Welcome to Chengwei International Observation. Looking at the evolution of the situation in Ukraine today, I think many people will have a feeling of how they came to this point. Ukraine and Russia, which were originally good brother countries, had been united for 300 years, and suddenly a big war had begun. In the past, we told you that the direct cause of this war is probably that the United States is constantly arching fire in the back, absorbing Ukraine into NATO, making Ukraine its own pawn, becoming a pawn, making Russia feel that its security is threatened, so it has to preemptively fight this battle.
Fundamentally, however, I think there was another person who left, which brought about the war. If that person had not left, perhaps the whole war would not have been fought at all, and a catastrophe would have disappeared into invisibility. Who is this person? Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, last September, Merkel chose to retire, after decades of hard work, just the chancellor has been working for sixteen or seven years, Merkel feels that it is time to retire, so she no longer participates in the next general election. Then after two or three months, Germany finally elected a new chancellor, Merkel left to Germany, left to this new chancellor, there are two very important political legacies, one is Nord Stream II, and the other is good relations with Russia.
Unfortunately, these two political legacies were thrown away by Germany in a matter of months, so much so that they triggered this major crisis.
Let's first say Nord Stream Ii, as we all know, Germany in the energy problem, these years are earth-shaking changes, the Germans think that they want to reduce emissions as soon as possible, as soon as possible to use clean energy, so the thermal power plant nuclear power plants are all shut down, but wind energy is good, water energy is good, solar energy is good, you are not connected, often you can generate electricity when you do not need electricity, you can not produce electricity when a lot of electricity, so Germany must buy a lot of natural gas from Russia every year, the main gas pipelines in the past, Is through the Ukrainian Poland underground Nord Stream No. 1, on the one hand not enough, on the other hand Germany is worried about the future of security risks, so in Merkel's presidency by Russia to promote, Germany and Russia jointly built Nord Stream II, this tunnel through the seabed, in the hope that the future Russia can supply a large amount of gas to Germany, which allows Germany to obtain energy security, but the United States does not dry, the United States is more ghost, you Germany a lot of gas with Russia, on the one hand you let Russia make money, On the other hand, didn't your energy get kidnapped by Russia?
After the relations between your two countries are more and more close, what if you all come to bother me? So since the day of the construction of Nord Stream No. 2, the Yankees have not been less obstructive, today sanction your construction party, tomorrow sanction your loan bank, in short, I just don't want you to build Nord Stream No. 2. But Merkel is really the Iron Lady, and even Trump dared to intimidate others.
So although the United States moved sideways, the German government was not moved, especially before Merkel's retirement in July and August last year, he was very tough to warn the United States, we Germany is a sovereign independent country, we want to buy energy with whichever country we want, we will buy with whom. Why are you in the way of the United States hindering me? Under Merkel's strong pressure, the United States announced that I would withdraw the sanctions on Nord Stream II, and you would continue to do whatever I wanted, so that at the end of last year, Nord Stream II was finally built.
Logically speaking, this is a great thing for Germany, the pipeline that Russia spent tens of billions of dollars to build was finally built, you Germany just encountered an energy crisis last winter, the people can't buy enough natural gas, I am now sending charcoal in the snow, what a good thing, the result is at this critical moment, Merkel because of her own life plan, people chose to retire, the United States saw the opportunity to come, the new prime minister just came up to his shallow foundation, under the continuous pressure of the United States, the new German government chose me to temporarily not let Nord Stream II ventilate And why, I'm going to conduct a review, to be honest who doesn't understand.
The pipeline has been built for so many years, it is not easy to repair, you German government to review what, the new German government to find some, the German government is careful, choose some small problems that have nothing to do with elegance, what you have a problem with the proportion of investment, you have a problem with the shareholding structure, so you give us a period of time We will try it, not only the German government wants to review, the European Union also wants to review, probably by March and April 2022, the new German government also wanted to drag this matter off, and the pressure to drag it to the United States is not so great, Dragged to March and April, I let you North Stream II start to supply gas, but did not expect the Ukrainian war to break out, then obviously Nord Stream Ii can not breathe now, and even the United States is now thinking about it, let all his allies refuse to buy any russian energy, not only Nord Stream II do not ventilate, Nord Stream I also do not pass, and even some politicians in the United States clamor to turn this Nord Stream II into a pile of garbage, and it is obvious that the ukrainian war problem involves Merkel's second political legacy. That is the relationship with Russia, why does Russia want to fight Ukraine this time?
