Wei Xiaoli continued to fall sharply in Hong Kong stocks today (March 15), with another decline of more than 10%.
This is also the second consecutive day of Wei Xiaoli's sharp decline after suffering "Black Monday" yesterday.
The most tragic of these is Xiaopeng, when it went public in Hong Kong last July, its market value once rushed to 280 billion yuan, and now there are less than 130 billion yuan left, a veritable waist cut.
At the same time, their stock prices in the U.S. stock market also continued to avalanche, with Only $16 left in Weilai, and Xiaopeng and Ideal only $22, both less than half of their heyday.
After entering 2022, these three new front-line car-making forces seem to have been "Bengbu" and began to fall all the way, and now they have reached the edge of danger. Some people say that this is the ICU "two into the palace" after the tight capital chain of the three companies in 2019, and it may really be doomed if it is not careful.
What the hell is going on? Why are the new forces so embarrassed? Are there any other deeper reasons besides the general trend? And let the kung fu car take everyone to see it together.
(1) Global rudder, to "wean" the new forces?
Many people say that 2021 is the first year of new energy vehicles, in this year, the sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 2.989 million units, and the penetration rate has frequently exceeded 20% since the second half of the year. It seems that everything is moving in a good direction, and many people are exclaiming that the era of electrification is really coming.
However, behind the prosperity, it is not all good news.
The state's new energy subsidies since 2009 are actually declining. From the initial focus on fuel saving capacity, to the beginning of the focus on the mileage, to the breakdown of the mileage, and the price also has corresponding requirements. In general, the subsidy conditions are becoming more and more reasonable, but the amount of subsidies is declining.
And 2021 seems to be a watershed, as the technology has gradually matured in recent years, the country has the meaning of breaking the supplement, but manufacturers are feedback on the construction of new energy vehicles "do not make money".
By 2022, the subsidy for pure electric vehicles with a range of 300km-400km has been reduced by 3900 yuan compared with the previous year, and the electric vehicle with a range greater than 400km has been reduced by 5400 yuan, and the hybrid model has been reduced by 2040 yuan. Don't underestimate these thousands of pieces, which is not a small pressure for Wei Xiaoli, who is eager to open the market on the verge of profit and loss.
The key is that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will also be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after 2023 will no longer be able to enjoy the purchase subsidy.
This is yet another sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of the new forces.
China, the largest market for new energy vehicles, is adjusting, in fact, overseas markets are also adjusting at the same time.
For example, the European Union, which is recently dominated by France and Germany, has begun to seriously discuss abandoning carbon neutrality, and it is said that it will abandon the relevant subsidies for the photovoltaic industry and will give priority to energy security issues.
This not only means that coal and nuclear energy will return to the C position, but also means that new energy vehicles under the banner of green and environmental protection will receive less policy support.
The United States is becoming more and more conservative, including the recent acceleration of the US stock market in "driving away" Wei Xiaoli. Japan is resolutely opposed to the development of pure electric vehicles. As a result, the international environment faced by Wei Xiaoli is no longer friendly.
If the development of new energy was politically correct in the past, now it is based on preferences. Especially in European countries, they are the first to encourage new energy, and now see the upstream of the industry occupied by the United States and China, immediately began to turn the rudder, can be described as "pragmatic" to the extreme.
(2) Supply chain problems occur frequently, what is the solution to price increases?
Corresponding to the policy adjustment at home and abroad, there are also supply chain problems, and the corresponding price increases, which also threaten the survival of Wei Xiaoli.
According to the latest data, the global chip pre-production time from order to delivery has reached 26.2 weeks. This means that chip delivery waits for more than half a year on average, which greatly affects the production of car companies.
The key is that Wei Xiaoli is taking the route of intelligent cars, not only to have a faster response to the car machine system, but also to support high-end intelligent driving functions. These require more sophisticated chips, and the lead time is naturally longer. Another consequence of chip scarcity is that Wei Xiaoli has completely lost the bargaining power in this regard and can only be slaughtered.
In addition to the price of chips rising, the prices of other components are actually rising. After all, the price of raw materials has soared in the past two years, which has also greatly pushed up the physical cost of building cars.
In fact, Wei Xiaoli has also begun to think of a way, and before the news came out, Wei Xiaoli injected funds into Sunwoda at the same time. And Sunwoda is actually a manufacturer of digital 3C lithium batteries, and the power battery is actually a "newcomer". The reason why Wei Xiaoli found it is also very simple, that is, to open up new suppliers outside the Ningde era in order to reduce costs as much as possible.
But they can not forget that the former first-line new forces Weima has engaged in four or five suppliers, and the result is that spontaneous combustion is frequent and cannot find the reason, and recently there has been a scandal of "locking electricity". Wei Xiaoli hastily opened up new supply channels, whether they will fall into the same dilemma as Weima, it is not known, but the risk is definitely there.
In fact, "cost reduction" has always been a technical work, just like the Japanese car that has been criticized by everyone, saying that there is a lot of plastic, the sound of closing the door is not good, but the quality of people is very good. After Wei Xiaoli embarks on this road, whether they can guarantee quality will determine how far they can go.
(3) The plunge of new forces is actually the return of value?
The past decade has actually belonged to the decade of science and technology, and the rise of the Internet and new energy is the best example. Just as Tesla's market value exceeds Toyota and Volkswagen, Wei Xiaoli's market value also exceeds that of many traditional car companies. But a closer look reveals that this is not fair.
Geely Automobile, for example, built its first car in 1998 and began exporting it overseas in 2003. The earliest is to build geely panda such an entry-level scooter, and later built Emgrand, Borui, Boyue, and then in recent years to launch the Lynk & Co series, the launch of Xingrui, Xingyue L, it can be said that all the way is climbing the science and technology tree.
At the commercial level, Geely was also very successful, and the acquisition of Volvo allowed it to successfully break into the European market and bring the Nordic brand back to the forefront of second-tier luxury. The acquisition of Proton Automobile has allowed it to successfully enter the Southeast Asian market and has formed a strong influence in the local area. The acquisition of the British sports car brand Lotus has allowed it to have its own top sports car brand, achieving high-end transformation. Its Drive-E intelligent technology powertrain can be said to be world-renowned, and it is recognized as the world's top powertrain technology.
Then overnight, Wei Xiaoli, who only sells in China, does not make money, and has not yet sold more than 100,000 vehicles a year, said that the market value has surpassed Geely, which sounds really funny.
The key is that the technology of Wei Xiaoli is actually not too amazing.
Before Weipai CEO Li Ruifeng bluntly said that the new forces can not create DHT. Is the ideal set of so-called extended range hybrid technology really comparable to the Great Wall DHT and Geely's Thor hybrid? The performance is crushed, the specific energy consumption is also better than that, and the working noise is even greater.
The success of Wei Xiaoli is largely in fact the louder volume of capital, the accumulation of true technology, they are not the opponents of traditional car companies.
Therefore, their decline is more of a return to value, because they have been held to a high level that did not belong to them.
(4) Kung Fu shooting
Wei Xiaoli was "blood-washed", to some extent, it is actually a return of value, you do not have so much ability, too high position is unstable.
Next, their financing may not be so smooth, and they need to improve profit margins, reduce costs, and open up larger markets. The second ICU is just the beginning, and what kind of energy they will burst out in the face of adversity will determine whether they can really stand firm.
In the past, they were the darlings of policy, the focus of pursuit, catching up with the wind outlet, and indeed flying. But now, it may be more on your own.