Nickel price fluctuations will continue to trigger the price increase of new energy vehicles The cost of car companies is under pressure

Nickel (Ni) price fluctuations will continue to trigger new energy vehicle price increases Car companies are under pressure at costs. Car companies adjust the "circuit" response

Text/Photo/Table Guangzhou Daily All-media reporter: Deng Li

Tesla prices rose twice in a week, AND announced another price increase on March 16... The source of this round of price increases points to "the continuous sharp rise in raw material prices". Although car companies have worked hard to reduce the manufacturing cost of new energy vehicles in recent years and make the terminal price keep up with fuel vehicles, the price increase of raw materials in recent years has caused resistance to cost reduction.

The reporter noted that among the raw materials of power batteries, the pressure of "nickel" has increased sharply in recent days. Nickel is an important raw material for ternary lithium batteries used in many new energy models. Industry insiders said that the price of car companies will continue to come; some car companies have begun to change the technical route: in the low-end models, the use of low energy density, cheaper, but do not need nickel lithium iron phosphate batteries.

The price of nickel moved, and the "body price" of the battery rose

How important is nickel to new energy vehicles? Zhu Yulong, a senior electronic engineer, said that in power batteries, nickel plays an important role in the energy density of batteries, which can effectively improve the endurance of electric vehicles. It is reported that the high nickel ternary is an important technical path to drive the mileage of new energy vehicles to generally increase to more than 600km. For example, high-nickel ternary has always been the dominant product of the Ningde era, and is being supplied to Tesla, Xiaopeng, Weilai and many other new energy vehicle companies.

The reporter noted that as many car companies focus on the layout of high-end new energy models, long mileage is becoming the key to measuring their value. At present, in the upstream materials of ternary lithium batteries, nickel accounts for nearly 30% of the total cost, and high-nickel and ultra-high nickel batteries account for a higher proportion. Domestic leading battery factories are inevitably "involved" in the nickel war, including Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy and so on. The China Automobile Association predicts that in 2025, the penetration rate of ternary high nickel in domestic power batteries will reach 62%, the compound annual growth rate will reach 95%, the penetration rate in global power batteries will reach 66%, and the compound annual growth rate in the next 5 years will reach 90%.

Yang Yanxia, director of the marketing department of Huayou Cobalt New Material Industry Group, said that although the largest downstream application area of nickel is still stainless steel, the largest increase comes from the field of lithium batteries. Driven by the demand for new energy vehicles, the proportion of nickel in the field of lithium batteries continues to increase, which is about 3.5% in 2015, 16.1% in 2021, and is expected to rise to about 21.5% in 2022, and before 2030, the nickel demand for electric vehicles will account for 59% of the entire nickel supply.

It is not difficult to see that the fluctuation of nickel prices has a great impact on new energy vehicles. "According to the calculation, each ton of nickel rose by 100,000 yuan to the battery factory with 50 kWh of electricity costs, at least three or four thousand yuan or more, high-end models of bicycle costs rose more." A battery material industry insider told reporters that the nickel price is highly correlated with the price of cathode materials for ternary lithium batteries. Energy research firm Rystad Energy has even warned that by 2024, demand for high-grade nickel for electric vehicle batteries worldwide could outstrip supply. The reporter noted that as of the closing period of the LME (London Metal Exchange) on March 7, the price of nickel soared, the largest increase in the history of futures contracts in 35 years.

Market: Consumers are generally receptive to car price increases

The lack of nickel in power batteries is affecting the price of new energy vehicles. According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng, BYD, GAC Aean, Euler, Volkswagen, Zero Run, Extreme Kr, Ford, WM and other brands of new energy models have announced price increases, including most of the mainstream new energy models in the market.

In the terminal market, Xiao Liu, a salesman for new energy vehicles, told reporters: "Since the beginning of this year, the prices of new energy have risen, and we calculated that the price increase of peer models is between 1% and 10%. It seems that most consumers are accepting this reality. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, also believes that these factors will not have a significant impact on the sales of new energy vehicles, "from January and February, the year-on-year increase in sales of new energy vehicles has reached a level of about 150%. At present, consumers are acceptable for price increases. "He said that the price increase of raw materials for new energy vehicles is a cyclical phenomenon, and the current increase in vehicle prices is a reflection of the increase in raw material prices." This year's new energy vehicle market is in good shape, and there will be car companies that announce price increases next. "However, with the recovery of the supply environment at the raw material industry, the unfavorable factors of price increases will be alleviated to a certain extent." ”

Car companies: There are new energy vehicles sold a loss of more than 10,000 yuan

The rise in raw materials is bringing greater pressure on new energy vehicle companies to manufacture costs. "We have done the cost sharing to the extreme, but the price of raw materials continues to rise, coupled with the 30% reduction in the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2022, by 2023, Euler black cat and white cat will lose nearly 17,000 yuan per car sold." Dong Yudong, CEO of the Euler brand, recently said that due to "serious losses", some models of Euler have stopped receiving orders. What he said is also the voice of many new energy vehicle companies at present: selling new energy vehicles is far from the time to make money.

Ge Yuan, investment director of Oreh Fund, said that new energy vehicles rely more on materials such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and silicon-based chips than fuel vehicles, and various raw materials from batteries to vehicle parts are the key to restricting the manufacturing costs of new energy vehicles. Take lithium carbonate, the core raw material of power batteries, as an example. According to business data, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in East China reached 496,000 yuan / ton on March 15. At the end of December 2020, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in East China was only 54,600 yuan / ton. In less than a year and a half, the price of lithium carbonate has increased 8-fold. At the same time, the east China market price of cobalt rose from less than 300,000 yuan / ton in early 2021 to 566,700 yuan / ton on March 15. The separators, positive and negative electrode materials, electrolytes, etc. involved in other power batteries have different amplitudes of price increases.

Impact: New energy vehicle companies usher in the "year of differentiation and elimination"

For the popularization of new energy vehicles, an important condition is to reduce the price. With the reduction of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the increase in the price of raw materials, and the introduction of exclusive insurance types, the price of new energy vehicles is likely not to be as "friendly" as in the past. The reporter noted that in order to reduce the cost of batteries, some car companies have chosen to use a low-energy density and cheaper lithium iron phosphate battery on low-end models, which uses iron phosphate and does not require nickel or cobalt. For example, Tesla has selected lithium iron phosphate batteries on the Model 3 entry model, and after the nickel price increase, the price increase does not involve its entry model. According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Alliance, the cumulative installed market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2021 is 51.68%, surpassing ternary lithium batteries.

So, will the rise in nickel prices affect the technical route prospects of lithium batteries? Mo Ke, chief analyst of true lithium research, believes that "it will not", "high nickel ternary or direction, because the disadvantage of the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is difficult to improve." "Before there was no breakthrough in battery technology, ternary lithium batteries were difficult to shake because of their high energy density. With the advancement of technology, the possibility of further reducing the cost of ternary lithium batteries is not ruled out. The research report of Cinda Securities shows that from the perspective of specific capacity, high-nickel ternary materials have an advantage of about 30% over low-nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate, even if ITD's "blade battery", the energy density is only 80% of the current mainstream ternary lithium battery.

Industry insiders believe that in the medium and long term, the nickel incident will guide more capital in the layout of the energy metal mining industry. Cui Dongshu pointed out that the cyclical fluctuations in raw material prices are testing the viability of new energy vehicles, the market needs enterprises that can really make money, and the differentiation and elimination of mergers will be the theme of new energy vehicle companies in 2022.

(Guangzhou Daily)