On the one hand, the shortage of supply caused by the lack of cores, on the other hand, the consumer wail behind the oil price. The sudden turnaround of new energy vehicles in the second-hand market has indeed shocked a wave of car owners.
From everyone avoiding it to the second-hand car market, new energy vehicles have only taken a year. According to CCTV news reports, the price of new energy vehicles in the second-hand market has risen slightly recently, and some models have even risen by 5,000 to 10,000 yuan, at the same time, the inventory turnover of new energy second-hand cars has also improved.
It is reported that in the past, the turnover rate of new energy second-hand cars was often more than 30 days, and now it can basically be sold within a month. In addition, data from the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that in the first two months of this year, the retail sales of new energy vehicles and new vehicles rose by 137.5% and 180.5% year-on-year, respectively, and the number of units was as high as 352,000 units and 272,000 units.
Used car trading volume increased by 3.71% and 12.71% year-on-year to 1.4846 million units and 1.0768 million units. From the perspective of retention rate, the retention rate of new energy vehicles increased significantly in January this year, and the three-year age retention rate of plug-in hybrid models and electric models increased to 61.5% and 49.5% respectively.
But does the second-hand market really welcome new energy vehicles? When the oil price cools down again and the battery life problem returns, I am afraid that the electric car is only briefly loved.
Used trams only this one "Tesla"?
Walking through several major domestic second-hand car markets, it is not difficult to find that the new energy automobile circle has a stubborn chain of contempt: even if the domestic Wei Xiaoli plus Wuling Hongguang, BYD and other car companies have been mixed in the international tram market, but there is still only one "Tesla" in the eyes of the domestic second-hand industry.
It is undeniable that in terms of retention rate, Tesla is indeed riding the dust. A few years ago, when new energy vehicles were not as hot as in the past two years, some second-hand car dealers even only accepted Tesla, at that time, Tesla supported the second-hand world of pure trams. The "2019 China Automobile Retention Rate Report" shows that the 1-year retention rate of Tesla Model X reached 67.46%, the 2-year retention rate reached 57.22%, and the 3-year retention rate reached 49.21%.
In contrast, the BMW i3 has only a 33% retention rate, and the BYD Qin EV and e5 electric vehicles are less than 30%. The three-year retention rate of the entire new energy vehicle is basically no more than 40%. But is there only one "Tesla" in the second-hand market? Or can Tesla really "thrive" forever in the second-hand market? Today, it seems, this is not necessarily the case.
After two years, Tesla has clearly not maintained its second-hand myth.
For example, the "Research Report on China's Automobile Retention Rate in the First Half of 2021" shows that in the list of 1-year retention rate of pure electric vehicles, Porsche Taycan ranked first in the list, with a 1-year retention rate of 90.39%. As for the two-year retention rate ranking, the highest retention rate of pure electric vehicles is still Tesla Model 3, but the highest retention rate of oil-electric hybrids is Toyota Alpha.
More notably, the "2021Q1 Used Car Big Data" shows that in the transaction volume ranking of new energy used cars, BYD, Roewe and BAIC New Energy ranked in the top three in the transaction volume of new energy used car brands, followed by Toyota and Tesla ranked fourth. What exactly made Tesla suddenly lose its advantage in the second-hand market? There may be many reasons, but it is interesting that Tesla is more like a weather vane in the new energy secondary market, and the confinement it faces is always binding the entire tram circle.
It is true that a "Rashomon" brake incident once damaged a lot of Tesla's passers-by, but in the final analysis, Tesla's depreciation is inseparable from its price adjustment at every turn. Since the localization in 2020, Tesla has frequently reduced prices in the domestic market, and the widely circulated self-deprecating sentence "You never know which one will come first with Tesla price reduction tomorrow", pulling off Tesla's value preservation face.
Taking Model 3 as an example, according to the survey, from October 2019 to October 2020, in just one year, the number of price reductions of the Model 3 was as high as 5 times, and the price continued to fall off a cliff, from the initial 355,000 to 249,900, a depreciation of up to one-third. According to incomplete statistics, since Tesla entered the Chinese market, up to now, the number of price adjustments has accumulated more than 60 times.
