Yadi went out to sea and was surrounded by old rivals

Text | Planet Planet, by | Tang Fei

Under the background of "carbon neutrality", the heat of new energy vehicles at home and abroad is high, and the stock prices of tesla, Weilai, ideal and other car companies have gone all the way up.

The electric two-wheeler (generally called "electric bicycle" in China) that also uses batteries as the main driving energy seems to be not so lucky, and in the year from March last year to March this year, the domestic electric two-wheeler leader Yadi Holdings, Xinri Shares, and Maverick Electric stock prices fell by 31.6%, 41.9% and 76% respectively. Aima Technology went public in June last year, and by the end of March this year, it also fell 49.3% from the highest point of the stock price, almost to the waist.

Interestingly, at this stage, the ownership and penetration rate of electric bicycles in the mainland are much higher than those of pure electric new energy vehicles.

According to the data, the number of electric bicycles in China has exceeded 350 million, which is equivalent to about one in every 4 Chinese. In addition, of china's nearly 2.8 billion trips a year, 1 billion are achieved by electric bicycles.

Coupled with the approaching transition period of the "New National Standard" in various places, the agency predicts that there will be about 100 million over-standard electric bicycles on the mainland in the next five years facing withdrawal and replacement, which is roughly estimated to be a transaction scale of more than one trillion yuan.

Under the premise of singing well in the domestic electric bicycle market, the overseas two-wheeled electric vehicle market has also ushered in an outbreak. According to statista, European escooter sales will reach 5.43 million units in 2025, and during the same period, North American espresso sales will reach about 650,000 units, and more than 80% of these cars will be imported.

The huge demand, coupled with the relatively loose overseas on-the-road regulatory policies, is undoubtedly a great benefit to all electric bicycle companies, so why is the stock price still "falling and falling"? We will take Yadi Holdings as an example to explore the opportunities and challenges of domestic electric bicycles going to sea.

01 New changes in overseas markets

In the past few years, the overseas electric bicycle market has experienced two major changes, namely, the surge in demand for electric bicycles represented by Europe and the United States and the wave of "banning motorcycles" dominated by Southeast Asia.

Europe and the United States and other regions have developed transportation infrastructure, high car ownership, consumers pay more attention to the experience of two-wheeled travel, the sensitivity to terminal prices is low, and electric bicycles with both sports and leisure attributes have become the most popular category.

Source: Soochow Securities

By definition, the electric bicycle is based on a bicycle, equipped with a power battery and a motor as an auxiliary power source, and is a short-distance vehicle that can realize human riding and motor-assisted switching.

According to statista data, the European market size was $6.534 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach $11.836 billion in 2025. The North American edcooter market was $818 million during the same period, and the North American escooter market is forecast to be approximately $1.406 billion by 2025.

Since 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has catalyzed the increase in demand for electric two-wheelers in Europe and the United States. Under the influence of the epidemic, people in Europe and the United States tend to reduce the frequency of public transportation and turn to two-wheelers as a priority short-term travel tool. According to NPD statistics, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the sales of two-wheelers in the United States have surged, with the sales of electric bicycles in June 2020 increasing by 190% year-on-year, and the sales of electric bicycles in 2020 increasing by 150% year-on-year. Coupled with the volatility of international gasoline prices since 2022, experts expect this growth trend to continue.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the demand for motorcycles is already very large. According to the data, the Asian market size is stable and accounts for 80% of the global motorcycle market. However, with the introduction of motorcycle ban and motorcycle restriction policies in recent years, "oil exchange" has also boosted electric two-wheelers to gradually replace fuel motorcycles in the Indian + Southeast Asian market.

Industry insiders said that at present, India + Southeast Asian countries electric two-wheelers are still in their infancy, with reference to the electrification process of China's motor two-wheelers, it is predicted that the market size of India + major Southeast Asian countries will reach 64.886 billion yuan after five years, and the market space is vast.

Stimulated by changes in the demand side, in recent years, mainland electric bicycle companies have actively laid out overseas markets.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output of two-wheelers in the mainland reached 102.87 million in 2019, of which 49.79 million were pedal bicycles, 36.09 million were electric two-wheelers, and 16.99 million were fuel motorcycles, of which more than half of the production was exported.

Source: Yadi

In the process of overseas expansion, Yadi has adopted a "strong channel" approach similar to that in China. On the one hand, through the endorsement + sponsorship of international superstars, the brand image is established and the mind is occupied; on the other hand, it expands the local market through active "opening stores" and product localization.

In Vietnam, for example, by the end of 2021, Yadi had a total of 306 stores in Vietnam. In 2019, Yadi built an overseas production base in Bac Giang, Vietnam, with an annual output of 200,000 units per year, and plans to increase its production capacity to 500,000 units per year within three years.

In 2020, Yadi also launched customized E3, BUYE, ULike and G5 products for the Vietnamese market, which are much lower than the average selling price of local motorcycles on the basis of guaranteed performance. Take the entry-level E3 as an example, the product uses lead-acid batteries, the top speed of 37km/h, the endurance of more than 82km, the price is only 15.99 million Vietnamese dong (about 4500 yuan), while the average price of local motorcycles is more than 6000 yuan.

In addition, Yadi has also optimized the global supply chain system, including Panasonic, Bosch, Bayer, Chimei, Delta, etc. have become Yadi's partners. And set up 2 CNAS laboratories and 5 technology research and development centers around the world, more than 500 R & D personnel, in the independent research and development of batteries, motors, electronic control and other technologies have made breakthroughs.

