in this direction is worth paying attention to, which will affect the offensive and defensive situation of the entire Kiev line.
The Russian army in Chernihiv did not go south in time to support the direction of Kiev and Brovary, but instead turned the main force to the southeast and the Russian army in the direction of Samui to converge, at first Xiao Lonely thought that this was to solve the White Russian side's security concerns about the border area, but from the current intelligence analysis, it is likely that this is also the Russian army to force Kiev to make a pretense, because these states are the main anti-Russian states, even tougher than Lviv.
At present, Russia and Ukraine in the war zone around Kiev Oblast has created a 30-50 kilometers wide fracture zone, the Ukrainian army concentrated in the Kiev area of 9 combat brigades losses are also relatively large, for a time can not be quickly integrated and through this broken zone to reinforce the Udong cluster, if you forcibly change the urban warfare deployment status to field large formation motorized march, will inevitably lead to air attacks by the Russian air and space force.
In addition, in the four border states from which the Russian army withdrew, the Ukrainian army was bound to divide its troops to occupy the key points to prevent the Russian army from rapidly deploying through the internal communication network to raid again, and it was still difficult for the remnants of 9 brigades to control such a large area, not to mention supporting the Wudong cluster. This quick surprise attack forced the enemy to change the strategic military deployment of the whole country, which is very similar to an operation in 1979.
The Russians withdrew, but the Ukrainian authorities did not show any intention of ending the war quickly, but instead made the first surprise attack on Russian soil after the Russian army withdrew, attacking an oil storage tank in Belgorod. There are many doubts in this, and Xiao Lonely analyzes several possibilities and future implications one by one.
First, the geographical location of the attack, Belgorod is 40 kilometers from the border and 80 kilometers from the besieged Kharkiv, which is, according to common sense, the focus of the Russian army. Two Mi-24 night low-altitude raids are theoretically achievable, especially in the face of Russia, a traditional opponent who has been penetrated by moscow at low altitudes, and the probability of success of this operation is greater than that of other opponents.
But why did Ukraine choose the extremely difficult helicopter low-altitude raid tactic? Wouldn't a dot "U" be a better option? If the Dot U of the Wudong Cluster ran out of stocks when it attacked Donetsk, then hail rockets also had a way to launch a similar attack, with a larger lethal surface and stronger shock.
Second, the two Mi-24s certainly did not take off from Kharkiv, which had been besieged for almost a month, and the nearest possible area was also taken off from around Luhansk, and the long-distance low-altitude raid was several hundred kilometers, only attacking a civilian oil storage tank, not even causing deflagration, but only causing a fire, this lethality seems to be low, and it can not even talk about any tactical effect.
The reaction of the Russian army is also outrageous, although the raid may be achieved, but even ordinary residents have photographed the two helicopters and uploaded them to the network, but the Russian air defense group and the air and space force vigilance group, which should be on high alert, did not even react at all.
Third, the actors and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense evaluated this matter on the second day, which was unusual, before the Ukrainian army but any company-level combat victory actors can blow into the sky, but this raid on Russian soil was successful, and the Ukrainian top level was all silenced, neither denying nor acknowledging. It was really difficult for Xiao Lonely to judge the strategic intent of this raid.
If the raid is really launched by the Ukrainian side, then the above three considerations can be further developed:
Why did the Ukrainian side launch this raid, and it was a sensitive period when the armistice negotiations were about to reach an agreement, after the withdrawal of Russian troops. If the raid was decided by ukraine's top brass, what was its strategic intent? Just to show off your muscles and attack a potential military target?
If this raid is not a decision of the Ukrainian hierarchy, then it will be the same as the recent attack on the People of the Donets River by the Oudong Cluster with dots, representing the Wudong Cluster moving in a divisive direction and no longer under the orders of Kiev (at least against the Yin and Yang). The change of commander of the Wudong cluster is only a few days, and it is also possible that it will be vacated by the combat brigades below.
If this raid is a russian act, then is its strategic intention to be attacked on the mainland, mobilize the army's follow-up 240,000 or so conscripts to join the Wudong decisive battle, quickly solve the Wudong heavy army cluster, and complete the independent goal of 2-3 states in Wudong?
If this raid was an operation that neither Russia nor Ukraine had planned, then who was pushing the Ukrainian military's front-line commanders to launch this strike? Is the intention to mix up the waters of eastern Ukraine and push Russia and Ukraine further down the abyss of all-out war? Combined with the statement that a certain country has begun to encourage allies to provide Soviet main battle tanks to the Ukrainian side, it means that everyone should taste it carefully.
Finally, Xiao Lonely reminds some people that the US imperialists in the Gulf War were still stolen from their homes, and they also lost a lot of people, so don't selectively forget.