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The era of driverlessness is just around the corner? Conventional cars will be replaced in 2035

Organize | Zhang Yuming, editor-in-charge of | Tu Min

Exhibiting | CSDN(ID:CSDNnews)

The "dream" of driverless technology began in the 1980s:

In 1986, Carnegie Mellon University built the NavLab, an autonomous train.

In 2009, Google entered the driverless industry and became a leader.

In 2017, Baidu's self-driving open platform Apollo released its first version, Apollo 1.0.

In recent years, driverless technology has advanced by leaps and bounds, and major vehicle companies and driverless system solution providers (such as Baidu Apollo and Jingchi) are also continuously promoting the commercialization of unmanned driving.

Today, unmanned driving is no longer a distant "future technology".

Driverless: The highest level of autonomous driving

In March 2022, Waymo, a self-driving car company (a subsidiary of Alphabet Corporation), plans to start offering rides for its purely driverless cars in San Francisco without the need for human safety drivers.

The era of driverlessness is just around the corner? Conventional cars will be replaced in 2035

Driverless Waymo vehicles operating in San Francisco (Source Waymo)

Driverless driving is the highest state of autonomous driving. Or to put it another way, driverless driving is the ultimate direction of autonomous driving.

At present, the industry's recognized classification of autonomous driving is proposed by the American SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers, the American Society of Automotive Engineers), with six grades of L0 to L5.

Level 0 (no automation): The car is operated by a human driver with full authority, which can be assisted by warning and protection systems during driving.

Level 1 (Driving Support): Provides driving support for one operation in the reel and acceleration and deceleration through the driving environment, and the other driving actions are operated by the human driver.

Level 2 (Partial Automation): Provides driving support for multiple operations in the steering wheel and acceleration and deceleration through the driving environment, and all other driving actions are operated by the human driver.

Level 3 (Conditional Automation): All driving operations are performed by an unmanned system. According to the system request, the human driver provides an appropriate response.

Level 4 (Highly Automated): All driving operations are performed by an unmanned system. According to the system request, the human driver does not necessarily need to respond to all system requests, limit road and environmental conditions, etc.

Level 5 (fully automated): All driving operations are performed by an unmanned system. Human drivers take over where possible. Drive in all road and environmental conditions.

In China, cars in the L1 and L2 stages have been very common, for example, there are some distance monitoring systems, when the distance between the car and the vehicle in front of the vehicle is detected to reach a certain range, it will automatically control the vehicle brakes, which has reached the L2 level of automatic driving requirements.

22.2% of passenger cars in 2021 are equipped with L2 and below autonomous driving systems, and technologies such as adaptive cruise (ACC), automatic emergency braking (AEB), lane keeping system (LKS), and automatic parking (APA) have been widely used on board.

However, relatively speaking, there are not many cars that have reached the L3 level, but there are still some vehicles under the domestic car companies that have L3 level automatic driving capabilities, such as Audi A8, GAC New Energy Eian LX, Changan UNI-T and Xiaopeng P7.

However, these cars also need to be under specific conditions to achieve L3 level autonomous driving. For example, the Audi A8L 60 TFSIe and Changan UNI-T can almost leave the steering wheel with both hands at speeds of up to 40km/h. GAC BJEV EAN LX aims to achieve L3-level autonomous driving at high speeds with almost no change lanes.

The L4 is already on the way

For the L4 that everyone is looking forward to, although there is current practice in China, the technology is not mature.

According to official information, the biggest highlight of the WM W6 is that it is equipped with a "cloud intelligent unmanned parking system", which can achieve L4 level automatic driving in specific scenarios, which is also the first mass production model with L4 level automatic driving technology in China.

The HI version of alpha S is equipped with Huawei's self-developed Autonomous Driving Solution (ADS), which is the industry's first high-end autonomous driving full-stack system that has passed the ASIL-D functional safety assessment. Based on the L4 level autonomous driving architecture, it provides a full-stack solution for L4-L2+ level autonomous driving, which can meet the smooth evolution needs of L4-L2+.