The pricing of electric vehicles is a metaphysics, and there is no doubt about it. Entering 2022, the reason why new energy vehicles suddenly "rise" in the second-hand market is not necessarily due to the market favorable and consumer environment, but the tide of new car price increases is unstoppable, and the price of second-hand cars naturally rises with the water. According to CCTV financial reports, since March, nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases, involving nearly 40 models, with a price increase of as little as 1,000 yuan and as much as tens of thousands of yuan.
Continuous price increases are obviously not a good thing, after all, whether it is in the new car market or the second-hand market, electric vehicle consumer groups are extremely sensitive to prices. As Autocarweekly statistics show that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in models below 50,000 reached 78.1%, and it is not unreasonable for Wuling Hongguang to kill Tesla, xiaopeng announced the price increase on the day, the stock price once fell by more than 5%, closing down 4.46%.
In addition, the clichéd battery problem is the key crux of the new energy vehicle can not play the second-hand market, some automotive media have calculated an account, the power battery attenuation to 80% of the new battery state, will lose the significance of continuing to act as a new energy vehicle power battery. In order to extend the service life of the battery, many car companies have made frequent moves.
Taking Tesla as an example, Tesla has been complained about many times because of "locking the electricity", the most sensational one in Norway, Tesla was sentenced to pay $16,000 per person to the owner of the complaint. The price of new energy vehicles continues to rise, but unfortunately, there is no tram "evergreen" in the second-hand market.
The second-hand market cannot tolerate the "big Buddha" of new energy
Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the retention rate of new energy vehicles is not worth mentioning, and the three-year retention rate of most fuel vehicles can be between 60% and 70%, but the retention rate of second-hand electric vehicles with the same number of kilometers is generally below 50%. After the beginning of the year, the price of second-hand electric vehicles has increased layer by layer, which is an undeniable fact, but as far as the current situation is concerned, it is still very difficult for electric vehicles to open the second-hand market.
Many second-hand car dealers can even look at the new energy vehicles of the fire from a distance and dare not play with them. In 2020, the trading volume of new energy used cars was 47,464 units, accounting for only 0.35% of total sales, with a low residual value rate, a long inventory cycle, and a difficult turnover... Almost every problem is like a mountain running between trams and second-hand markets.
Not to mention the short replacement cycle of trams will be its use rate nakedly exposed to consumers, daily car auction data show that the replacement cycle of new energy vehicles is far shorter than fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles less than 3 years of age accounted for 43% of the transaction, fuel vehicles less than 3 years of age accounted for only 10%; more than 8 years of new energy vehicles accounted for 2%, more than 8 years of fuel vehicle transactions accounted for 42%. Such a rapid replacement frequency makes many car owners discouraged from a green card in the second-hand car market.
Whether a used tram can be sold smoothly has obviously become an embarrassing question that silences the entire used car market collectively.
What is more worrying is that the development of the mainland used car industry is tepid. In other words, the industry's self-care state does not have enough tolerance to accept too many used cars, it is reported that the average gross profit of the general best-selling used cars is 6%, the net profit is 3%, the cycle is 30 days, according to the data of the used car management system, the average gross profit margin of the used car with an average price of about 150,000 is 5%, and the two years are still declining.
Used trams, which depreciate at a rate that contrast sharply with the inventory cycle, are more of an industry burden. Coincidentally, used trams are not only disliked in the domestic market, but even the more mature US market in the used car industry is also not too enthusiastic about new energy vehicles.
According to a survey of used car dealerships in nine U.S. states by the American environmental organization Sierra Club, car buyers found that dealers in other states did not recommend electric vehicles much except in California. 42% of electric vehicles are left unattended in stores. In 2017, Nature conducted an anonymous survey of 5 used car dealers in Europe, most of which had no interest in electric vehicles.
As a result, used trams around the world seem to be in a slump.
