Producer: Observer Network Car Channel [Official Number: Engine Sight]
Author: Pan Yuchen
Edit: Lou Bing
【Introduction: For vehicle manufacturers in the downstream of the industrial chain, how to resolve this crisis has become a big test of the control of car companies on the supply chain. 】
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the shortage of supply led by chips has led to the reduction and suspension of production by major automobile manufacturers around the world, and the impact has spread so far, and a stable solution mechanism has not yet been formed.
For vehicle manufacturers in the downstream of the industrial chain, how to resolve this crisis has become a big test of the car company's control over the supply chain.
Among them, delaying the delivery time is a helpless measure for most manufacturers. Since the second half of last year, the delivery time of Volkswagen, GM, Toyota, Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and other leading companies has been delayed to varying degrees.
Compared with joint venture brands, the "core disease" of independent brands is smaller. This is due to the fact that the joint venture car companies are greatly affected by the global supply chain and generally adhere to the "zero inventory" production and marketing model; independent brands mainly supply the local market and have more local supply chains to choose from, so there is more room for maneuver.
However, some head brands and hot-selling models will also be plagued by lack of cores. Since the second half of last year, geely, Great Wall and Changan three major independent brand car companies have experienced sales declines to varying degrees.
In the near future, Great Wall Euler has announced in February that black cats, white cats and other models will no longer accept orders; the once-popular GAC Trumpchi Shadow Leopard has also reduced production, and the waiting time for fist products such as Haval H6 and Hongqi HS5 is also more than one month.
In order to calm the uneasiness of consumers, some car companies do not hesitate to complete some new car deliveries by reducing allocations. Since the second half of last year, many Audi owners have said that they only get a remote control key after picking up the car, and the spare key needs to be returned later; BMW cancels the touch screen of some models and gives users economic compensation; Mercedes-Benz no longer provides all configuration models in Germany, and consumers can buy low-end models at a low price or simply cancel the order.
Its own brands are no exception: ideal in October last year, it took the approach of delivering the missing part of the radar first, and then reloading the sensors later. Subsequently, Xiaopeng's newly listed P5 model also followed suit. However, the above car companies have notified users in advance of their allocation reductions, and will be compensated to a certain extent. The practice of individual companies is not authentic enough: in December last year, because the great wall Euler could not supply chips, secretly reduced the 8-core processor advertised in the early stage to a 4-core processor that had been listed for many years, causing unanimous condemnation and complaints from users.
Price increases are also a way for car companies to alleviate pressure. For example, last year, some GAC Toyota dealers used the lack of production capacity such as chips as an excuse, so that consumers can only extract the just-listed Xena through a markup; the main sales model of the "BBA" no longer provides preferential treatment, and brands such as Lexus and Maybach also have rumors of price increases; especially for new energy vehicle companies with higher chip dependence: Since February this year, Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng, Ideal, Lantu and other brands have successively announced price increases.
However, in the view of Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association of Automobile Associations, the shortage of chips has not led to a sharp rise in the price of traditional fuel vehicles, which is because traditional dealers are more mature and have a strong ability to adjust price changes, while new energy vehicles are more hindered by the price increase of battery raw materials. He believes that the shortage of chips is more caused by upstream monopolies and must be self-examined and reflected.
Obviously, the passive response of car companies to "core disease" is doomed to cure only the symptoms, in order to cure the root cause, the mastery of independent production mode and upstream supply chain is the key.
Auto analyst Zhang Xiang believes that after the emergence of the chip crisis, car companies can reduce the production beat by actively adjusting production plans. In fact, in view of the limited supply and inventory of chips, large automotive groups often choose to lose cars and give priority to providing chips for models with high demand and high profits. For example, volkswagen group has put the supply of luxury brands such as Audi and Porsche in the first place, which has affected the sales of some Volkswagen brand models in disguise; Toyota, the world's largest automobile manufacturer, has responded by calling the global Toyota supply system and shortening the delivery cycle.
A safer approach is to "have food in your hands and don't panic in your heart."
In recent years, Tesla has achieved breakthrough growth in production and sales relying on its Shanghai factory. Although every quarter of last year was also affected by the core shortage, Tesla also hedged it through its own development of microcontrollers, reaching 19 types. Tesla's control over chip supply was also praised by Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess, who invited Musk to an internal meeting to share his experience.
A morgan stanley research report believes that tesla in addition to the ability to develop its own chips, but also has a strong vertical integration capabilities. In the process of negotiations with suppliers, Tesla's status as a leader in new energy vehicles and the world's most valuable car company also helps it obtain a stable supply.
