What misjudgments have been made by all parties in the situation in Ukraine to this day?

Russia's "special military operations" in Ukraine entered its 24th day, and now the results of the situation's developments are honestly not entirely anticipated by any of the parties to the conflict, whether direct or indirect. Since it was not expected, there must have been a misjudgment in the previous decision-making.

If you know today, why did you know it in the first place?

1. Let's start with the stupidest EU. Mainly Western Europe, including Germany. This is a bunch of idiots dancing with the United States, and it is their confused strategic orientation that has led to a crisis that has become unmanageable. In comparison, former German Chancellor Schroeder is the most sober, and the launch of the "Nord Stream" project is not a cocoon, self-imposed in Russia. Rather, it is a crucial step towards a bundle of interests and a strategic balance with Russia. The premise is that as long as you don't touch Ukraine, both sides can get along.

The EU's biggest miscalculation, on the strategic front, is to exaggerate Russia's security threats for a long time while ignoring Putin's goal of reviving Russia; demonizing Putin personally without giving Russia equal negotiating position. The EU is even less aware of ukraine's neutrality as fundamental to achieving a geopolitical balance between Russia and Europe.

On the tactical front, the EU has completely underestimated Putin's determination to start fighting. When Russia moves, it is difficult to ride the tiger at once, and can only follow the big brother United States to sanction, hoping that Russia will withdraw its troops under heavy pressure. As a result, the EU wounded a thousand enemies and wounded itself eight hundred.

Macron said every day that NATO has been "brain dead", but it has not been able to make an independent voice to influence NATO and the European Union. Schroeder was a businessman, and Merkel, who was born in East Germany, and Putin were the most empathetic and empathetic. In 2014, the United States pushed Ukraine to carry out the "Independence Square" revolution, which is to force Russia to make a move. After the Crimea incident, Merkel had to join the condemnation and sanctions against Russia. Even so, Americans and Populists in Europe believe Merkel is too soft on Putin.

Constantly fueling the waves between the EU and Russia is the key to the "offshore control" of the United States, but the EU is good at this mouth, and it cannot extricate itself from it. In the past, "the sun does not set" to play this hand, and after "sunset" the United States took over, this is the fate of the European continent.

The EU has existed for a long time not only externally, but also internally. When the sovereign debt crisis came, small countries such as Greece and Ireland, in order to win relief, could only follow the unified prescription of the Americans, and tighten their finances under the pressure of the "troika" of France, Germany and the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund.

The biggest problem in France and Germany is that they are neither soft nor hard. The old country wants face, but it does not have the determination and courage to break the net.

2. Next, Ukraine. One term of different leaders will bring Ukraine a different destiny. On the stall Zelenskiy, this man is definitely no dumber than the EU, but the result in Ukraine is the most tragic.

Zelenskiy's biggest strategic misjudgment is that he did not see that "duplicity" and "wall-headed grass" were the only way to survive between NATO and Russia; the tactical misjudgment was that nato and the United States were not expected to directly enter the war, let alone let Ukraine "in the line of fire".

But Putin's intention to act is definitely the expected consequence of the "actor president", otherwise he would not have gone crazy with NATO to "arch the fire", and on February 17, he continued to attack the civilian armed forces in Eastern Ukraine with mortars and rockets.

After Ukraine was "beaten", the United States did not benefit the population, and only sanctioned without using force, which the film emperor did not expect. He is now non-stop, successively "performing" to the parliaments of various countries, that is, to break the jar and break the jar, try to make things bigger, it is best to incite the United States and NATO to directly participate in the war, even if not, he can isolate and demonize Putin in front of the whole world, and use all means to coerce Russia to withdraw.

Ukraine cannot agree to most of Russia's conditions in the negotiations, and for the "actor president", the negotiations are nothing more than acting, and the speech is also acting. Life is like a drama, everything has not yet settled, and it must be performed according to the script.

Zelenskiy, who really does not deserve the Nobel Peace Prize, is fully worthy of an Oscar lifetime achievement award.

3. Then there's Russia. Russia is not strategically in serious trouble, but there is definitely something wrong with tactics. First, the effect of military operations must be an error compared with the time of sand table exercises. Whatever Russia's original intentions were, what the real situation on the battlefield was, and who violated humanitarian law, Russia's original intentions were certainly not realized in the ideal way.

