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The new energy vehicle, which has been racing for three years, hit the first wall called 2022.
It was an eventful spring, we saw crude oil prices soaring at one point to break through $130 / barrel, we saw the London nickel in two trading days in 48 hours increased by 2.7 times, we saw lithium carbonate rose tenfold in the past year to more than 500,000 yuan / ton.
Immediately after that, oil prices across the country lined up to run to the 9 yuan era, and almost every electric vehicle company you shouted in name announced price increases, and the increase in representative models reached 5% to 8% of the original car price.
Tesla raised prices three times in a week, and the long-endurance version rose more than 8%
From January to February this year, the sales of new energy vehicles continued the momentum of last year, but the first two months have not been affected by the general price increase. If the market state is only "continuing last year", under the influence of a series of unfavorable factors in March, subsequent sales may not be able to maintain the upward trend against the current.
More importantly, who would dare to say that raw material prices have peaked?
"Also consider the course of history"
Just over a year ago, crude oil rose to $70 to break through pre-pandemic levels, and base metal prices reached all-time highs. Commodities have risen to new highs, so much so that Ben Hu sent a circle of friends to persuade relatives and friends to buy a car, please take the time...
However, who would have thought that even if the price was already so "high" at that time, the prices of crude oil, aluminum and nickel would rise by another 50% + in the next year, and the price of copper would rise further by 14% (the nickel price here is still calculated according to the "demon nickel" event).
One anniversary
Under the repeated broadcasts of the media in the past few days, you should all know that the reason why the "demon nickel" has tripled in 48 hours is related to a well-known geo-military conflict.
Unfortunately, long before the conflict broke out, various metal futures had been rising for 1 to 2 years. There are few exceptions in the entire commodity market, and everyone has noticed that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has caused crude oil to surge for a short time, and the price of Brent oil has broken through $130 at one point. But in fact, before that, cloth oil had gone from $70 in December last year to $100 in February this year, a three-month increase of more than 40%.
Crude oil prices: from the collapse of the epidemic, all the way to a new high
Nickel prices, february 2020 to February 2022, ruled out an unusual surge in March
Among the major base metals, aluminum, tin, zinc, etc. are at the highest levels ever, and copper, lead, and nickel (before the surge) are also in the historical high price range. Since the beginning of 2020, these metal futures have experienced an almost two-year increase that has doubled at every turn, and has continued to rise to this day after returning to pre-pandemic prices.
Raw material prices have been rising for a long time, and geopolitical conflicts are only the last fuse, so there is no need to expect a natural sharp decline in the conflict. Behind this is the long-term mismatch between supply and demand in basic industries, the increasingly disorderly credit expansion of the Federal Reserve and the offshore dollar system, and the recklessness of global ESG towards extremism. If a causal relationship had to be established, the conflict would be more like a result than a cause.
Global capital investment in crude oil exploration and production has been less than half of what it was when oil prices were high in 2014 in recent years
Aluminium prices, February 2020 to March 2022
Only then did people realize, or perhaps not realize, that the boom in the electric vehicle market and the take-off of the lithium battery industry over the past three years were actually based on the forward fair prices of their special raw materials, which have not been fully "discovered".
Electric vehicles (of course) require more expensive metals than fuel vehicles. In addition to the battery materials such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium that are almost not needed by fuel vehicles, electric vehicles also need more than twice as much copper (wires) as fuel vehicles; for medium and high-end models, due to the weight reduction pressure brought by endurance, electric vehicles also need a lot of aluminum more than fuel vehicles.
The rise in raw material prices also has an impact on fuel vehicles, but to a much smaller extent; due to the difference in raw materials required by each, the cost of ternary lithium > lithium iron phosphate > fuel vehicles has risen.
"Just a transition", nonsense
Don't read this, think that this article is "singing the decline" of electric vehicles, new energy, low-carbon sustainability. I haven't explained this much, just because the readers of Ben Hu's default number have long since departed from the "extreme to extreme" thinking of "non-A or B". Perhaps, if the electric car continues to falter next, you will also see the new posture of Ben Hu "supporting" the electric car.
There is no problem with the general direction, but the road ahead has straight and curved, and the rhythm is urgent and slow. When it is time to pinch the brakes, I will not let you step on the pedals, because I am afraid that you will not be able to get up, not to stop you from moving forward.
