According to statistics, in 2021, the total shipment of large-size interactive tablets Chinese mainland exceeded 2.02 million units, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year. This is already another "bumper year" in the period of rapid growth of the domestic interactive tablet market for more than ten consecutive years. Taking advantage of this trend, the achievements of the domestic interactive tablet industry in 2022 will surely reach a new peak, and there will be more "upgrades".
Watch point one: how the "98 inches" of the interactive market will develop in 2022
According to runto statistics, 2021 is the "starting year" of the official debut of the domestic interactive tablet industry "98 inches". The annual market demand is nearly 10,000 units. Although 98 inches has a limited proportion in the overall market, the industry still believes that the "interactive tablet market" has opened up to a large space.
On the one hand, in the education procurement market, the demand side of projection whiteboard continued to shrink in 2021, and 44,000 units were shipped in 2021, a sharp decline of 59.8% year-on-year. However, the proportion of its products over 90 inches has increased significantly, with sales reaching nearly 30,000 units, accounting for nearly 70% of the market. That is, from the perspective of the pattern of the projection whiteboard market, the demand for "interactive tablets" in the 90+ inch and 100-inch markets is real. At present, the sales of 98-inch LCD interactive tablets are limited, and more is its "cost and price are still high".
On the other hand, the history of the development of interactive tablet products is the history of "continuous large-scale". That is, the 85/86-inch products that account for the vast majority of the interactive tablet share of the business education market today have also grown steadily from only "10,000 units per year" sales. The size continues to grow, which is also in line with the development law of the LCD panel industry itself.
Therefore, if the 98-inch interactive tablet continues to grow more than double in 2022, or even faster growth, it will not surprise the industry. According to industry analysts, even if the 98-inch interactive tablet only occupies the market of "top high-end" demand in the interactive display market, its share ratio will exceed 5%, and the annual market demand will exceed 100,000-150,000+.
Watch point two: in 2022, can the LCD blackboard in the education market go through the "key inflection point"
After 2018, the education interaction market entered a "bottleneck period". Even in 2019, there was a contraction in the size of the market. In this context, how to innovate the "application value" of products and drive the development of new markets has become a fundamental task of the industry: among them, the LCD blackboard is placed high hopes.
The data shows that in 2021, the scale of LCD blackboard shipments in the domestic mainland market exceeded 400,000 units, an increase of 60.5% year-on-year. The innovative products of LCD blackboard that have been working hard for many years have finally ushered in an explosive trend. Industry research believes that in the future education interaction market, LCD blackboard will become the main form. Especially in the market period when the industry enters the market dominated by stock, the growth of liquid crystal blackboard is the decline in sales of traditional products: that is, the market ratio of 900,000 units of traditional interactive tablets and 400,000 units of electronic blackboards in 2021 will be shrinking day by day.
If the LCD blackboard still maintains a 60% increase in 2022, its market size is eager to reach 640,000 units, and the scale of traditional interactive tablets in the education market in the same period may decline to more than 700,000 units - the gap between the estimated number is not large: that is, 2022-2023 will be the education market, and the LCD blackboard will surpass the "key turning point" of the traditional interactive tablet.
Of course, whether the LCD blackboard can achieve a growth leap again is closely related to the price of its products. In this regard, the market share of infrared touch LCD blackboard has increased since 2021, and the cost of infrared touch is lower than that of capacitive touch, which is conducive to the popularization of low-priced LCD blackboard; at the same time, the large price reduction of LCD panels that began in mid-2021 is expected to further reduce the overall price of LCD blackboard in 2022, and the growth of capacity of capacitive touch products such as nano silver is also conducive to the decline in the average price of LCD blackboard products. That is, in 2022, the industry has a certain confidence in the growth of LCD blackboards with "hope".
Watch point three: in 2022, will the "increase in income" in the education market continue
In 2021, the overall market for educational interactive tablets shipped 1.36 million units, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year. Obviously, this is not a high-growth market pattern. Especially considering the shrinkage of the education interaction market in 2019 and the market downturn under the influence of the epidemic in 2020, the scale of the interactive tablet market in 2021 is actually basically flat compared with 2018.
However, due to the accelerated growth of LCD blackboards in 2021, the market share of 85/86 inch products has increased significantly. The industry sales data is still "very beautiful": that is, after 2018, the law of the education interaction market has changed from "quantitative growth" to "quality growth".
