"Circle Layer" Fan Jun
Edited by Chen Ji
In daily life, electric bicycles are an important means of transportation for people to travel, and electric bicycles can be seen everywhere in the streets and alleys. At the same time, the safety of electric bicycle travel has always been the focus of people's attention.
At this year's CCTV 315 gala, electric bicycle brands Niu Electric (NIU.O), Xinri Shares (603787. SH), Green Source, Hello, Oupai, Tailing, Knife, Green Energy and many other electric bicycle dealers and manufacturers have been criticized by name for illegal modification and speed-up.
In fact, the number of electric bicycles on the mainland is large. According to the "White Paper on The Intelligence of Electric Two-wheelers", the number of electric vehicles in mainland China has exceeded 350 million, and the sales of electric vehicles in 2020 will reach 47.6 million, an increase of 23% year-on-year. At the same time, the number of electric vehicles in the mainland is still growing at a rate of 30% per year.
At present, the sales volume of electric bicycles in the mainland has increased steadily, but the current intelligent penetration rate of electric two-wheelers is low, but with the help of "double carbon" and the new national standard policy, the acceptance of superimposed consumer intelligence continues to increase, the level of intelligence in the industry is expected to gradually increase, and the trend of lithium is accelerating. At the same time, many electric bicycle companies are also crossing the border to the field of new energy vehicle manufacturing, seeking a second growth curve.
The market concentration is high
According to the relevant data of the electric vehicle network, the history of the mainland two-wheeler industry is mainly bicycles, motorcycles, electric two-wheelers, after the 21st century, the mainland electric two-wheeler industry has developed rapidly, accounting for more than 90% of global output.
China is the country with the largest number of electric bicycles in the world, and the current number of electric bicycles in the mainland has exceeded 350 million; at the same time, the annual sales of electric bicycles in the mainland have exceeded 30 million. The Deloitte report predicts that 130 million electric bicycles will be sold worldwide between 2020 and 2023.
In recent years, the scale of electric bicycles in the mainland has grown rapidly. According to public information, in 1998, the output of electric bicycles in the mainland was 55,400 units, in 1999 it was 126,000 units, in 2000 it was 276,000 units, in 2001 it rose to 580,000 units, the sales scale exceeded 1 million units since 2002, the national output reached 4 million units in 2003, the cumulative production and sales reached 7 million units, and a total of nearly 700 electric bicycle companies in the country obtained production licenses.
According to the data of CITIC Securities Research Report, from 2016 to 2020, the annual output of electric bicycles in the mainland exceeded 30 million units, and the growth rate of production and sales also showed an increase year by year, and the sales of electric vehicles in 2020 reached 47.6 million units, an increase of 23% year-on-year.
Not only that, but the number of electric vehicle-related companies is also increasing. According to enterprise investigation data, there are more than 800,000 electric vehicle-related enterprises in the mainland, of which 118,800 new electric vehicle-related enterprises will be added to the mainland in 2021, an increase of 13.87% year-on-year, which is the largest number of new electric vehicle-related enterprises in the past decade.
From the perspective of geographical distribution, Shandong Province has 100,400 electric vehicle-related enterprises, ranking first, followed by Jiangsu Province, Henan Province and other provinces, with 93,500 and 73,700 respectively. From the perspective of urban distribution, Shenzhen has 15,900 electric vehicle-related enterprises, ranking first, followed by Guangzhou, Xuzhou and other cities, with more than 12,900 electric vehicle-related enterprises.
At present, the market concentration of the electric bicycle industry is relatively high. CITIC Securities pointed out in the research report in December 2021 that between 2016 and 2020, the market share of the top four companies in the mainland electric two-wheeler industry has increased from 29% to 69%, and it is expected that the market share of the top two companies and the top four companies in the market share in 2021 is expected to reach 51% and 76% respectively.
At the same time, the standardization of the electric bicycle industry has been deepened, and the pattern has been continuously optimized. IN A research report released by CITIC Securities in March 2022, CITIC Securities said that the transition period of "new national standards" in many places will end intensively in 2022-2023, and the large replacement demand may be released intensively from 2022. In the next three years, with the increase in demand for non-national standard car replacement, it is expected that the industry space will enter the level of 60 million vehicles. Judging from Beijing, Jiangsu and Shanghai, which have reached the transition period, the law enforcement and penalties faced by violating the "new national standard" policy are significantly higher than expected.