The proportion of PHEV in new energy has exceeded 20%
Since the beginning of last year, our column has repeatedly read several articles on the hybrid technology of its own brands, especially the new generation of hybrid technology with DHT as the core principle. As expected, DHT hybrids are making a fortune in muffled noise, and DHT-based PHEV is being revived.
In February this year, the sales of pure electric vehicles increased by 162% year-on-year, while PHEV reached 350% ;P HEV exceeded 20% for the first time in new energy, reaching the highest 22.7% in recent years. The main driver of this trend is the fierce momentum of DHT PHEV represented by BYD DM-i for a year, and the DHT of Great Wall, Geely, Chery and other brands has not yet begun to exert force.
There are still a considerable number of friends who understand hybridization as a simple "transition product". There are always network masters on the network who like to point out that hybridization is just a transition, and pure electricity is the end. Ben Hu explained this earlier this year in "The Real Trend of 2021, Not Electric Vehicles": (even if) it is a transition, but SO WHAT?
To paraphrase Keynes, we are all dead in the long run. Even if the brainless affirmation of pure electric endgame, on the road to this future, there are still tens of billions of people to eat and drink Lasa to live a life - do not confuse the future trend with current consumption. Don't get bogged down in God's perspective and get caught up in abstract grand historical narratives.
If hybrid power is "just a transition" in the long history of the automobile, then why are you and my personal decades of life not a "transition" in human history? Is it because you and I will be buried in the soil sooner or later, and it doesn't matter if the days in front of us are ready to die? "It's just a transition."
Fortunately, in addition to the capital rushing into pure electricity, there are still a considerable number of practitioners who realize the importance of "transition" in time. Under the difficult start of 2022, the maturity and application of a new generation of hybrid technology are more realistic - any business that cannot create positive cash flow as soon as possible will be a dead end in the era of credit tightening + high inflation.
From a global perspective, China's own brands have become the main force of DHT hybrid. From hybrid special internal combustion engines, to hybrid special transmission DHT, to hybrid supporting three-electric systems, the "curve overtaking" of Chinese independent car companies is truly becoming a reality in the field of hybridization - the kind that can be immediately converted into cash and performance.
BYD DM-i, Great Wall Lemon Hybrid DHT, Geely Thor Hi· X, Chery Kunpeng DHT, our column just introduced these four listed independent DHT hybrids (please jump to "Just for better mixing, DHT universe kills crazy"). Geely, one of the organizers of the "2022 International Summit Forum on Automotive Powertrains", which was directed by the China Passenger Vehicle Powertrain Professional Committee last week, introduced its DHT hybrid technology in detail.
Gilli Thor Hi · The DHT Pro version of X Hybrid is the first DHT Hybrid to have three gears, relying on dual planetary gear sets to achieve multi-position direct drive. Multiple gear-to-speed ratios allow the engine to be connected in parallel as low as 20km/h, greatly reducing the situation where the motor is driven alone at a relatively low efficiency (such as 70%).
And because the twin planetary gear set is still in the transmission path when the internal combustion engine is disconnected, Thor Hi · X's DHT Pro can also have multiple speed ratios in pure electric drive/series range extended mode, allowing power consumption levels to benefit from multiple gears and reduce them.
For HEVs whose electrical energy is completely dependent on their own, or PHEV that does not utilize the power of the grid, a more delicate oil-electricity collaboration and the "care" of the inefficient areas of the motor means a higher overall energy utilization rate. Using Thor Hi · As a compact SUV, X's Hoshigoshi L has a combined fuel consumption of only 4.3L/100km, while the A-class sedan under development can be as low as 3.6L.
The DHT Pro's multi-gear position allows the service points to be more focused on the efficiency zone
Paired with Thor Hi · The X developed the DHE15 hybrid engine, which we already know has a peak thermal efficiency of 43.32%. Geely took the opportunity of this summit forum to publish a schematic diagram of the BSFC specific fuel consumption of this engine. It can be seen that the working area with an efficiency of more than 40% covers a considerable area, the high speed direction continues to about 4500 rpm, and the high efficiency area of more than 38% almost covers the entire speed range.
The area of the efficient zone for the Geely DHE15 engine
The direct dilemma faced by gasoline vehicles is the price of oil, which is the cost of use; electric vehicles have to face the increase in the price of the whole vehicle, which is the cost of acquisition. The hybrid sandwiched between the two, because the cost of fuel use is lower, the cost of the vehicle is less affected by the three electricity, it will be possible to get more space.