But the scene of cold silence is not without a little turnaround, the market turnaround of second-hand trams is those countries where the power of car manufacturing has declined, such as Norway, Ukraine, Canada and New Zealand are the main inflow countries of new energy used cars, taking Norway as an example, as early as 2018, Norway's pure electric vehicle sales were 46,000, and the sales of second-hand electric vehicles were nearly 12,000, accounting for 21%, while the proportion in 2017 was even higher.
According to the "Guidelines for the Export of Used Cars", as of June 2021, China's second-hand passenger car exports of 5842 vehicles, of which the export of used new energy passenger cars accounted for 43.67%, accounting for nearly half. Domestic survival is particularly difficult, and there is no choice but to go overseas to find a glimmer of life.
When new energy vehicle companies are eyeing the "second-hand car" business
Although the popularity of used trams in the market is difficult to say, the opportunity for used trams is close at a time when the production of new cars is delayed. In addition, oil prices and consumption remain high, industry research institute AutoPacific 2019 survey data show that only 3% of U.S. car owners at that time expressed interest in buying an electric car when changing cars, and three years later, in January 2022, this proportion instantly increased to 10%.
But there are not many existing cars on the market, the data shows that the new car inventory in the United States is 60% less than a year ago, only 1.1 million, while the inventory of electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles is only 25,000 in total, and used trams may slowly rise from the trough in 2022. Among them, the transaction volume of hybrid used cars increased by 85%, and the growth of pure electric used cars was even more rapid, with an increase of 191%.
However, when the sales growth rate rises, and there are still many loopholes in the flow of trams into the second-hand market, the brand image of second-hand cars and car companies is also difficult to give up, and once there is a leak, the impact of anti-phagocytosis is inevitable. Therefore, more and more car companies plan to take this business into their own hands, and it is a foregone conclusion that new energy vehicle companies are eyeing second-hand business.
According to statistics, Weilai, WM and other car companies have launched their own second-hand car business; Tesla has also added second-hand car distribution business within the scope of the changed company; Xiaopeng Automobile has announced the launch of an official second-hand car platform; BAIC New Energy has proposed replacement business... It is not difficult to see that the retention rate of second-hand trams makes the entire new energy circle grumpy, and even in the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", the retention rate of trams has also been repeatedly mentioned.
But can the entry of car companies fundamentally solve the second-hand anxiety of new energy vehicles?
Tesla has been involved in a negative dispute over the quality of the second-hand, on December 4, 2020, Tesla sold a Model S used car, concealed the fact that the vehicle had been cut, but only told the used car user that "there is no structural damage to the vehicle". In the end, the court ruled in the first instance that Tesla would refund 379,700 yuan to the owner of the second-hand car and compensate 3 times the purchase price of 1.1391 million yuan.
Although the car companies are sitting at home, although they can alleviate the shrinking retention rate to a certain extent, the entrenched interest rules of the second-hand market obviously cannot be disintegrated for a while and a half. Perhaps while cleaning up the source, cleaning up the evaluation system of second-hand cars in circulation, and improving the health of the battery, in order to make the scene out of the freezing point.
In July last year, the China Automobile Circulation Association issued the "Technical Specifications for the Identification and Evaluation of Used Cars for Electric Passenger Vehicles", and in September, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Management Measures for the Utilization of New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Ladders", which is interesting that the use of battery ladders did not directly benefit car companies and power batteries, but once gave birth to the charging pile industry.
According to incomplete statistics, as of 2020, there are as many as 89,000 domestic enterprises related to "charging piles". By the end of 2021, the scale of charging facilities nationwide will reach 2.617 million units, and there will be 1,298 substations, which can serve nearly 8 million new energy vehicles.
According to Wind data, new energy vehicles, power batteries, and lithium ore plate themes fell by 4.68%, 1.72% and 7.05% respectively compared with the previous week. The shortage of raw materials continues, the price of new cars is rising, and the prices of used cars are also rising, but the capital market seems to have lost patience.
The Tao is always reasonable, and has used the name Crooked Dao, the Internet and the new media in the science and technology circle. The WeChat public account of the same name: Dao always has a reason (daotmt). This article is an original article, and any form of reproduction without retaining the author's relevant information is not retained.