On March 15 this year, according to the CCTV 315 evening party, a number of electric bicycle dealers and manufacturers such as Maverick Electric and Xinri Shares have problems such as production and sales non-compliance, and the electric bicycle is openly modified in violation of the law to speed up, and no matter how much the electric bicycle is driving more than 25 km / h, the speedometer only shows 25 km / h, even if the speeding is caught by the traffic police, it will not be found to have any clue. This violates the mandatory national standards of the "Electric Bicycle Safety Technical Specifications" issued by the state in April 2019, and also brings safety hazards to consumers and road pedestrians.
In this regard, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it attaches great importance to the acceleration of some brand violations exposed at the 315 evening, requiring the strict implementation of the new national standard and strengthening supervision, under the strong promotion of the relevant state departments, the implementation of the new national standard and the standardization of the industry will be further improved.
In addition, the relevant policies of Zhejiang pin code and Beijing pin code have been launched successively, and the whole chain information supervision of product information and quality has been implemented, accelerating the clearance of low-end production capacity in the industry, benefiting the head brand, and the pattern continues to be further improved.
The trend of lithium electrification and intelligence is accelerating
On the e-bike track, the participating players are mainly divided into two categories, one is the traditional two-wheeler player, such as Emma Technology (603529. SH), Yadi Holdings (01585. HK), etc.; the other is the emerging player, which is more intelligent than the traditional player, such as Maverick Electric. At present, the intelligent penetration rate of electric bicycles is low, whether it is emerging or traditional two-wheeled enterprises, they are moving in the general direction of intelligence, and the wave of electric two-wheeler intelligence is rising.
Specifically, in March 2021, Yadi Holdings released the first AI intelligent electric vehicle Guanzhi 2.0 series; in April of the same year, Aima Technology released the Air Force No. 1 A500 series of electric vehicles; in the same month, Xinri Co., Ltd. joined hands with Huawei's Huawei terminal HUAWEI HiLink Zhilian platform to launch three explosive smart models of Xinri MIKU Super, XC3 and F5; similarly, Halo Electric Vehicle launched three major models: A80 (Genie), A86 (Turing) and B80 (Magic Spirit).
The data of the "Electric Two-wheeler Intelligence White Paper" shows that electric vehicle users are gradually younger, more than 70% of users under the age of 35, have a strong interest in the Internet of Things such as smart speakers, smart door locks, etc., and the demand for intelligent electric vehicles has increased, and such users have strong economic strength, and have acceptance of electric two-wheeler prices, providing a sufficient consumer base for the intelligent development of the industry.
The intelligence of electric two-wheelers involves a number of technologies that can improve performance in all directions. Cinda Securities believes that with the further maturity of Internet of Things technology, the intelligence of electric two-wheelers will improve the performance from various technical perspectives, including vehicle positioning, near-field communication, mobile phone interconnection, cloud platform, artificial intelligence, etc. On the basis of the Internet of Things, the intelligentization of electric vehicle two-wheelers has integrated technical means such as positioning, artificial intelligence, and big data, which has increased the technicality as a whole and can provide a more efficient and safe travel experience. Electric two-wheelers have more functions after intelligence, which can further optimize the user's sense of experience, and intelligence is the development direction of electric two-wheelers in the future.
At the same time, since the official implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in April 2019, lithium electrification has become the main theme of the development of electric two-wheelers. According to the requirements of the new national standard, the weight of the vehicle is required to be no higher than 55kg. The traditional lead-acid battery is expected to increase significantly after the new national standard begins to land due to low energy density and large mass.
Public information shows that compared with traditional lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries have three major advantages: first, lightweight, with the introduction of the "new national standard" of electric bicycles, all places will introduce mandatory restriction standards for the weight of non-motorized vehicles on the road; second, environmental protection, in contrast, the production process of lithium-ion batteries is more environmentally friendly and energy-saving than lead-acid batteries, and is more supported by policies; third, the service life, at present, the life of lithium-ion batteries is generally two to three times that of lead-acid batteries, although the upfront cost is higher, but it is more economical in the long run. From an international point of view, developed countries such as Japan, Europe and the United States, lithium-ion battery electric bicycles have been popularized.