Nezha S is equipped with 3 lidars, 5 millimeter wave radars and 6 high-definition cameras, which has a high perception of the surrounding environment, and can monitor obstacles and vehicle operations around the vehicle in an all-round way in real time, and cope with complex traffic environments in multiple scenarios.

These models took the lead in achieving L4 autonomous driving and achieved good results. However, due to the impact of policies and the environment, the current automatic driving cannot really be on the road for daily use.

Autonomous driving road testing

Of course, to achieve automatic driving, it is indispensable to road testing, through the real road conditions to test the situation of vehicle automatic driving, improve safety.

Waymo has been testing self-driving cars in San Francisco for a decade. In 2017, the company launched a limited ride-hailing service outside of Phoenix, eventually growing to include more than 300 vehicles.

After several years of testing in the suburbs, the company expanded testing near Google's Mountain View headquarters to include some of San Francisco's dense, complex streets. Last year, the company had the most self-driving miles of any company in the state that was allowed to test, at 2.3 million miles. (629,000 miles in 2020, 1.45 million miles in 2019)

The era of driverlessness is just around the corner? Conventional cars will be replaced in 2035

Arizona customers have been calling for Waymo to expand to downtown Phoenix (Image source Waymo)

Domestic autonomous driving road tests are also increasing, which further reflects the improvement of autonomous driving technology.

On January 26, 2022, the Beijing Autonomous Vehicle Road Test Report (2021) (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") was officially released. This release is the fourth after three consecutive years in 2018, 2019 and 2020.

The report mentions that 27 test roads in the two administrative districts of Daxing District and Tongzhou District were newly opened, and 51 test roads in Shunyi District were added. The length of test roads in the city increased by 46.9% compared with the end of 2020.

By the end of 2021, a total of 170 vehicles from 16 test subjects will participate in the universal technology test of autonomous vehicles. The cumulative safe mileage of road testing has exceeded 3911694 kilometers, ranking a leading position in the country. Among them, 124 manned test vehicles, the cumulative manned test road mileage reached 2.51 million kilometers, more than 300,000 people participated in the manned trial operation test, and the road test trial operation entered the large-scale stage.

Baidu, the representative enterprise, completed 63,409.94 kilometers of unmanned manned demonstration in Shougang Park, and the number of passengers reached 17,433.

On March 31, 2022, the Beijing Municipal High-level Autonomous Driving Demonstration Zone Work Office issued the "Implementation Rules for the Management of Road Testing and Demonstration Application of Intelligent Connected Passenger Buses in the Pilot Zone of Beijing Intelligent Networking Policy (Trial)". Following the launch of the self-driving taxi test, the intelligent networked passenger bus will also start the autonomous driving road test in the Beijing Economic Development Zone.

The era of driverlessness is just around the corner? Conventional cars will be replaced in 2035

Source of the picture is Beijing Economic Development Zone

Unmanned, obstructive and long

The market size of China's driverless automotive industry has expanded rapidly. According to Statista data, from 2015 to 2019, the market size of the mainland driverless automobile industry expanded rapidly, and the size of the mainland driverless car market reached 9.84 billion yuan in 2019, and the market size affected by the epidemic in 2020 will decline, with a forward-looking estimate of 9.54 billion yuan. Under research and Markets' forecast, the global driverless car market size will reach $27.3 billion in 2021 and reach $59.4 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.84%.

It is predicted that around 2035, the global driverless car will gradually replace the traditional car and enter the explosive stage of sales.

For the development of the automatic driving industry, some netizens expressed concern, believing that automatic driving may lead to many people losing their jobs, and if an accident occurs, it will be very troublesome to deal with. Some netizens also believe that this technology is not very mature at present, and the price is expensive, and there is still a long process to the era of fully autonomous driving, and there is no need to worry prematurely. What are your thoughts on this, welcome to leave a message to let us know.

Resources:

https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/355747924

https://baike.baidu.com/item/Waymo/20280250

https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/30/23002082/waymo-driverless-san-francisco-downtown-phoenix?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30855624

https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/449449627

https://new.qq.com/omn/20220327/20220327A09LA300.html

https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2022-03-31/doc-imcwipii1628261.shtml

https://new.qq.com/omn/20210503/20210503A07SPM00.html

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