Ukraine's economy could shrink by 40 percent this year
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is superimposed on the COVID-19 pandemic
Miners expect raw material prices to rise
The United States agitates allies
Transfer of Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine
What are the new developments in the situation in Ukraine?
Let's take a look
IAEA Director General Grossi attends a press conference in Vienna, Austria, on 1 April. IAEA Director General Grossi said on Social Media on April 1 that he would lead an aid team to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine in the near future. In addition, the agency will send more assistance teams to Ukraine to help ensure the safety of nuclear facilities in Ukraine. Later in the day, Grossi said at a news conference in Vienna, Austria, that the first aid team would soon depart for the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Guo Chen
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The Ukrainian government department said on the 2nd that due to the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Ukrainian economy has suffered a heavy blow, and it is expected that the economy may shrink by 40% this year. Ukraine is considering exporting agricultural products through Romania's ports.
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine issued a statement on the same day, saying that according to preliminary estimates, Ukraine's GDP in the first quarter of this year fell by 16% compared with the same period last year, and it is expected that the GDP for the whole year may fall by 40%. The statement read: "Areas where remote work cannot be taken are the most affected. ”
According to World Bank statistics, Ukraine's GDP in 2020 was $155.5 billion, accounting for about 0.14% of the global economy. According to Ukrainian government figures, the country's gdp will be about $195 billion in 2021.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicted in a report a few days ago that the Ukrainian economy will contract by 20% this year due to the continued impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The report notes that the regions where the fighting took place at this stage contribute 60% of Ukraine's GDP. Right now, about 30 percent of Ukraine's businesses have stopped production, using electricity equivalent to 60 percent of pre-conflict levels.
As one of Ukraine's important industries, agriculture has also been impacted. Known as the "granary of Europe", Ukraine is a major exporter of corn and wheat. Previously, Ukraine accounted for 12 percent of global wheat exports, 15 percent for corn and 50 percent for sunflower oil.
Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture said Ukraine is currently losing $1.5 billion a month due to the actual stagnation of operations at Ukraine's main export ports. To address this problem, Ukraine is negotiating with Romania and intends to export agricultural products through the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanţa. This claim was confirmed by the Romanian side.
Ukraine's Minister of Agriculture Nikolai Solisky said: "We are looking for other logistics routes with our partners to get our products out of European ports such as Konstanţa. ”
At the same time, Ukraine is seeking to increase grain exports to Poland, Romania and Slovakia by truck or rail.
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Affected by the new crown epidemic, the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine and other factors, energy and food prices in many countries have risen sharply. Mineral resources supplier Eurasia Resources Group CEO Benedict Sobotka expects the prices of raw materials such as iron ore, copper and aluminum to rise further.
Eurasia Resources group is a major global supplier of cobalt, copper, aluminum and iron ore, with mines in Kazakhstan, Brazil and South Africa, employing approximately 75,000 people.
Sobotka said in an interview broadcast by The German News Agency on the 2nd that since the beginning of this year, the prices of wheat, fertilizer, crude oil, natural gas, aluminum and copper have risen to historical highs, and further price fluctuations are inevitable.
"In the coming months, many of the important supplies of our daily lives will become more expensive, from bread and coffee to computerized cars to building materials, housing and household energy consumption."
Sobotka believes that the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has put more pressure on the global economy affected by the new crown epidemic, and the sanctions imposed by many countries on Russia have also promoted price increases.
Smoke rose over an oil facility in the Russian city of Belgorod on 1 April. Xinhua News Agency/TASS
The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the automobile manufacturing industry is already being felt. Russia is home to many important metals, such as nickel, which is indispensable in the manufacture of automotive batteries, aluminum used to make body and wheels, and palladium and platinum for automotive exhaust systems. Ukraine is an important supplier of auto parts.
Sobtka said demand for cobalt and copper has been high and global inventories have been low as countries are developing renewable energy and electric mobility. Long before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, experts were already anticipating a copper shortage. At present, the supply pressure of cobalt and copper has further increased, and it is expected that the price of cobalt and copper will continue to rise in the future.
"Given all the uncertainty since the 2020s, one thing is very clear, and that is that we are witnessing the end of the era of cheap raw materials." Sobotka said.
In Sobotka's view, the commodities sector is probably undergoing its biggest shift in recent years. "It is no longer possible for [producers] to pick the best consumer, the most profitable route or the cheapest material ... This is the result of the pursuit of long-term sustainable development, and producers must adapt to the effects of global geopolitical uncertainty. ”
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U.S. officials revealed that the United States will work with allies and partner countries to "transfer" Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine to strengthen Ukrainian forces' defenses in the Donbass region.
The New York Times reported on the 1st with an unnamed US official as a source that the transfer of tanks was at the request of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and was about to be implemented. The United States plays a "middleman" role in this. The official declined to say how many tanks were intended to be transferred and by which countries would provide them.
It will be the first time the U.S. has helped Ukraine acquire tanks since Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine in late February. The Pentagon and the White House have not responded to the reports.
The reason for the supply of Soviet-made tanks to the Ukrainian army was that the Ukrainian army was more accustomed to manipulating Soviet-made weapons. Ukraine has also previously asked the Eastern European member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to transfer Soviet-made weapons and equipment such as MiG-29 fighter jets and S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems, but the requirements have not been met. If some Eastern European countries agree to transfer Soviet-made weapons to Ukraine, it is unclear whether the United States and other countries will use American-made weapons to "compensate" these countries.
The Russian military announced on March 25 that the main tasks of the first phase of the special military operation have been completed in general, and the Russian military will then concentrate on achieving the main objectives in the Donbass region.
U.S. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby announced on the 1st that the United States will add $300 million in "security assistance" to Ukraine, including laser-guided missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, highly maneuverable multi-wheeled armored vehicles, night vision goggles, thermal imagers, machine guns, ammunition and medical supplies. He did not mention tanks.
Source: Xinhua Net