Although mainland electric bicycles are still dominated by lead-acid batteries, lithium-ion batteries are accelerating their development. According to zhiyan consulting data, the lithium battery penetration rate of electric bicycles in China increased from less than 2% in 2011 to more than 20% in 2019.
Haitong International Securities believes that with the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in the mainland and the continuous decline in the cost of lithium batteries, the penetration rate of lithium batteries in the field of electric two-wheelers will continue to increase. It is expected that by 2025, the global lithium battery penetration rate of electric bicycles will reach 45%, and the compound growth rate of lithium battery model electric bicycles in 2020-2025 will be 34.5%.
Aima Technology said in the prospectus in June last year: "With the maturity of lithium battery technology and the decline in costs, in the next few years, lithium battery electric bicycles will continue to develop, and the market share of lithium batteries in the field of electric bicycles will gradually increase." ”
Cross-border new energy vehicle manufacturing
In the field of electric bicycles, the main listed companies are Maverick Electric, Xinri Shares, Aima Technology, and Yadi Holdings. According to the financial report and prospectus data, in 2020, yadi holdings, Aima technology, Xinri shares and Maverick electric sales of 10.8 million vehicles, 7.57 million vehicles, 2.64 million vehicles and 600,000 vehicles, respectively.
According to CITIC Securities data, from the perspective of sales caliber, the market share of the top 2, top 4 and top 5 companies in the mainland's market share in 2020 has reached 47%, 69% and 76%.
AIMA Technology released the "Announcement on the Investigation of Institutional Investors" released on March 19, saying that from the perspective of the development law of the industry, under the comprehensive effect of several factors such as strict implementation of industry regulations, technology iteration, cost competition, and fierce competition for market share, the increase in industry concentration is an inevitable trend, and the market share of head enterprises will gradually increase.
However, from the performance point of view, the performance of each company is not completely consistent. Xinri shares in 2021 performance pre-reduction, Yadi Holdings, Maverick Electric both achieved performance growth, Aima Technology has not disclosed the performance of 2021.
Specifically, according to the performance forecast released by Xinri Shares on January 29, it is expected that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of listed companies in 2021 will be 6.13 million yuan to 16.34 million yuan, which will be reduced by 85.77 million yuan to 95.98 million yuan compared with the same period last year, down 84% to 94% year-on-year.
For the main reasons for the change in performance, Xinri shares said that due to the change in the pace of shared travel, the scale of the company's direct sales business has a large gap compared with the same period last year. In 2021, the market competition environment is becoming more and more fierce, in the case of no major changes in the company's production capacity and supply capacity, in order to expand the sales volume of traditional distribution channels, the company has increased resource investment in marketing, new product launch, technology research and development, channel expansion, etc., resulting in a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to the mother.
According to the positive profit forecast released by Yadi Holdings on March 1, it is expected that the performance growth rate in 2021 will not be less than 40% due to the increase in electric two-wheeler sales and the improvement of the product sales structure. In 2021, Xiaoniu Electric achieved an operating income of 3.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 226 million yuan, which also achieved a double increase.
Although Aima Technology did not announce its 2021 results, its performance grew rapidly in the first two months of this year. According to the "Announcement of Main Operating Data for January-February 2022" issued on March 19, preliminary accounting shows that from January to February 2022, the company achieved operating income of about 2.391 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 147 million yuan. From January to February 2022, operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
Aima Technology believes that the main reason for the performance growth is that in 2022, the company will continue to gather brand potential, comprehensively improve operational efficiency, overcome the impact of the epidemic in various sales areas, the overall market sales are good, the market demand for major products is strong, the volume and price are rising, and the operating performance shows an accelerated growth trend. In this regard, CITIC Securities believes that the number of offline stores of the company has increased to more than 28,000, and the rapid expansion of stores has driven overall sales growth.
From the perspective of profitability, the performance of interest rates is also uneven. Wind shows that in the first half of 2021, the gross profit margins of Maverick Electric, Yadi Holdings, Xinri Shares, and Emma Technology were 23.13%, 14.91%, 12.74%, and 11.06%, respectively; and the net profit margins were 5.79%, 4.73%, 0.54%, and 4.31%, respectively. It is not difficult to see that the gross profit margin and net profit margin of Maverick Electric are higher than those of the other three companies.