If the sales of pure electric vehicles continue to be suppressed from the cost side, THE PHEVs based on DHT hybrids and high energy utilization will be a good stage supplement and become an important tool to maintain and promote the trend of electrification.
Still want to put your eggs in a basket?
The price of pure electric vehicles rises with the price of raw materials, and the impact is not only the current market sales pressure.
First of all, as Wang Ruiping, senior vice president of Geely Automobile Group and chairman of the Passenger Vehicle Powertrain Professional Committee, summarized, the price increase of raw materials will bring two direct consequences: one is the increase in the weight of hybrid power in new energy, and the other is the increase in technical considerations for pure electric vehicles.
The first point we have discussed earlier. The second point brings new challenges to the development of pure electric vehicles: how to continue to achieve performance improvements in the face of higher and higher prices of major raw materials. In the past, energy density could be increased by nickel content, and now nickel is worth one price a day; in the past, lightweight weight could rely on the use of aluminum in large quantities, and today the price of aluminum has repeatedly hit new highs.
If you look further ahead, the development and popularity of pure electric vehicles based on lithium batteries have slowed down, which also means that other new energy routes have more time and opportunities.
For example, hydrogen energy, which has received considerable attention and is regarded by many people as an ideal energy source. When the price of lithium batteries rises sharply due to the cost of raw materials, a relative advantage of hydrogen fuel cells that was not obvious is more attractive at this time: the amount of heavy metals used is small, and the difficulty of recycling is low.
The precious metal required for hydrogen fuel cells is mainly platinum. Although platinum is expensive and reserves are small, if hydrogen fuel cells are widely popularized, platinum prices are likely to rise due to increased demand. But they no longer need more expensive metals, the cost of rare raw materials is lower; platinum itself is stable in nature, is a catalyst in fuel cells, and is much less difficult to reuse than the various rare metals in recycled lithium batteries.
It is not that because of the increase in the price of electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be replaced, and the latter's original large number of practical problems still exist, and there is no absolute advantage or disadvantage between the two. But aside from the time to talk about development is to play hooligans, if the popularity of lithium battery electric vehicles, the pace of alternative fuel vehicles slows down, naturally will give hydrogen fuel cells including other new energy routes, more development windows and the possibility of maturity.
Low-carbon synthetic fuels are also an option
At least at this stage, whether it is lithium battery electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, each has a problem that is difficult to solve. When the uncertainty faced is objectively existent, then any assertion of certainty can at least be determined to be a false statement.
It is precisely because "(yet) none of them can be hit" - although lithium battery electric vehicles have gone the farthest among them, today the industry is still studying more new energy vehicle routes. In particular, the mutual utilization and mutual conversion between lithium batteries, hydrogen energy and liquid fuels combine the energy storage advantages of lithium batteries, the long endurance advantages of hydrogen, and the storage and transportation advantages of liquid fuels.
The farther future may not belong to some kind of single energy source. Our automotive energy revolution, whether it is "oil to electricity" or "oil to hydrogen" may still lack some imagination; more boldly, this can be a "single energy to composite energy" revolution.
Fortunately, at the 2022 Automotive Power Summit Forum, we see that there are still many industry experts in their posts doing incremental innovation. Even established petrochemical companies like Shell are still researching low-friction carbon-neutral lubricants; established state-owned enterprises like Hongqi are exploring the rapid substitution effect of hydrogen internal combustion engines on hydrogen energy popularization.
It is all for the sake of the energy quality change of all mankind, or there are still people doing their best to accumulate quantitative changes - rather than chasing fame and profit from afar, talking about ideals and the future. It is as if the world has changed overnight, and there is no need for ordinary people like you and me to pay any price, and no need for human beings to pay any historical risk consideration.
Some conclusions are already becoming clear. Just as in the past, human beings' destruction of the natural environment stemmed from the brainless pursuit of economic development at that time. Today's exploration of future energy, the pursuit of sustainable development, and the consideration of future generations of mankind must require you and my generation to pay a realistic price.
Of course, this price is necessary, but it must also be controlled. The pace and form of the price of sustainable development fall on us, which directly affects the real cost of life for each of you and me. The energy revolution is lithium battery photovoltaics, trillion market, NASDAQ, and it is not food, clothing, housing, eating and drinking, rice oil and salt.
The development of new energy can not run wildly blindfolded, no one wants to see the ESG that should be beneficial to all mankind, because some people blindly disregard their heads and stomachs, and directly or indirectly lead to stagnation and chaos, and finally kill themselves.