Ukraine-Russia Crisis: Can Ukraine Hold Out?

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A Russian tank drove along the streets of Donetsk.

How difficult will it be for Ukraine to defend itself with Russia already on a massive offensive? Overall, Ukraine is at a disadvantage in both military power and numbers, especially as Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously invested heavily in and modernized Russia's armed forces.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute said: "I think Ukrainians are in a very difficult situation. Having just returned from Ukraine, he said the country's military leaders now face some "very difficult choices."

Western officials estimate that Russia has as many as 190,000 troops stationed near the Ukrainian border, far more than Ukraine's entire 125,600 regular troops.

Russian troops have crossed the border from multiple directions.

Ukraine will find it difficult to defend thousands of miles of borders from Belarus in the north all the way to Crimea in the south. If you think of Ukraine as a clock surface, the Russians can attack from 10 to 7 o'clock.

Russia's dominance in the air

The real gap between the Russian and Ukrainian militaries lies in the sky.

Watlin said there are 105 fighter jets on the Ukrainian border, compared with 300 in Russia. He predicted that the Russians "will soon gain air superiority."

Russia has advanced air defense systems, such as the S-400 missile, which also gives its military an advantage. In contrast, Ukraine's air defense systems are old and limited.

Watlin gave an example of Israel being able to defend itself from multiple directions. He added that Israel was able to do this because of the country's air superiority, which Ukraine simply does not have.

Bin Barry said Moscow has developed its own version of Deterrence and Intimidation, which includes a combination of air, missiles and long-range rocket launchers.

It allowed the Russians to attack Ukraine's command and control centers, ammunition depots, air force and air defense systems from a great distance.

Such strikes appear to have already begun as cruise missiles hit targets near the capital Kiev.

Watlin said Russia has a large number of modern weapons and capabilities that Ukraine cannot cope with, such as the Iskander cruise missile and ballistic missile system.

Ukraine has recently received armed aid from the United States and the United Kingdom, but most of this assistance has been short-range air-to-air missiles and anti-tank weapons. In short, Russia surpassed Ukraine in firepower.

With Russian air superiority and long-range weapons, the danger to the Ukrainian army is that they will soon be pinned down.

Watlin believes the Ukrainian military may not be able to move and adjust position skillfully in response to Russia's advance from any other direction.

Satellite images provided by Maxar Technologies show tents and residential areas of Russian troops.

Many of Ukraine's well-trained and well-equipped troops are in the east of the country, close to the Lines of Control in Luhansk and Donetsk. Government forces and separatist forces have been fighting there since 2014.

Western intelligence officials told the BBC that Russia might try to encircle Ukrainian troops, which was very worrying.

However, the Ukrainian armed forces are better trained and equipped than they were when Russia invaded Crimea.

The Russian military has mobile rockets, missile launchers and air defense systems and is able to move quickly. It has also been on the battlefield since its involvement in the annexation of Crimea and Syria.

Battles in the city

If the fighting unfolds in Ukrainian towns, then this may give the Ukrainian army a chance.

Well-prepared defenders can make city battles difficult and bloody against attackers — like Stalingrad in World War II and more recently in Mosul, Iraq.

Ben Barry believes that the Russians may initially try to bypass the town. But he believes russia is unlikely to avoid urban fighting, especially given Kiev's political importance.

In the Donetsk region, a woman clears a destroyed house after shelling.

Watlin said that if the Ukrainians can properly hold their cities, then they may be able to hold out for quite some time.

Light anti-tank weapons supplied by the Uk , also known as THE LAW ) could help with close combat, with Ukrainian troops taking advantage of the cover of buildings to move around. An unknown number of civilians may also take up arms.

Russia cannot rely solely on air strikes and artillery fire to control towns.

Ukraine is now fighting for survival.

Ukraine has been fighting Russian-backed troops in the eastern region for the past eight years, but now the country is at a point of life and death.

Watlin, who has just visited Ukraine, said that "as a country, [Ukrainians] have a strong determination to survive, but people recognize that they are at a disadvantage and the war will be extremely bloody."