Under the shadow of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the already unstable international oil price has taken an accelerated roller coaster.
On March 8, local time, the White House issued a statement saying that US President Biden officially signed an executive order prohibiting the United States from importing energy from Russia, including: prohibiting the import of Russian crude oil and certain petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and coal; prohibiting new investment in the Russian energy sector by the United States; prohibiting Americans from funding or supporting investment in energy companies in Russia.
Following in the footsteps of the United States, Europe is also increasing sanctions against Russia. Britain announced it would phase out imports of Russian oil and petroleum products by the end of the year and consider banning russian gas imports; the Eu plans to reduce the EU's dependence on Russian gas by two-thirds this year, ending its dependence on Russian fuel supplies by 2030.
Sanctions against Russia are "lose-lose"?
Biden acknowledged that while sanctioning Russia, "the United States has to pay the same price." To stabilize oil prices, the U.S. government will release 90 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves this fiscal year and increase domestic oil and gas production.
For Americans who are barely able to walk away from their private cars, cars and gas stations are necessities.
At the beginning of 2020, due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, global crude oil prices plummeted, and futures prices even turned negative.
With the lockdown policy being liberalized, the market is picking up faster than oil producers are recovering oil, and oil prices have rebounded significantly in 2021. In November 2021, the U.S. government has released 50 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the average price of ordinary grade gasoline in the United States accelerated, soaring by 79 cents in two weeks, an increase of as much as 22%.
U.S. oil prices reached $4.43 a gallon (about 3.8 liters per gallon) on March 14, up $1.54 from a year ago and a record high. According to US media statistics, the previous record is a record of $4.11 in July 2008. In the United States, gasoline prices are highest in the San Francisco Bay Area of California at $5.79 a gallon; the lowest in Tulsa, Oklahoma, also rose to $3.80 per gallon.
A growing number of governors and lawmakers have called for a moratorium on gasoline taxes to ease the burden of rising oil prices.
According to a survey by the American Automobile Association, nearly 60 percent of Americans say that the price of gasoline exceeds $4 per gallon, which will change the habit of driving. According to data released by the New York Metropolitan Transportation Agency, on March 8, the Number of Passengers on the New York Subway exceeded 3.25 million, a new single-day high in nearly three months.
Driven by rising oil prices, U.S. inflation reached a 40-year high.
According to the New York Fed's February consumer survey, the median one-year inflation forecast rose to 6 percent from 5.8 percent in January and the three-year inflation forecast rose to 3.8 percent from 3.5 percent. Consumers expect personal incomes to rise, but wage increases won't be enough to offset soaring prices, with household spending expected to grow by 6.4 percent in the coming year, the highest level since 2013, the survey data were available, the survey showed. More and more people think their finances will deteriorate in the coming year.
However, there will always be people who make money in the midst of market turmoil.
According to the US Securities and Exchange Commission documents, Berkshire Hathaway, a subsidiary of Buffett, the "god of stocks", continued to increase its position in Western oil this year, and its holdings soared from 0 to 118.3 million shares. With Western Oil shares recently up 45 percent, Buffett's holdings are worth nearly $7 billion.
Uber, which has high oil prices, has struggled
Higher oil prices have led to a high incidence of recent oil theft cases in the United States.
In the past, oil thieves would use siphon pumps to pump gasoline, but with newer models equipped with anti-rollover valves, the current oil thieves will directly drill through the fuel tank to get oil, bringing greater hidden dangers to the vehicle, and will also make the owner bear greater losses, and the repair cost of the fuel tank may exceed 1000 US dollars. The American Automobile Association reminds car owners to be alert to the smell of gasoline when approaching their cars, or to check the ground near the tank for dripping oil.
For practitioners who rely on cars to eat, the impact of rising oil prices is greater and more direct.
Ride-hailing drivers have become a large and flexible employment group in society. If the price of oil rises too high, the net income of drivers will be reduced, and some people will abandon the use of online ride-hailing platforms. In addition, unlike domestic and foreign sales of small brothers riding electric vehicles through the city, in the sparsely populated Us market, most of the delivery workers are driving delivery.
In order to retain drivers and delivery workers, the platform had to adjust its strategy.
Uber announced that due to the high cost of getting on the road, from March 16, local time, the company's ride-hailing services will increase temporary fuel surcharges. Specifically, passengers will be charged an additional $0.45 to $0.55 per Uber ride; users who choose Uber Eats to deliver takeaway will be charged an additional $0.35 to $0.45, depending on the location.
Uber said the full surcharge will be paid directly to the driver. For now, the measure is tentatively scheduled for two months, and Uber will continue to monitor gasoline prices and make adjustments at any time.
On March 15, Lyft announced that it will soon charge customers a fuel surcharge to alleviate the difficulties caused by high oil prices for drivers, and the specific details need to be improved.