Second, the intensity of sanctions imposed by the United States and Western countries was not fully anticipated.

After crimea, the number of Western sanctions against Russia surpassed that of North Korea and Syria, second only to Iran. At present, the Western sanctions against Russia exceed 5500, involving all countries, institutions and individuals. There is no doubt that these measures will cause great difficulties to the Russian national economy and the livelihood of the people, but they are basically counterproductive to forcing Russia to withdraw. Putin's several speeches before and after the military campaign, including a series of economic measures, have demonstrated Russia's adherence to strategic choices.

Without making value judgments, the way Russia should take at this time is to maintain a negotiating posture on the one hand, and on the other hand, to use military means to obtain negotiating chips to the greatest extent within its capabilities and strive for a quick decision; at the same time, it will stabilize people's minds and unify its determination at home, and there must be no noise in the rear that shakes the foundation of Putin's administration.

4. Finally, the United States. The United States is the "initiator" of the Ukraine crisis, and the biggest behind-the-scenes black hand, the "offshore manipulator" of the global geopolitical landscape that began in the Truman era. Europe is just one of those chips.

So far, the United States is the biggest contributor to the development of events in Ukraine, and creating the Ukrainian problem between the European Union and Russia is originally a chip for the United States, which can achieve the purpose of weakening Russia and further strengthening the EU's dependence on the United States. Therefore, the United States has had the fewest misjudgments before. However, After the fact, China's attitude will affect the effect of the US strategic choice to the greatest extent, which is not controllable by the Americans, and the initiative is on the mainland, and it will not be analyzed here.

The United States was the first to instigate the fire and impose sanctions on Russia, and to win over allies to continuously increase and escalate sanctions against Russia, which shows that the United States has long prepared a series of "sanctions packages" for Russia's actions and follow-up reactions.

The fundamental goal of the United States in playing "offshore manipulation" is to ensure that its homeland is always safe. The United States has established military bases and gangs everywhere for this goal. NATO is to prevent Russia from dominating Europe, and the Indo-Pacific strategy and containment policy are designed to prevent China from dominating Asia. Under the premise of not using nuclear weapons, as long as China and Russia are checked and balanced, the US mainland will always be safe. Under the premise of absolute safety, monopoly capitalists can make good money, which is the second goal.

Therefore, the Americans cannot say that they have made a strategic misjudgment until now, but they have made a very important strategic choice. Whether the consequences of this choice lead to misjudgment by Americans will take some time to test. This option is to force Russia to begin to truly "de-dollarize."

What the world lacks most after World War II is the dollar! After the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis, what is most lacking, or the dollar! As long as the dollar is still the global base currency, the United States is certainly the most arrogant country on the planet. Whether fighting a physical war or an economic war, whoever has more dollars will have an absolute advantage.

As early as 2007, when the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States was just beginning, Russia tried to shake the international monetary system based on the us dollar by selling US Treasuries. However, at that time, the entanglement of interests of various countries was more complicated, and Russia was alone, and it did not have any impact on the dollar system.

After the European sovereign debt crisis, the dollar gap is too large, basically all banks need a large number of dollars to repay the debt, the foreign exchange reserves of countries are stretched, and they can only rely on the Federal Reserve as the "lender" of the global dollar to tide over the difficulties. Europe's indisputable spirit reflects the birth defect of the euro, and the status of the dollar has been further strengthened.

But now the Americans are sanctioning Russia, treating financial measures as "big killers." The first is to directly deprive and freeze the foreign dollar assets of the sanctioned entities; the second is to cut off the normal way for Russian financial entities to obtain dollars; and the third is to kick Russia directly out of the SWIFT system. This has forced Russia to be reluctant and in fact become a touchstone for the "de-dollarization" of the international financial system.

What the global financial crisis did not accomplish, Russia does not know whether it can be done this time, after all, the world still needs Russia's huge oil and gas strategic resources. The U.S. sanctions on Russia will objectively also prompt more countries to seek diversification of foreign exchange reserves, settlement currencies, and payment systems. Whether the dollar-based Anglo-Saxon financial system can be opened up is worth constantly watching.