Russia has made it very clear, because after the United States wants to absorb Ukraine into NATO and turn Ukraine into a NATO protectorate, you may place a large number of American missiles on Ukrainian soil, which will make Russia's security a threat, so I have to start first, I want to militarize, I want to pull out Ukraine's teeth, so you can't hurt me.
But the question is why is this thing only now being operated? There is a very important reason is that Ukraine's accession to NATO is an impossible thing, why, Merkel does not agree, NATO and the European Union are very similar, to absorb a new member state, you have to agree to the majority or even all members, especially you have the weight of the member states you have to agree, the United States has to agree, the United Kingdom has to agree, France and Germany have to agree, otherwise you can't absorb the member states.
In fact, as early as 10 years ago, Ukraine proposed to join NATO, which was rejected by Merkel.
Merkel directly said that Ukraine's accession to NATO is not on the agenda at all, why, Germany does not want to, why does Germany not want to pull Ukraine in, causing Russia's relations with the whole of Europe to further collapse, Merkel is very accurate, why does the United States have to pull Ukraine in? Is that for the good of Ukraine? Of course not, that is to curb Russia's development, and even to dismember Russia one day, but the United States thinks so, why should Germany not tie itself to the American chariot?
Obviously, on the issue of Dealing with Russia, Merkel and several US presidents have the opposite attitude, especially today in the United States anti-Russian is absolutely politically correct, the Republican and Democratic parties often accuse each other of having a russian behavior, but Merkel and Putin have a very good relationship, in the past we have talked to you, Merkel and Putin are probably the longest-ruling modern leaders on the European continent.
Putin from the last day of 1999 to the present more than 20 years now, Merkel also served as German chancellor for sixteen or seventeen years, especially the two people have similar life experiences. Putin was born in St. Petersburg, joined the KGB when he was young, and worked in East Germany for a long time, while Merkel was born in East Germany and spent her university years in Moscow, so Putin and Merkel, two people, have a very deep understanding of each other's culture and language, and these two people can communicate without translation.
On the other hand, these two people have served as the top leaders of the country for many years, and their long-term exchanges have enabled them to have a very deep understanding of each other and establish mutual trust.
For the United States, it needs to set up an imaginary enemy like Russia, so that he can tell the countries of Europe, you see how powerful Russia is, they want to invade you at any time and anywhere. You have to be protected by the United States, the United States can continue to be the leader of NATO, the United States can rely on Europe, and the United States can use this to unite its Western allies.
But for Germany, is it necessary to create such an imaginary enemy as Russia? You must know that if the war is really fought, it will be Europe and not the United States that will suffer the most. This time the situation we can see very clearly, after the War in Ukraine, the euro fell sharply, the European stock market fell sharply, the European refugee crisis broke out, the European economy was in a mess, and the United States side could sit on the harvest, europe escaped funds, and in two days, the interest rate would be raised again, and the dollar would return to harvest Europe in an all-round way.
So Merkel saw it clearly that turning Russia into an enemy was an act that was good for the United States and not for Germany. On the other hand, to strengthen communication with Russia, on the one hand, the war cannot be fought, on the other hand, Russia's abundant energy will help the further development of the German economy. So during Merkel's presidency, Germany and Russia had a very good relationship, which is also a more important political legacy that Merkel left to his successor. Unfortunately, however, under the fire of the United States, these two political legacies have been broken, on the one hand, nord Stream II ventilation is far away, on the other hand, through this Ukrainian war, Germany has been completely tied to the American chariot.
How many times did the United States ask Merkel that year, saying that you Germany, your military expenditure is too low, your military expenditure accounts for not even 1% of GDP, I ask for more than 2%, Merkel is not moved, but after a war in Ukraine, the new German chancellor now immediately announced that the use of a special budget of 100 billion euros to arm Germany, and then every year after that, Germany's military expenditure will account for more than 2% of GDP, yes, the United States continued to exert pressure that year, Merkel put forward this and that demand, All were blocked back by Merkel, and then a war in Ukraine, the Americans were going to get all their demands.