Larger screen display area, higher-end writing experiences such as capacitive touch, and more complex integrated installations such as LCD chalkboards: these three points form the key to the increase in "sales" in the education market. However, there are also some new changes starting in 2021: such as the increase in the proportion of low-price infrared touch products in the LCD blackboard, and the decline in the price of large-size lcd display products.
Especially in 2022, it is expected that even if a larger size product such as 98 inches grows explosively, the market share will not increase significantly, and it will not be able to bear the pulling capacity of the previous 85/86 inches rise on the terminal price; coupled with the second half of 2021, the price of 85/86 inch liquid crystal displays will accelerate to decline, and the cost of large-size touch products will also decline with the expansion of production capacity; the growth rate of LCD blackboards has reached a very high peak in 2021, and it will be more difficult to further break through in 2022... As a result of these factors, some industry analysts believe that the "sales" growth rate of interactive devices in the education industry in 2022 will decline compared with 2021. ——In the next few years, the incremental dividend brought about by the "quality growth" of the education interaction market will gradually decrease is a high probability trend.
Watch point four: can vocational education continue to "hold the bull's ear" in 2022
The increasing saturation of the education industry has made the education interactive equipment market constantly looking for new points: in 2021, the vocational education market will ship more than 180,000 units, accounting for more than 13% of the market, which together with early childhood education constitutes a "new growth point".
Industry analysis believes that the extension of the number of years of education has replaced the "peak number" of newborns and school children, as well as the popularization of interactive teaching, and has become a "market stabilizer" for the procurement of interactive equipment in the new education industry. That is, from the earlier K9 just needed, to the K12 just needed to be included in the popularization of higher education, to the K15 just need of early childhood education, and now the new demand for vocational education has been added.
This growth in the total demand of the education industry is the key to the growth of the interactive tablet education market. The industry expects that if the shipment of educational interactive tablets continues to increase significantly in 2022, it will inevitably rely on the incremental promotion of "vocational education". Especially in the context of the projection whiteboard in the interactive teaching market has only a fraction of the share, the market increase of interactive tablets is no longer possible to continue to rely on the "tiger's mouth" from the "projection" mouth in 2022 as before.
This determines the increase of the education interactive tablet market in 2022, and more depends on the development of the vocational education market. Industry insiders generally expect that the growth of demand for vocational education can steadily support the scale of the industry until the peak of the stock formed by K12 education's previous policy-based procurement has reached the "replacement period".
Highlight five: In 2022, the "rules" of the business market will change qualitatively
Interactive tablet industry, the highlight of the growth of the past two years, in addition to the LCD blackboard in the education market, it is necessary to increase the demand of the business conference market.
From 2020 to 2021, under the epidemic, the remote office market broke out, and the demand for interactive tablets in the conference market continued to exceed 50%. In 2021, shipments of commercial interactive tablets reached 664,000 units, up 53.6% year-on-year.
The growth of commercial interactive tablets in 2021 is a key moment: that is, the scale of interactive tablets in the commercial market exceeds that of business projector products for the first time. ——Remote meeting, the visual effect demand under the camera, so that the advantages of liquid crystal display over projection display are particularly obvious, market demand has produced a drastic qualitative change, thereby promoting the business display market technology competition pattern changes.
However, there is another layer of qualitative changes hidden in the commercial interactive tablet market in 2021: that is, the proportion of the "epidemic" factor in the growth of the industry this year. The main credit for the industry outbreak in 2020 is attributed to the epidemic, and the industry can basically reach a consensus; however, the sudden consumption of the epidemic in 2021 should have entered a "decline period". At this time, the business interaction tablet still maintains "high-speed growth", and the increment is significantly higher than that of 2020, which inevitably requires a new explanation.
In this regard, some analysts believe that the growth of business interactive tablets in 2021 will benefit more from the popularity trend of "smart conference" and "smart office", and benefit from customer recognition of new equipment productivity - rather than the sudden consumption brought about by the epidemic. This logic will also continue to support the further rapid growth of business interactive tablets in 2022. In other words, the growth performance of the business interaction tablet in 2022 will be the key to testing the internal logic of the industry's growth: because the business interaction tablet in 2022 will no longer be able to talk about the "epidemic surprise consumption". After two years of market consumption, the commercial interactive tablet space for the sudden consumption of the epidemic has basically been exhausted.
