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Author: Yi Pin Wen team Yi Uncle, welcome to forward!
Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia seems to be shouting for a while, and Western public opinion has mobilized their media machine with all its strength, opened fire on Russia in all directions, and banded together to sanction Russia.
For a time, Russia seemed to be very miserable, according to statistics, more than 300 companies announced their withdrawal from Russia, 2778 sanctions were imposed in two weeks, and even the United Nations General Assembly issued a resolution condemning Russia.
From this, it seems as if Russia has become an enemy of the whole world. However, as the war progressed, many intelligent people already found that the situation seemed to be a little different, and the pattern of the world seemed to have begun to change somewhat.
When it comes to whether to sanction Russia, the world seems to be divided into two. On the one hand, the Anglo-Saga group and its successors and the EUROPEAN Union group and its followers, specifically the Five Eyes Alliance plus Japan, South Korea, Xintai (region) and the European Union plus Switzerland and Montenegro and other countries, on the other hand, in addition to these countries, the vast number of third world countries such as Eurasia, Africa and Latin America, which maintain a neutral attitude and do not follow up with Western sanctions. As a result, this unprecedented sanction became a stress test, which was the world's first truly huge power with great influence after the Cold War and the Western world completely turned its face. So what can such a big country do to it once it lifts the table? All countries in the world are very interested in knowing the results of this test.
In fact, this kind of development is not in Russia's initial plan, from Putin's initial plan, it can be seen that the Russian army actually wants to copy the destruction of 2014, hoping to use the strategy of blitzkrieg to capture Kiev in one fell swoop, take most of the Ukrainian government, including Zelenskiy, and then pass on most of Ukraine, making it difficult for the outside world to react too much.
But apparently, Putin's strategy failed. Judging from the overall advancement of the Russian military, the Russian army has exposed many problems, such as the rigidity and backwardness of tactical tactics, the high rate of equipment damage, the lack of guided munitions and advanced integrated unmanned aerial vehicle systems, poor logistical support, and serious shortage of troops. So many people feel that Russia is going to end, it will definitely fall into a quagmire similar to Afghanistan in Ukraine, and how Russia will collapse when the time comes.
Is there any justification for this view? It seems to make some sense, even some Russians think so. However, whether it is reasonable or not, we must also conduct an objective analysis from the perspective of the situation. To analyze the situation clearly, we must start from Russia's self-positioning. Putin once said a word, give me 20 years, give you a strong Russia. Putin came to power in 2000, and it has been 22 years since today, is Russia strong?
From the perspective of GDP, Russia's GDP in 2010 and Russia's GDP in 2020 have hardly changed much, and although there have been some climaxes in the middle, they were quickly hit by Western sanctions. The main reason is that Russia has a period of rapid economic growth from 2009 to 2014, when Russia's national GDP grew by almost one-third, with a rapid momentum. As a result, the West directly launched a color revolution in Ukraine, taking out the pro-Russian President Yanukovych. Seeing that Ukraine had changed, Russia quickly occupied the Crimean Peninsula, and a civil war broke out in the east and west of Ukraine. In response to Russia, the West imposed severe sanctions on Russia, allowing Russia's economy to return overnight to the level of 2009, and has not eased up until now.
In fact, Russia's attempt to use force against Ukraine has a long history, and the direct trigger is that after Zelenskiy became president, he directly amended Ukraine's constitution in 2019, and wrote the search for accession to the European Union and NATO into the constitution, which made the contradictions between Russia and Ukraine irreconcilable. It was only because of the outbreak of the new crown epidemic that it was delayed for several years before it started. Many people have analyzed the external reasons for Putin's action, and Ukraine's accession to NATO will pose a great security threat to Russia, and Uncle Yi will not repeat it here. In addition to geopolitical security reasons, there is actually a more important reason, that is, Russia sees no hope.
It has been more than two decades since Putin came to power, and in the past two decades, Russia has been locked in chains like a giant bear, and even locked tighter and tighter. Is It putin incompetent? Obviously not, because from Russia's GDP growth over the years, it can be seen that if it were not for Western sanctions, Russia's development would actually be very fast. Is Putin not pro-Western enough? Apparently not either. After Coming to power, Putin has repeatedly confessed to the West and joined NATO many times, but only the relentless ridicule of the West has been obtained. The recently exposed video of Biden also controlling his sphincter meeting, when he publicly mocked Russia mercilessly, in his eyes, Russia to find a Chinese union is a joke, if not can also go to Iran. How arrogant this is! Therefore, the United Russia anti-Sino faction represented by the American scholar Millsheimer is purely a joke, if the United States really improves relations with Russia and accepts Russia into the Western family, the final result will become a rapid combination of Russia and Europe, especially the rapid formation of the three countries of Russia, Germany and France, and then Europe will completely make up for the lack of military strength, and the United States will be quickly marginalized. At that time, it will not be so easy for the United States to control Europe. Compared with the so-called long-term vision of the United Russia resistance to China, it is even more unacceptable to the United States to lose Europe, so the United States not only cannot engage in any joint Russian resistance to China, but its national policy is to kill Russia, and it is best to divide Russia into several pieces and then abolish its own martial arts, so that it can be completely at ease. Even the pro-Russian Trump came to power, but only slowed down this national policy of the United States, but did not reverse it.
