Football is attractive because it has too many accidents based on the inevitability of strength.
Italy lost to North Macedonia, and the world has been chanting for half a year the problem of "Ronaldo and the European Championship champion who you want to see" has suddenly come to an answer. Whether it's a huge positive for Portugal or not, the first collective winter break in the big five leagues at the end of the year (the first time it appeared in the World Cup in November) allowed Jorginho, Villati and Donnarumma to rest.
Looking back at the whole process from the World Cup qualifiers to the play-offs after the end of Last Year's European Championship, there are too many contingencies. If Jorginho had conceded one less penalty against Switzerland twice, Italy would not have fallen into the abyss of the play-offs; if Berardi had scored even one goal in this tidal wave of opportunities, fans would not have known Trajkovsky.
Of course, not many people can recite this difficult name, only remember that Italy said goodbye.
These may be small probability events, but they just happen continuously. I have to say that this is the most attractive place in football, there has never been a strong person who must win, only the winner laughs to the end. As a fan who has watched Italy for more than two decades, a large number of disappointments could not find any exit in the early hours of the morning, and finally became numb.
Yes, as a full-fledged Italian fan, I'm somewhat used to this cross-cycle between peaks and bottoms.
Even in the period when Italy was relatively strong, there was often a World Cup/European Cup that played well, and the next European Cup/World Cup was a mess. When the strength declines now, it has evolved into - the European Cup has played well, the World Cup cannot enter the final circle; the European Cup "upset" to win the championship, the World Cup still can not enter the final circle.
Everyone scolds Ventura, and in the end it is found that everyone is Ventura.
Is this law just accidental? Of course not.
The philosophy of Italian football, which has long been "you don't make mistakes first", goes deep into the marrow. Don't make mistakes in defensive positions, keep don't make mistakes in formation, and then calculate other things. In the past, there have been times when the defense is solid, the attack is followed, and everyone can be five or five; Mancini's coaching has been successfully transformed into a defensive solidity, offensive suppression, but without key players such as Spinazzora and Little Chiesa, the goal is still very random, and who continues to open five or five.
It was Spinazzola who could play both full-back and winger roles, rushing into every attack and defense, and the team could play a smooth formation change and a full-army assault.
It was Chiesa Jr. who forced a threatening long-range shot in the Final of the European Cup, (coupled with the cooperation of the South Gate Coach) that ignited the back-attack flame that the whole team was always suppressed.
Without them, Italy went from being five to five with Belgium, Spain, and England to being five or five with Switzerland and North Macedonia. There were 32 shots on goal in the game, but there was no golden opportunity in the absolute sense, and the slightly better ones were wasted by Berardi and Immobile.
As regular time drew to a close, it was Trajkovsky who rejected the extra time with a kick. Jorginho was still complaining about suspected handball, and Chiellini, who came off the bench, did not deploy his body to block it. If this were the final of the European Cup, they would most likely not have made such a choice. But they are already European Champions, and in this way they bid farewell to the World Cup stage in advance.
It's not Italian, but it's very Italian.
Behind these things, there is also a deeper inevitability, that is, the withering of Italian football talents.
If you push back more than a decade, Spinazzolla and Chiesa Jr. simply cannot be so irreplaceable. The front-line fans first missed Vieri and Tony, and then felt that the tactical effect of Yakunta would be much greater. If the centre-back has more strengths for the Mesozoic and rising stars, Chiellini is estimated to have retired after winning the European Championship.
Digging deeper, people tend to mention these two terms when talking about talent withering: youth and league.
The problem of italian youth training has a long history, but in recent years it has "superficially" improved. Evidence of the improvement is the impressive results of youth teams at all levels, with U17 and U19 finishing three times at the European Youth Championship and two World Youth League final fours, enough to prove the overall competitiveness of the young players. However, it is reasonable to say that this wave of continuous output can make Serie A a youth storm, but the reality is that most of them can't play at all after entering the adult team.
Due to financial constraints and performance pressures, a large number of middle and lower Serie A teams are popular to go to the sea to find cheap foreign aid, especially Eastern European players with EU passports. Even Atalanta, which has been known for its high-quality youth training for many years, has changed its lineup into a multinational coalition before it becomes "true blue and black". Not to mention the traditional giants such as the northern top three, most of the local players are used to make up the registration rules, and fewer and fewer can play the main force.
Over the years, the Italian Football Association has constantly tried to improve the chances of playing in the local youth training in the form of hard policies. But we have more experience in this regard, that is, forced seedling pulling can never really help. U17 and U19 all kinds of good results, to U21 directly stop cooking.
Italy U21 head coach Nicolato just sent a long complaint a few days ago, keeping his intentions on the ground, probably can force such a translation: "I also have reason to say, what people our national youth team once brought, are selected from Serie A!" Now you can only choose from Serie B, can he play? Do you have the ability to do that? After going down again, the national youth team will go to Italy to select people, and the face will not be needed. ”
What's even more frightening is that at the same time, the discerning people know that the overall level of serie A is still declining.
Although the level of competition in a national league and the strength of the national team are not necessarily closely related, there are examples of youth training seedlings blooming everywhere in various national leagues. However, Italian football has not had much culture of playing abroad for a long time, and there have been many world series records in the past in which all members come from one league. With the decline in the level of the league in your home country and the fact that young players cannot play or go abroad, do you think there will be any hope of maintaining the level or even improving?
Not to mention that North Macedonia is not a fish belly, and they have also advanced rapidly into the main competition of last year's European Championship, and also won 2-1 away to Germany in the World Preliminary Round.
Sailing against the current, if you don't advance, you will retreat, this is football.
And Italy? Insigne is about to go to North America to "retire" and is still wearing the number 10 jersey of the national team. Immobile has never fully proven himself in the national team, but there is really no Italian centre-forward at the club who is more stable than him. What Berardi has been able to do for so many years is to cut in with his left foot, and this time his inactivity just turned to a complete failure.
When pressing the opponent to attack and need to score, no one from the main force to the substitute can stand in the big club, do you say that this is just a "system game"?
Mancini led Italy to european domination 256 days ago
Is it strange that Mancini doesn't use new people? He has already selected Tonali and Raspadori and has also developed a tailor-made succession plan for them. Even the people who didn't come, such as Skamaka, did not show their performances in the league to surpass their predecessors, and the work of realizing the potential should be done by the club rather than the national team.
In the face of great disappointment, Italian fans can't even tell who should be blamed.
Because this time out is full of accidents, but you can't deny that four consecutive World Cups are either out of the group stage or can't be played at all, there is no inevitability. Looking back at the European Championship winning, you can't tell whether it was a burst of luck, a return to the light, or an old tradition that has been accumulated for many years.
As for the remaining Italian fans, they have already developed a special habit in these two or three decades. If last year's European Cup made them lie flat for a long time and suddenly revived, which resonated with the resonance that life can still be rescued, then the exit of the World Cup play-off is to fall back from the "old man talking about juvenile madness" back to the cruel reality, continue to be still, silently waiting for the next time the heartstrings are pulled open.
Will there be a next time? I think there should be.
After all, the next World Cup will be expanded to 48 teams, we originally thought that this was prepared for the Chinese team, but we did not expect that it was actually waiting for the European Championship.