BYD's orders soared after the launch of the DM-i model last year, but its annual sales have not been significantly reduced by the shortage of chips. In this regard, Du Guozhong, deputy general manager of BYD's brand and public relations division, explained that the company has been engaged in the research and development of IGBT as early as 20 years ago, and has developed and produced some MCUs on its own, with a high chip self-sufficiency rate, and even provides different technical solutions to help other car companies solve urgent needs.
In addition, because the overall sales of new energy vehicle companies are still far less than traditional leaders such as Volkswagen Toyota, there are not many temporary difficulties. For Tesla, BYD and other leading new energy vehicle companies, the lack of factory vehicle production capacity and battery supply brings far more constraints than the chip problem. However, with the continuous rise of market share, coupled with the multiple factors of the internal and external environment, these industry leaders are also destined to face new challenges.
However, car companies that can achieve "chip freedom" are after all very few, even Tesla and BYD with self-developed products can only use it as a supplementary means, and more core components still rely on upstream leading enterprises. As far as the Chinese market is concerned, due to the late start of the domestic chip industry, the self-sufficiency rate is less than 10%, and the localization rate is only 5%, so that most of the chips of joint venture and independent car companies rely on imports, and the repeated overseas epidemic situation has led to serious uncertainty in the supply chain.
In order to change the status quo, many car companies have established cooperative relations with chip companies in the form of investment and other forms to stabilize their supply chains. In February 2021, the well-known domestic chip supplier Horizon "Shuangxi Linmen" first obtained investment from Great Wall Motors, and then signed a strategic cooperation agreement with SAIC Motor; in March, Dongfeng Motor became the second largest shareholder of Wuxi Huaxin; in May, Geely and two chip companies jointly established Guangdong Xin Yueneng Semiconductor; in November, SAIC completed the A round of investment in XECO Semiconductor; in March this year, Xiaopeng and FAW also invested in Zhanxin and Xinqing Semiconductor Company respectively. And this also allows more domestic car chips to have the opportunity to get on the car "actual combat".
At the just-concluded National Two Sessions, automotive chips have become the focus of attention of car company representatives. For example, Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC Motor, suggested the establishment of unified technical specifications and standards for vehicle-grade chips, and the state took the lead in setting up special funds to encourage chip companies and automobile enterprises to participate together; Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, suggested guiding foreign automotive chip companies to invest in China and establish an emergency reserve mechanism for chips and important raw materials; Wang Fengying, president of Great Wall Motors, suggested giving priority to solving the problem of missing cores in the short term, improving the independent industrial layout in the medium term, and building a long-term mechanism for the introduction and training of industrial talents Zhang Xinghai, chairman of Xiaokang Group, suggested that the competent department of automotive chips should be set up from the level of national ministries and commissions to formulate top-level design and supporting measures for the development of the automotive chip industry.
The relevant state departments have also approached core issues such as automotive chip supply chain and autonomy from a strategic height. In February 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission and 11 other ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Intelligent Vehicle Innovation Development Strategy", which proposed the construction of an industrial cluster of key components of intelligent vehicles, including vehicle-grade chips, intelligent operating systems and intelligent computing platforms; the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" adopted in October of the same year clearly stated that "efforts to promote breakthroughs in key technologies and products such as vehicle-grade chips and vehicle operating systems" as an important part of the implementation of the basic technology upgrading project of new energy vehicles.
In recent years, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other relevant departments have established an independent and controllable development system for automotive chips through the establishment of the Automotive Chip Innovation Alliance, the establishment of a chip supply and demand exchange platform, the compilation of chip technology manuals, and the punishment of chip hoarding and price increase. At the end of February this year, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, further said at a press conference that multiple measures will be taken to maintain the stable operation of the automobile industry and improve the supply capacity of chips is one of the priorities.
However, the implementation and effectiveness of the above package plan still need to be prepared in time.
In general, although the epidemic has been in the past 2 years, the chip problem still shows no signs of improvement, and the phenomenon of rising material prices and disorder in the production and marketing of the automobile market is still the mainstream of the industry.
According to AutoForecast Solutions, a data forecasting company for the automotive industry, as of December last year, the number of cars in the world that were cut due to chip shortages exceeded 10 million, of which China alone, the largest market, reduced production by more than 2 million, accounting for one-fifth. The shortage of parts led by chips has become a "psoriasis" that seriously restricts automobile production and sales and the transformation of the "new four modernizations" - not only is it difficult to treat, but also easy to recur.
Perhaps only the end of the pandemic and the return to stability in the international situation triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be able to return the entire industry to normal levels. In the face of this "spring cold", only the upstream and downstream manufacturers, relevant departments and consumers of the industry can jointly help to minimize the impact of the crisis and gradually return the auto market to the right track. 【END】