In fact, the most important thing is that Russia's development path completely overlaps with that of the United States, forming a strong competitive relationship. Russia is a big energy exporter, and so is the United States. Russia is a major exporter of military equipment, and so is the United States. Russia is a big exporter of agricultural products, and so is the United States. What's more, every Russian has a dream of a big country in their hearts, from their grandparents to their fathers, they are one of the most powerful countries in the world, either European gendarmes or red empires. Putin has struggled for more than 20 years, and the gap with the United States is getting farther and farther, if according to the existing international political and economic system, no matter what Russia does, let alone surpass the United States, even if it is difficult to get closer to the United States.
Therefore, the inability of Russia to develop is in fact not a Problem for Russia at all, but the West is not willing to let Russia develop at all. For them, a weak, slaughtered Russian bear is a good Russian bear, and it would be better if the bear is dismembered again. But Russians, including Putin, simply cannot agree with this, Russians also have national pride, and they don't say that their ancestors have been broad, even their fathers have been broad, where can they bear this oppression? So what to do? Putin is also older, and he can't slowly survive for another twenty years for a powerful opportunity. In the end, there is only one way left in Huashan, that is, lifting the table. Therefore, it is completely unrealistic for foreign media to expect Russians to rise up and overthrow Putin, and even if they are really overthrown, they will only come up with more radical and anti-Western factions, and definitely not pro-Western factions.
Russia's so-called lifting of the table is actually to hit Ukraine, but what is the purpose of hitting Ukraine? Uncle Yi's personal analysis has the following points:
1. De-militarize Ukraine and never join NATO to ensure Russia's geopolitical security.
This is the most important and basic point, and if this purpose cannot be achieved, then there is no need to talk about anything else. Putin's initial military plan was actually a quick decision, but he overestimated Russia's military capabilities and underestimated Ukraine's resistance. As a result, the quick-fix plan is in fact bankrupt. Nowadays, the Russian army has changed its tactics, begun to fight steadily and steadily, and no longer venture forward, which is actually the best way of playing the Russian army at present. Make full use of Russia's absolute air-to-ground military superiority, annihilate Ukraine's living forces in the field, do not rush to fight large-scale urban street battles, and then use long-range firepower to weaken the opponent, mobilize volunteers from Syria, Central Africa, Venezuela, Serbia and other places to carry out brutal urban street battles on the front line, and seize the city step by step. In addition, a large number of pro-Russian Ethnic Ukrainians were recruited in the Sparton region to take over the control of the Ukrainian areas under the Russian army, and these methods were used to achieve the purpose of de-Nazismization and de-militarization of Ukraine and stabilizing the control. In addition, military pressure will be used to impose political pressure on Ukraine, forcing Ukraine to finally fully accept Russia's terms. If NATO really dared to intervene militarily, Uncle Yi had no doubt that Russia would launch a tactical nuclear weapon against a small Eastern European country like Lithuania, which had the highest jump before the war, and then see which country in Britain, the United States and France would destroy each other with nuclear weapons with Russia for such a small country as Lithuania. This is what the West can understand, the style of the bear can not play the cowardly game or cut sausages, the bear will only slap the face.
2. Taking advantage of the situation of the Russo-Ukrainian war to split NATO, that is, to split Europe and the United States.
As the war progressed, after a frenzied round of Western sanctions, Europe had already found out that something was wrong. Under the leadership of the United States, all the sanctions against Russia seem to have been imposed on Europe itself. The United States took advantage of the situation in Russia and Ukraine to start a crazy arch fire to make trouble, and then began to shrink back after Russia really fought, resolutely not sending troops to Ukraine, and the matter of who should send military planes to Ukraine between Poland and Poland has become an international joke. Eu countries such as Germany and France and Anglo-Spanish countries such as the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom have extremely sharp contradictions over whether to block Russia's energy. The euro and the dollar are about to fall to 1:1, and the United States in this war can be described as a continuous bloodletting of the European Union to alleviate its own crisis. Uncle Yi's previous articles have always said that the United States has no other choice, only eat the European Union to solve its own problems, and now it is basically a fulfillment. After this war, the politicians of the European Union should keep their distance from the United States if they still have a little brain, otherwise it is a damn ghost that is difficult to persuade... It was purely unsaved. In addition, the pressure on the European Union through the war forced the major European powers to exert political pressure on Ukraine and make the Ukrainian side accept Russia's conditions.
3. Unite Russia through war, unify thinking, make it impossible for pro-American capitulationists to gain a foothold in Russia, and let the oligarchs also take a firm stand and support Putin's fight with the West.
