When Juventus were once again declared a penalty, from deducting 15 points to recovering points and then being deducted 10 points, many people thought it was a "child's play" in Italian football.
The problem was that when Marotta left, Juve, who had taken too many steps, encountered unexpected pandemic effects. Subsequently, in order to cover up the problem, a road of no return was embarked on. When the management refuses to admit guilt and punishment, there is this "good show".
01. Agnelli's steps have taken a big step: the expansion strategy collides with the epidemic
a. Abandoning Marotta is a big evil: the introduction of Ronaldo is the fuse
At the end of November 2021, Juve's offices in Turin and Milan were targeted by a surprise attack by the Turin prosecutor's office and the Italian Fiscal Guard.
Because of this event, Juve's share price fell by 25% in an instant, ushering in a four-year trough. Even compared to the peak of market capitalization in 2019, it is a full 70% less.
The origin of the matter may begin with Andre Agnelli's ambition and Marotta's departure. Marotta is arguably Italy's best sports administrator in the last 20 years. In his more than 8 years at Juve, he has not only helped the team out of the phone, but also formed a unique pattern in Serie A.
However, the team's two-time Champions League final runners-up made Andre Agnelli unwilling, and he was eager for greater success, so "pragmatism of doing big things with little money" was no longer popular.
Juve's leadership is eager to take the initiative to transform, change the local strategy based on dominating Serie A, and expand its market influence from the Apennine peninsula to the world.
Cristiano Ronaldo came to Juve in this context, and Marotta became a victim because of his fierce opposition. His deputy, Palatić, came to the fore.
At the time, it was difficult to say who was the better fit between Marotta and Palatić, after all, Palatich was also his right hand on Marotta's successful journey.
Later, when we saw Marotta help Inter reach the Champions League final and become the driving force behind it, Paratici actually messed things up at Tottenham, and it may not be difficult to understand that Juve made a mistake.
b. Expansion strategy collides with the pandemic: Juve have reached a dead end
Regardless of the team's results, Juve's initial goal was to move to the next level in the market. After getting Cristiano Ronaldo, the team's share price began to soar, at least initially, Juve were moving towards the set goal.
When the epidemic hits, any team that chooses an expansion strategy will suffer the biggest blow. Barca and Juventus, obviously the clearest examples.
This has nothing to do with the initial right or wrong, but after the pandemic, they are the biggest losers. High investment requires high returns, and the epidemic has made the rewards disappear, which may be the reason why Juve and Barca thought of "making transactions" in the first place.
Just transferring to do the accounts could not save Juve, which had a huge financial gap at that time. Like Barca, they also need a salary cut, and officially announced that the first-team players led by Cristiano Ronaldo have given up their 4 months' wages.
However, it was later confirmed that this time the salary cut was fake, and the players were later compensated for unpaid wages, but these expenses were not recorded as truthfully.
02. It is difficult to be punished for the transfer fee, and the salary door is a dead end
a. The transfer fee can be: 15 points are successfully refunded
The exchange between Artur and Pjanic opened up Juve's problems on the books. Because unlike Marotta, Juve also had a tradition of "making accounts" for youth and loan players before (which is also the norm in Serie A), but on the one hand, it is highly hidden, and on the other hand, it accumulates through multiple numbers, which is not easy to be noticed and targeted. Palatiqi's operation is too dazzling.
In the case of Pjanic, the player's remaining amortization cost on books at that time was about 9.6 million euros. He went to Barca for a transfer fee of €60 million, bringing back €50.4 million in book profits for Juve.
Even if a nominal transfer fee of $70 million needs to be paid for Artur, the amortized cost recorded in the current period is $14 million.
So in the first season of the deal, regardless of the difference in annual salaries between the two players, Juventus' profit in the transfer market will exceed 36 million euros.
Despite this approach, some naked "fake". However, because the market price assessment of players is a very complex behavior in itself. In this area, there is a lot of room for ripping off (Artur's de-turn was worth as much as 56 million euros at the time, and Pjanic also had 45 million).
In Serie A, there are also eight other clubs in trouble. It is even said that "accounting" with youth training and co-players is a common behavior in Serie A. Barca and Juve are not really in trouble, and the accusations about this are not enough to bring down the big teams.
Because of this, Juve previously appealed successfully and returned the 15 Serie A points deducted. This may seem like a farce, but it still makes sense.
b. Salary cannot be escaped: 10 points deduction is still less
What really makes Juve inescapable is "salary fraud", that is, after the outbreak of the epidemic, Juve officially announced that first-team players such as Ronaldo would give up 4 months' wages.
But in fact, in the end, the team reached a private agreement with the player, and the payment was delayed outside the ledger. For example, when Ronaldo left Juve, he received a lump sum compensation for unpaid wages.
According to the explicit regulations of Italian professional football, signing a yin and yang contract with a player, each case will bring a penalty of 1-2 points deduction.
This time, Juve signed a "yin and yang contract" with the first team as a whole, and deducting 10 points is considered less.
03. Refusal to plead guilty to light punishment: Juve still have to fight to the end?
a. Refusal to admit guilt and light punishment: Management cannot bear responsibility
In fact, the Italian Football Federation sports prosecutor was originally more moderate, and was even willing to accept Juve's guilty plea, thus considering halving the punishment.
But Juve are reluctant to accept a light plea because it would cost the management the opportunity to turn over and bring more losses (share price, sponsors, etc.).
Juve put on such an attitude, which can also be understood. After all, even if they do deduct points and cause the team to play in the Europa League next season, they can still guarantee a certain advantage and competitiveness in Serie A.
From the Deloitte Football Club wealth list, Juve is still much ahead of Serie A teams in terms of revenue. As long as they can survive next season and return to the Champions League stage, they can still hope to get back on track.
b. Standings after deduction of points: The next 2 rounds are very mysterious
However, after being deducted points for the second time, Juve once again failed to perform, losing 4-1 to Empoli, causing the current ranking to fall to 7th in the league.
If Juve win, in fact, they can take the initiative in the fourth place in their own hands (on the scientific nature of deducting 15 points into 10 points).
Because in the last two rounds of Serie A, Juve will face AC Milan at their home stadium. Had they won three straight after deducting points, they could still have secured a top-four finish.
But even if you lose, there are still many variables in the future. After all, Inter need to play four games, including two cup finals. Can Inter go all out to play Serie A? Their opponents also happen to be Atalanta, a team currently in the Europa League.
Juve's final Serie A ranking will be first, and it is really difficult to conclude whether to play the Champions League, Europa League or Europa League next season.
Conclusion:
The root of the problem lies in the plan that Juve wanted to reform in 2018. To become bigger and stronger, out of the Apennines, with the size of Juve at that time, it seems that there is nothing to blame.
But when the epidemic hit, it became an endless filling pit. Whether it is the player's accounting, or the salary is sent out, it is to solve the problem, and the "bad idea" that has to come up with ends up being an unmanageable mess.