From the perspective of net profit, in the first half of 2021, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company of Yadi Holdings, Aima Technology, Xiaoniu Electric and Xinri Shares was 589 million yuan, 314 million yuan, 0.86 billion yuan and 0.12 billion yuan respectively; the leading position of Yadi Holdings and Aima Technology was remarkable.
However, CITIC Securities Securities pointed out that in the long run, due to the obvious "economy and convenience" characteristics of electric two-wheelers, they can simultaneously solve the pain points of "high cost of four-wheeled vehicles" in cities and "underdeveloped public transportation" in townships and towns, and the consumption of electric two-wheelers is rigid. In 2022, the number of head enterprises and the rise of The Qi are worth looking forward to.
At present, the competition in the electric bicycle track is becoming increasingly fierce, and various companies are seeking to break through. Aima Technology actively explores the after-sales profit model, based on rich experience in sales terminals and after-sales service, Aima Technology launched the industry's first enterprise-level service integrated platform "Ima Car Service", which integrates repair, maintenance, charging and replacement and other functions to provide consumers with high-quality and comprehensive after-sales service.
Yadi Holdings actively lays out battery manufacturing. On March 7 this year, the signing ceremony of Huayu New Energy Project invested by Yadi Holdings was held in Jieshou City, Fuyang, Anhui Province. The total investment of the project is more than 2 billion yuan, the investment project is mainly for the production of graphene batteries and new energy batteries research and development and sales, on the basis of the mass production of new graphene batteries, the follow-up will be further invested in the manufacturing and production of graphene upgraded batteries and new structural batteries.
In addition, Maverick Electric and Emma Technology have also crossed the new energy car-making track, expanding from two to four rounds. In December 2021, Jiangsu Niu Innovation Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xiaoniu Electric, officially released the English brand "NIUTRON", Chinese brand "Ziyoujia", and announced that the first product, Ziyoujia NV, will be listed and accepted for booking in the first half of 2022, and the delivery will start in September of the same year.
Immediately after Maverick Electric, in March this year, Aima Technology was also exposed to enter the field of new energy vehicles, and the first model launched, the Emma 520, has been put on sale, with a price of about 16,000-20,000 yuan / car. Unlike the medium and large range extender hybrid SUV launched by Maverick Electric, the Emma 520 is a miniature low-speed electric vehicle, mainly aimed at young people and elderly car consumers. It is understood that four-wheel low-speed electric vehicles started around 2010, and then developed rapidly, and by 2020, the number of four-wheel low-speed electric vehicles in the mainland has increased to more than 10 million.
Automotive analyst Zhang Xiang told "The Circle Layer": "Cross-border new energy vehicle manufacturing by electric bicycle companies is a new strategy for enterprises to seek innovation. Large enterprises in the electric bicycle industry, large volume, more funds, in the case of the slowdown in the growth rate of the electric bicycle industry, electric bicycle companies seek a second growth point and development, car manufacturing is the outlet, electric bicycle and this new energy vehicle, in some resources, industrial chain, ecosystem and other aspects are connected, by the electric bicycle cross-border new energy car manufacturing is relatively easy. In addition, we have seen that in recent years, Tesla, 'Wei Xiaoli' and other new forces have gained market value and stock prices have risen more sharply, and it is easier for electric bicycles to raise funds. ”
Under the background of double carbon, green travel and environmental protection travel have become the fixed trend of the times, and electric two-wheeled vehicles, as one of the important ways of short-term travel, have the characteristics of convenience and high penetration, and electric travel is an important part of new energy green travel.
The industry has accelerated its reshuffle, and the pattern has gradually become clear. The trend of young consumers of electric two-wheelers is more obvious, and the industry has ushered in new opportunities for rapid growth. Cinda Securities pointed out that from the perspective of the domestic market, "carbon neutrality" and "new national standard" give two-wheeler intelligence a solid policy foundation, the increase of young consumers for the intelligent electric bicycle to provide a huge group, in the policy and consumer two major help, electric two-wheeler intelligence has become the trend of the times.