Putin is by no means a one-man affair within Russia, and there are many opposition forces, many of whom are political figures raised by the West. In addition, there are still many oligarchs in Russia, and these oligarchs are often in Cao Ying's heart, earning money in Russia and enjoying themselves in the West. Now that Russia has lifted the table, these oligarchs have been slaughtered by Western countries and their property confiscated. Forcing Russia's oligarchs to stand with Putin against the non-martial-speaking Western countries. Therefore, the West expects someone in Russia to come out and overthrow Putin, which is simply a fool's dream. When the whole West shows malice towards ordinary Russian people and even Russian cats and trees, not just the Russian government, it proves that the West is targeting the Russian state and the Russian nation, and it is also proof that Putin is right and necessary to fight this war. Therefore, putin's support at home has soared all the way to show the support of the Russian people for him.
4. Break the illusions of some people in Russia about the West, adjust Russia's economic structure, remove the dependence of the Russian economy on the West, let Russia look east, and form closer economic and trade relations with the eastern powers.
Russia has traditionally had its heart set on Western Europe, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia has always been reluctant to cooperate with the eastern powers, and their ideal partner is actually Germany. If Russia and Germany join forces, then Germany's industrial strength plus Russia's energy and minerals can be described as the best partner, and it can also be dominated by Russia. But cooperation with the great powers of the East, with the size of Russia, is impossible to dominate. But the ideal is the ideal, and the reality is cruel. No matter from any point of view, Russia cannot completely reconcile with the West, and there is only one way for Russia to cooperate closely with the eastern powers to form complementary advantages. But breaking the traditional thinking is painful, Putin was slapped by the West for more than a decade before waking up, so this war is a sobering agent to sober up other people in Russia who have not yet woken up. At this time, think again, in 2021, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu publicly said that Russia should move its capital to Siberia, and Putin said at that time that although it is not feasible to move the capital, it is possible to relocate some important departments and large companies in Russia. This statement is definitely not casual, which indicates that Russia's future strategic focus will inevitably be to look east.
5, in the world as the first big country to lift the table, the formation of a bellwether effect, to remove the fear of the United States in other bitter and long-standing countries, when the wall is pushed down by everyone, as long as the United States does not become the leading big brother, then the world will enter the Warring States era, and the opportunity for Russia's comprehensive rejuvenation will appear.
The Russo-Ukrainian War has continued to this day, and the whole world has discovered that the United States is a real pit bull. Ukraine's belief in the evil results of the United States is really cannon fodder. However, the legendary financial nuclear bomb and other sanctions do not seem to be of much use to Russia, which has been prepared for it. For Russia, with food, energy, minerals and industry, and a population of just over 140 million, it is completely self-sufficient and has no fear of external sanctions. Even the United States has to beg Venezuela, Iran and other countries that it previously called rogue countries to provide oil and gas as soon as possible, and to this end, it is not hesitant to abandon the previous public opinion criticism and economic sanctions. So India began to support Russia from a neutral attitude, Pakistan openly purchased Russian wheat, and NATO members such as Turkey also said that they would not sanction Russia. In the face of the undisguised weakness of the United States, more countries or organizations will jump out and be embarrassed with the United States in the future, and the United States will do nothing, and Russia is a benchmark. Russia can say that this time the big showdown on the old world order has attracted the world's opposition, and almost no country in the Third World has followed the pace of the United States, which the United States may not have expected. Mr. Lu Xun said that those who damage the teeth and eyes of others, but oppose revenge and advocate tolerance, should never get close to him. Aren't the Western countries led by the United States just such a typical example? This also shows why most countries have been suffering for a long time.
6, Putin's last killer is Trump.
It can be basically assumed that the next US president, Trump, will inevitably be elected if there is no accident. As a pro-Russian and pro-Putin, he will obviously relax sanctions against Russia with his personality after coming to power. That is to say, Russia has absorbed Ukraine under pressure in the past three years, and Trump will be much easier after taking office, which is probably the result of Putin's political actuarial calculation.
To sum up, since the beginning of this war, the pattern of the entire world has been completely changed. The Ukrainian people are arguably the greatest victims, who have been deceived and hurt by Ukrainian politicians and oligarchs, and who are now suffering from the pain of war, which is unfortunate. Secondly, Europe has lost numbness, and the EU's economy will continue to shrink relative to us in the short and medium term, which will also help Europe to remain calm enough in the face of our related issues and no longer dare to dictate to us like spoiled children. The United States has gained a lot in this war, but because of the big profits, the profits are not as big as imagined. And the United States has completely exposed its own bad image in this war, including Britain, Switzerland, singapore, these financial countries can be said to have completely lost credibility, which will lead to the continued weakening of the leadership of the United States and the dollar. Our northeast and northwest will benefit from russia's economy looking east, and the economic belt of the Belt and Road will be more abundant. After the sanctions, the energy, minerals and agricultural products of Russia and Central Asia can only be eaten in large quantities by China, which can be said to have completely bound us, which will greatly promote the internationalization of the renminbi, and also give our industry a stable supply of resources and promote the stable development of our industrial capital. If we really stand on top of the world one day, we should really thank Russia for its desperate bet at this moment and being a pawn again! If you have any interesting insights, please feel free to leave a message below to discuss! (This article is Uncle Yi said the world series, interested friends, please use WeChat to search for the public number: the situation emperor, watch all the original articles of the Uncle Yi said the world series)