At the 2021 Yadi Technology Global Multiplication Strategy Summit, Yadi officially proposed the "Global Multiplication Strategy". Dong Jinggui, the founder of Yadi Holdings, said without hesitation: "In the future, Yadi will occupy at least 35% of the market, and there is one of the three worlds." ”

However, under the advocacy of global economic integration, going to the sea to find increments has become the consensus of the industry, and Yadi's ambition to divide the world is not easy to achieve.

02 The "going to sea" cake coveted by many players

According to data from The China Business Intelligence Network, China's electric bicycle production in 2019 was 36.093 million units, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year. After the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, the industry has shifted from high-speed development to high-quality development, and it is expected that the output of electric bicycles in mainland China will further increase to nearly 38.96 million units in 2021.

Although the scale of the industry is still growing, it can be calculated that the growth rate has dropped from 10% in 2019 to 4.3% in 2021.

Another data shows that there is currently about one e-bike for every 4 Chinese. The clearly visible industry ceiling inevitably makes people worry about the future of electric bicycle companies.

Domestic sales can not move, many companies will turn their attention to foreign countries.

The good news is that many countries have announced subsidies and tax incentives for the purchase of new energy electric bicycles.

In 2021, the US announced that consumers would receive a 30% tax credit for certain electric two-wheelers; the UK would stipulate that electric motorcycles would receive a 35% discount, up to a maximum of £500; and residents of Paris and its surrounding areas in France could receive up to 500 euros in financial assistance to buy e-bikes.

In Southeast Asia, based on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) signed in 2020, many countries have reduced the import and export tax rates of electric bicycles. For example, India announced in 2019 that the electric vehicle tax rate will be reduced from 12% to 5%; Indonesia will reduce the tariff on China's electric motorcycle exports by 2% in 2022. Malaysians are fully exempt from import duties on locally assembled electric vehicle components, and CBU vehicle imports are completely exempt from import duties and excise duties (only 5% sales tax).

The market is vast and the policy is favorable, including traditional brands such as Yadi, Emma, Xinri, and Tailing, and cutting-edge brands such as Maverick and No. 9, and electric bicycle companies are actively grabbing the cake of overseas markets.

At present, among the 4 listed two-wheeled electric vehicle companies, in addition to Yadi has covered 88 countries, Emma has laid out flagship stores in Europe, and the North American flagship store is also planned; while Xinri is exported to nearly 100 countries and regions through overseas agent channels; Maverick has entered 48 overseas countries and regions.

On the whole, the export market is very fragrant, but it is not easy to grab a piece of meat from the mouth of a group of "hungry wolves".

But what is certain is that at present, domestic electric bicycle products have become the only way for major enterprises to expand their development, and although this road is difficult, there is a huge wealth space behind it.

03 Where is the future of Yadi?

The research report of Zheshang Securities shows that the mainland electric two-wheeled bicycle industry has long benefited from the upgrading of "intelligent" product structure and the two major dividends of overseas blue ocean market.

As far as Yadi Holdings is concerned, its future growth logic also presents two major directions of "intelligence" and "globalization".

First, the intelligentization of travel products and the evolution of lithium battery are the main lines of development on the supply side.

Electric two-wheelers naturally have an intelligent foundation, analogous to automobiles intelligent, highly integrated electronic and electrical architecture is its foundation. At this stage, the intelligence at both ends of the motor and battery is close to popularization. At the motor end, the more optimized permanent magnet brushless motor technology is mainly used, and the mileage and starting acceleration have been significantly improved. At the battery end, lead-acid batteries (24V 7Ah) were generally used at the beginning of the development of the industry, and so far colloidal batteries, lead-acid batteries, graphene-containing batteries, lithium batteries and other technical levels have gradually improved, and the application cost has gradually decreased, providing guarantee for product endurance and power.

Source: Zheshang Securities

In addition, intelligent advanced technology also has the possibility of large-scale application, which is manifested in the intelligent integration of hardware and intelligent interaction of software on the technical side. Such as the hardware side, display, sensor, NFC and Bluetooth, etc. have a relatively low-cost application possibility; software side, mobile app, OTA, multimedia interaction system, anti-theft system, etc. have also been relatively mature.

In 2021, Yadi released Yadi Guanneng 2.0 series technologies and products. Among the newly displayed products, Yadi installed a small central control screen for the electric vehicle, and added functions such as intelligent navigation and voice control to it.

Second, the "new national standard" and consumption upgrades have brought continuous demand for replacement, coupled with the incremental space created by timely delivery businesses such as takeaway and express delivery, which is the main growth logic of the demand side.

Source: Founder Electric New

The impact of the new national standard on the industry is all-round. Since the implementation of the new national standard, due to the increase in the industry threshold, some small and medium-sized enterprises have gradually withdrawn from the market, at the same time, the national large brand owners have launched special models to further squeeze the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises.

In terms of channels, a considerable number of dealers and store practitioners have abandoned the original brand and joined the head brand, and the channel network of large brands has been more perfect in the past two years. Under such a trend, the supply side of the industry is significantly accelerated, the advantages of the head enterprises are becoming more and more obvious, the problem of product homogenization in the future will be alleviated, and the profit margin of the enterprise is also expected to increase.

At present, going to the sea to harvest new markets has become the consensus of electric bicycle brands.

In the overseas position, the opponents of Yadi Holdings and the domestic almost coincide, it is foreseeable that they will also experience a series of battles such as price wars, technology wars, brand wars, value wars, etc., but the final outcome may be similar to that of China - everyone divides and eats, their respective shares are stable, and they are at peace with each other.