Watch point six: In 2022, whether commercial interactive tablets can impact 1 million units
From 2020 to 2021, the growth rate of commercial interactive tablets exceeded 50% for two consecutive years, and the market size reached 664,000 units. If the market still maintains a 50% growth rate in 2022, its market size is eager to hit the 1 million unit mark.
However, most people in the industry are generally conservative about this goal. Most analysts in the industry believe that the business interactive tablet market size in 2022 will be about 850,000 units. That is, the increase will decrease significantly, and the absolute increment will not increase significantly. The core basis of this theory is that the previous market size of "business projectors" peaked at more than one million units. Business interactive tablets have an alternative effect on business projectors, but they are not completely market alternatives.
However, there is also another voice that emphasizes the fact of "being ignored": that is, the fundamental logic of the business interactive tablet market is the development of smart office and the development of smart business display. Among them, a considerable part of the office display needs that previously used color TV products or simple large-screen LCD monitors will also be converted into "commercial interactive tablets". The growth space of this part of the market should not be ignored.
At the same time, with the increase of mainland market entities and the improvement of the level of informatization of business activities of market entities, the market demand scale of commercial display has been increasing. In particular, the development of the innovation economy and the service economy, the demand for conference room informatization to promote the role, more than the traditional manufacturing economy; among them, small and micro enterprises to accelerate innovation and development and attach importance to the improvement of management efficiency, the demand for high-end information office display equipment increased significantly. This structural demand growth should also be considered within the market demand for commercial interactive tablets.
That is, the market increment of commercial interactive tablets should be "more complex" than the product demand structure of the "market peak" of commercial projectors in the past. This is conducive to the sustained high growth of business interactive tablet products for a longer period of time.
Watch point seven: Can the interactive display color TV brands in 2022 be stronger?
Whether it is the dispute over more entry into the stock of the education interactive display market or the rapid rise of the commercial market, it is changing the brand pattern of the "interactive display" industry:
In 2021, the education interactive tablet market, in the context of the total growth of only 7.5%, Changhong became the fastest growing brand in 2021 with a year-on-year growth rate of 52%, followed by Hisense with a growth rate of 18%. In addition, Skyworth's LCD blackboard subdivision achieved the fastest growth in the same period, with an increase of 88%. Skyworth and Hisense ranked third and fourth respectively after Hitevision in the education tablet market.
In 2021, the brand situation in the commercial interactive tablet market is more complicated. In 2021, Huawei will leap to the second position in the market with a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 160%, accounting for more than 11% of the market. Hisense, Haoli and Skyworth became the top 5 brands. At the same time, ICT companies accounted for 16% of the commercial interactive tablets, the market share increased by 3 percentage points, and the sales volume increased by more than 80%. In the commercial interactive tablet market, the share of more so-called professional display brands fell by half in 2021, and in the context of a sharp increase in industry sales of 50%, the sales of this part of the long-tail brand fell by almost 20%.
Of course, whether it is education or business interactive display market, the two major brands of Seeyuan, Seewo and MAXHUB, are still strong and stable in the championship and continue to maintain their leading position in the industry. Especially in the business market, its share has increased again. However, this does not prevent the accelerated rise of other brands, especially color TV brands, on the two lines of education and business. The industry also expects that in 2022, the proportion of color TV brands in the entire interactive display industry will increase, Hisense, Skyworth, TCL, Changhong, Huawei and other brands will appear more frequently in the market and rankings, the synergy effect of the industrial chain of professional display and color TV display will continue to enlarge, the industry market will also enter the era of scale is king, market concentration is inevitable, and more small professional display brands may be eliminated.
In summary, the interaction in 2022 shows that the market continues to grow, upgrades continue, and more changes occur. This year, the industry is destined not to be "silent", with the help of LCD blackboards and the rise of the commercial market, more brands are planning the strategy of "overtaking in curves". As the third high-speed growth year in these two segments, the results of 2022 will play a decisive role in the future market position of these brands, and it is also the "decisive stage" of their overtaking strategy. In 2022, the interactive display industry "drama" can be expected.