【Editor's Note】This article is authorized by the author's own headline platform to be exclusively originally published, reproduced from the public account "Kuzhi Jiaotong University". The author is Wang Gaigai, founder and dean of the Great Diplomatic Think Tank, and director of the "China Diplomatic Risk Assessment" project of the Great Diplomatic Think Tank.
Many media at home and abroad are predicting the development trend of the future Russian-Ukrainian war, and many foreign media are making predictions about the situation based on their own value perspectives, and the research team of the Great Diplomatic Think Tank (GDYT) believes that it can be summarized as "three impossibilities" and "three possibilities".
One or three is impossible
(i) NATO's dispatch of troops is impossible
First, it is impossible for NATO to intervene directly in the situation in Ukraine. The United States has made it clear that it will not send troops, and European countries have never said that they will send troops. Even if Russia successfully occupies all of Ukraine, NATO countries do not dare to rush to intervene, which is too risky. Russia has never made a commitment not to be the first to use nuclear weapons, and western countries fear provoking nuclear war. Russia's attack on Ukraine's nuclear power plants is a hint to Western European countries that if they rush to send troops, their nuclear power facilities could be hit, with unthinkable consequences. In short, the scuffle of the Crimean War of 1856 will not be repeated.
However, Western countries will be involved in the Russo-Ukrainian war in an informal way, including so-called volunteers, mercenaries, or some special forces infiltrating Ukraine in their personal capacity with weapons. Ukraine borders four NATO countries, and these soldiers easily infiltrated Ukraine and easily retreated from Ukraine. It is possible for the Russian military to engage NATO's irregular army, but as long as it does not occur in the territory of NATO countries, it will not cause a war between Russia and NATO.
(ii) A coup d'état in Russia is impossible
Almost all Western media outlets are hyping up this ending. However, this is obviously wishful thinking, and "historical determinism" is unreliable. Historically, in the case of Russia's external expansion, there have often been political turmoil and even revolutions at home, and these facts are very clear to us. But today's Russia is far from that level.
First, the sanctions imposed by the United States, while indeed severe, will not have an immediate effect. Russia was very well prepared before it started the war. Russia is likely to have largely accomplished its military objectives before the sanctions take effect. Western sanctions are themselves a double-edged sword, a big shock to capitalist interests, and Western countries may have to endure the risk of soaring oil prices.
Second, the war launched by Russia against Ukraine this time is very different from the historical war of aggression and expansion. Ukrainians and Russians are thicker than water and are the birthplace of Russian civilization. Putin's aim is not to expand territory, but to protect the core interests of the Russian nation. NATO's eastward expansion has made Russia intolerable, and this war is a last resort. Putin does not need to make any deceptive propaganda to the people, because the incident itself stimulates Russian nationalism.
Third, some Western media compare Putin to the historical Tsar, which is completely meaningless. The Tsar was a hereditary head of state, most of whom had limited IQ abilities, and it was possible to make bad decisions. Putin has extensive experience in intelligence work and knows a lot about the military. Russia's political lifeblood is firmly controlled by Putin's political allies, and Russia's economy is firmly controlled by putin-backed oligarchs. Putin's personal approval rating has been high, and until now it still has 55 percent support, which is already the lowest in his history. And Russia is a directly elected president whose representation is unquestionable. The Russians know very well that if they move the Putin regime now, Russia will still not be treated well by the West.
(iii) Russia's war was unfavorable and its defeat from Ukraine was impossible
The Western media has played up Putin's predicament in Ukraine, but in fact Putin is still in control of the dominance. Russia's failure to use large-scale lethal weapons and heavy weapons to avoid civilian casualties does not mean that the Russian military will not use these weapons in the future. Russia has a wealth of experience in foreign intervention and has historically been more successful than the United States. Whether it is the war in Syria or the war in Counterinsurgency in Chechnya in Russia, it reflects the completely unyielding style of the Russian army. At Putin's behest, President Kadyrov of the Chechen Republic of Russia threatened to send officers and troops to Ukraine for combat, which would have a great deterrent effect. Putin will never allow defeat in this war, so he will take these measures if necessary.
Two or three possibilities
So, in what direction will the end of the war go? The Great Diplomatic Think Tank (GDYT) summarized the views of various scholars and believed that there were three possibilities.
(i) "Finnish model" or "South Ossetia model"
It is unlikely that Russia will completely occupy and rule Ukraine, and Putin may not have had such high goals. But the "Finnish model" and the "South Ossetian model" are most likely to be the result of war.
The "Finnish model" refers to the fact that ukraine as a whole becomes a neutral country, promising not to join NATO, but to join the European Union. Although the Ukrainian government does not want to see this result, the Ukrainian government may eventually accept it under the continued blow of Russian artillery fire. There is still some way to go before this goal, but it will eventually be achieved. Russia has not yet used a wide range of heavy weapons on a large scale, but it has the initiative to use them.
The "South Ossetian model", in which eastern Ukraine gains "independence" and is under the safe haven of Russia, Ukraine will become what it is today in Georgia, which has not yet joined NATO. However, Ukraine is different from Georgia, which borders NATO countries and Georgia is geographically isolated. Even if Russia separates Eastern Ukraine, there will still be intensive anti-Russian activity in western Ukraine, and Ukraine cannot de facto remain neutral. The future could be: Russia's presence of troops in some of ukraine's major ports and major cities threatens Ukraine's security at all times.
(2) Long-term encroachment patterns
It is also possible that the Ukrainian government refused to yield and insisted on joining NATO, and that Russia, affected by sanctions, had to stop its offensive and withdraw its troops. If this possibility arises, then Russia will engage in a long war of attrition with Ukraine. Specifically, Russia has copied the experience of donetsk oblasts and Luhansk oblasts to the central region of Ukraine to foster pro-Russian armed forces, so that more regions in Ukraine will become Russia's "satellite areas". When the time comes, Russia will support the independence of these regions, thereby encroaching on the territory of Ukraine, and eventually Ukraine will become an ethnic Ukrainian Ukraine, becoming a single nation-state.
Given Russia's limited economic strength and sanctions, the above possibility is highly likely, closest to the natural development of the Ukrainian crisis. So far, neither Russia nor the West has the will to compromise, and such a game is a possible outcome
(3) The model of local rule
It is also possible that Russia will replicate its historical experience of territorial expansion and rule locally wherever it goes. Russia may occupy several large ukrainian cities, administer them, and collect taxes. Russia's own economy is highly self-sufficient, and economic sanctions are not enough to bring Russia to its knees. Newly occupied territories, while imposing a financial burden, would also have fiscal revenues. Russia may also build a wall inside Ukrainian territory to prevent infiltration by foreign forces and Ussi personnel from occupying the occupied areas. In addition, Russia is actively promoting "eastward" diplomacy and is committed to expanding the Asian market, and although an alliance between China is impossible, China will provide economic support.
Finally, we must also consider the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on China. Whatever the outcome, China's overland Belt and Road Initiative may face difficulties, and China should plan ahead and be fully prepared.