On March 16, U.S. food delivery platform DoorDash announced that it would introduce subsidies for drivers in response to rising oil prices, but would not transfer costs to users.
DoorDash will provide drivers with a debit card called Dasher Direct, which Dasher Direct promises to cash back 10% if the driver refuels with that card. DoorDash also offers a weekly gas subsidy for drivers with frequent deliveries: drivers who drive a total of 100 miles a week can get $5; up to 175 miles get $10; up to 225 miles get $15.
The cash subsidy will last at least until April.
Rising fuel costs will also have a significant impact on the air transport industry. Because U.S. airlines have not responded to rising fuel prices in response to fuel hedging measures as European carriers have done, it is often necessary to seek to offset fuel costs by raising fares. Delta expects to raise one-way fares by about 10 percent in the second quarter to cover fuel costs.
According to Reuters, a number of U.S. airlines said that as economic activity resumed, air travel demand rebounded sharply and is expected to remain strong this year, which will help them offset the sharp increase in fuel costs through high fares. The current fare increase has not affected passengers' willingness to travel. Delta air lines say ticket sales have recently been the highest in history, and Delta CEO Bastian even said: "I have never seen such strong demand in my career." American Airlines CEO Parker said: "We can make a profit when oil prices are $100 a barrel or more." ”
In addition, although the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the closure of a large area of airspace, it has basically affected the Eurasian route and has less impact on North American airlines. Several airlines expect first-quarter revenue to be on the upper edge of or several percentage points above the previous guidance range.
The good news has led to a strong recent performance of U.S. airline stocks. On March 15, Delta Air Lines and United Continental Airlines rose more than 9%, and American Airlines and Southwest Airlines rose more than 8%.
Rising oil prices Tesla can not hold?
Uber said in a statement: "In the long run, we believe that the key to reducing the impact of gasoline prices on drivers' revenues is to shift to electric vehicles." ”
For a long time, with the low oil prices in the US market, the American people did not have a personal feeling about energy conservation and emission reduction. Coupled with the pricing of electric vehicles of the same grade higher than that of fuel vehicles, the public still prefers high-power pickup trucks and SUVs in terms of car purchase tendencies.
Previously, US President Biden proposed a goal that half of new CAR sales in the United States in 2030 will be electric vehicles. In November 2021, the U.S. Congress passed a federal infrastructure plan that will invest $7.5 billion to add 500,000 charging stations to the national network. Around the same time, six major automakers, including Ford and General Motors, have pledged to stop selling new gasoline and diesel cars by 2040.
In 2017, about 115,000 pure electric vehicles were sold in the United States. According to Bloomberg, U.S. electric vehicle sales have tripled in 2021, with a total of 657,000 units sold. Still, electric vehicles account for less than 4 percent of new car sales.
With the rise in oil prices and the increase in the cost of maintaining gasoline vehicles, new energy vehicles have become more and more recognized by American consumers.
Take a medium-sized gasoline car as an example, the average gasoline price exceeds $4 per gallon, and the cost of each refueling will exceed $55; if the electric vehicle of the same level is fully charged, the cost of using a public fast charging pile is 20-45 US dollars, and the cost of charging at home is only 16 US dollars.
According to the Pew Research Center, a quarter of Americans say it is "possible" to choose an electric car when they buy a car next time.
U.S. automakers are also adapting to consumer preferences and launching a variety of models. The Ford F-150 Lightning electric pickup, which starts at $40,000, has received 200,000 orders in the U.S. market.
In January 2022, 50,000 electric vehicles were sold in the US market, and Tesla occupied an absolute leading position, with its Model Y ranking first with 18,549 sales, and model 3 and Model S ranking second and third respectively.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also affected the supply chain of new energy vehicles.
Nickel is the upstream key raw material for electric vehicle power battery manufacturing, and is used in the manufacture of ternary cathode materials in power batteries. On March 8, nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange soared 67.2% in one day, climbing to a record 101365 US dollars / ton. Industry insiders estimate that the average input cost of manufacturing each electric vehicle at this price will increase by $1,000.
Recently, Musk complained on Twitter that Tesla and SpaceX are facing severe inflationary pressures in terms of raw materials and logistics.
As demand grows and supply cries out, pressure will naturally shift to consumers in the form of price increases. On March 15, Tesla silently raised its price, and the price of the basic and high-performance versions of the Model S in the US market rose by $5,000; the Model X rose by $10,000.
But oil prices won't keep going higher. As the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine dawned, new York oil prices and Brent oil prices fell by 22.04 percent and 21.93 percent, respectively, in a single week after peaking on March 8.
Analysts generally believe that the length of time of the high oil price shock will depend on the duration of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Only by achieving peace can normalcy be restored.