Since the outbreak of the "black swan event" in 2020, the global economy has ushered in sharp fluctuations. Commodity prices surged in 2021 as a result of supply chain disruptions, coupled with rising prices of water, food and energy raw materials released by the Fed.
One by one, the tensions sparked by the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine have once again triggered global shocks, seriously affecting the five major industrial chains.
Recently, many people have found that the prices of many products, such as grain, fertilizer, feed and oil, are rising, which is closely related to the lives of farmers. Let's take a look!

1. Food prices have risen sharply
Recently, due to the situation in Ukraine and Russia, international food prices have also ushered in a wave of increases. In particular, the price of corn and wheat has set off a wave of rise, and wheat has directly risen and stopped, hitting a new high in more than nine years. Food prices have also reached their highest level in 10 years as a result of rising food prices.
Even if the conflict ends quickly, its impact will remain significant. According to expert analysis, food prices will rise in the next 5-10 years.
As the basis of human survival, every country attaches special importance to food. Today, food has also become a weapon of trade and a tool for harvesting the wealth of other countries. To that end, all countries are now increasing their reserves to prevent threats to food.
As food exporters, Russia and Ukraine account for 30% of world wheat exports, and Ukraine is the largest exporter of sunflower oil and the third largest exporter of corn.
Now, Ukraine has suspended port shipping, and Russia has stopped high-speed shipping in Asia. The international community believes that this move will continue to push up food prices.
At present, China's wheat and corn prices have ushered in a wave of sharp rises. In recent days, the increase has been relatively large. Wheat has risen by more than 1.5 yuan in a row, and corn has also risen by more than 1.35 yuan.
2. Fertilizer rises
It's early March. As the temperature rises, farmers are about to enter the spring plowing stage. At that time, China will also usher in the peak season of spring fertilizer demand.
However, many farmers have found that fertilizer prices have risen sharply recently. For example, Lao Wang, the owner of an agricultural materials selling point in Bengbu, said that the current purchase price of urea has risen to 137-138 yuan a bag, and the market price is 145 yuan, but many farmers do not want to buy it because the price is too expensive. Lao Wang said that if he sold it for 140 yuan, he would not make money, including loading and unloading fees and freight.
The price of compound fertilizer is also rising. At present, the price has risen to 170-180 yuan a bag, an increase of about 50 yuan over previous years.
Lao Wang said farmers' purchase plans were delayed due to high fertilizer prices, which made his business seem deserted.
An old farmer said that the price of fertilizer has risen sharply. The cost of fertilizer per mu of land needs to increase by 50-80 yuan. Coupled with the rising cost of diesel, pesticides and other costs, he did not make much money at all.
In fact, the rise in fertilizer prices has a lot to do with the recent situation in Russia and Ukraine. We should know that Russia is a big producer and exporter of fertilizers, and the export volume of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers ranks in the top three, which has a great impact on the international fertilizer market.
Egyptian urea has reportedly risen fivefold in a short period of time due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. In Europe, which relies on Russian gas imports, fertilizer prices have also risen as gas prices have soared. Among them, the price of urea has risen to 700 US dollars / ton, an increase of 25% over the pre-conflict period.
Europe's nitrogen gap is 7 million tonnes, and countries' nitrogen fertilizers are soaring. Many farmers have considered growing soybeans, so they don't need to apply too much fertilizer.
China is self-sufficient in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, but it is highly dependent on potassium fertilizers. However, China has also signed import contracts with Canada, which has little impact on the whole.
Fertilizer will continue to rise
3. Feed rises
Feed prices have been rising ever since. Prices of water feed, chicken feed, egg feed and pig feed have risen. Among them, aquatic feed increased by 600 yuan / ton, and other feed increased by 50-200 yuan / ton.
As for the reason for the rise in feed prices, it is also due to the soaring price of soybean meal. In previous years, the mainstream price of soybean meal was 2800 yuan / ton, but after a few years, the price of soybean meal rose to more than 4000 yuan / ton. Today, 43% of the price of soybean meal has risen to 4700-4900 yuan / ton, the highest price since 2012.
At the same time, the price of corn also began to rise, and the average price of corn for feed reached about 1.35 yuan / kg, which once again pushed up the price of feed. Recently, Zhengbang, New Hope, and Onong once again announced feed price increases, with two rounds of cumulative price increases of 600 yuan / ton. Due to the high price of soybean meal and corn, the procurement pressure of many feed mills has increased, the progress of feed production has also been affected, and some feed enterprises have been temporarily suspended.
However, it is predicted that global food prices will continue to rise due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, coupled with the intensification of drought in South America and the reduction of soybean production, so feed will continue to rise in the future.
4. Oil and gas prices rise
Recently, international oil and gas prices have begun to rise sharply due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Among them, brent crude oil prices rose to $100.04 a barrel, a seven-year high. Affected by the international, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose by 100 yuan / ton, which will not only increase the cost of travel for everyone, but also increase the cost of farming machinery, which is not good for farmers.
In addition to oil prices, the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also rising sharply. The total amount of domestic LNG is on the rise. The purchase price of a power plant in Hunan has risen to more than 10,000 yuan per ton, and Zaozhuang Snow Energy and Rizhao Steel have also risen to 9,300 yuan per ton.
As a major exporter of oil and gas, Russia has a direct impact on international oil and gas prices. Oil and gas are expected to continue to grow in the future. At that time, China will also be affected, and the cost of agricultural machinery farming and fertilizer production will increase.