There is no doubt that new energy vehicles were the "most beautiful boys" in the entire A-share market last year. By this year, its ferocious upward momentum had receded somewhat.
On the evening of March 3, BYD, the leader of A-share new energy vehicles, disclosed the February production and sales express report. According to the announcement, IND's sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 88,000 units in February, up 753% year-on-year from 10,400 units in the same period last year. From January to February, BYD's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 181,500 units, an increase of 494.28% year-on-year.
On the one hand, the sales of new energy vehicles have soared, on the other hand, their stock prices have continued to fall, and some investors can't help but ask: "Can new energy vehicle stocks still be bought?" ”
BYD shares have fallen more than 13 percent this year.
BYD new energy vehicles in February
Sales surge 753%
At the beginning of 2022, there was a fierce competition between traditional car companies and new car-making forces. BYD is one of the leading enterprises in domestic new energy vehicles, and its sales situation reflects the prosperity of the current new energy automobile industry to a certain extent.
According to BYD's latest February production and sales report, BYD's new energy vehicle sales in February were 88,000 units, a 753% year-on-year increase. From January to February, BYD's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 181,400 units, an increase of 494.28% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles in February was 43,200 units, and the sales of plug-in hybrid models were 44,300 units.
Some insiders said: "This year, the BYD Han family models will further grow. In February, the flagship sedan Han sold 9,290 units, and the EV model increased by 118.1% year-on-year. At present, Han is also the only model in the domestic medium and large car market that can be comparable to the sales of Mercedes-Benz E-Class, BMW 5 Series and Audi A6L. The upcoming Han DM-i is likely to raise Han's sales to a new height. ”
In addition to BYD, according to the latest production and sales reports of various car companies, SAIC Motor's new energy vehicle sales reached 45,000 units in February, an increase of 48.42% year-on-year; GAC Aian delivered 8,526 units, an increase of 163% year-on-year. In terms of new car-making forces, WEILAI, Xiaopeng and Ideal delivered 6131 vehicles, 6225 vehicles and 8414 vehicles in February, respectively, an increase of 9.9%, 180% and 265.8% respectively year-on-year.
The sharp increase in sales of new energy vehicles is partly related to the successive rise in international oil prices. Affected by the continuous escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, domestic refined oil prices have ushered in "four consecutive increases" this year. No. 92 gasoline in most parts of the country has officially entered the "8 yuan era". According to the general household car fuel tank 50L capacity calculation, a full tank of No. 92 gasoline will cost an additional 10 yuan, and a full tank of No. 95 gasoline will cost 11 yuan more.
Oil prices have risen, and "some people are happy and some people are sad". "Happy" is the new energy car owner, "worried" is the fuel car owner. In the context of the continuous rise in oil prices, some fuel owners frankly said: "If the price increases again, you will not be able to afford to drive fuel vehicles." Some new energy car owners calmly said: "Don't drive (fuel vehicles) early, and oil prices will rise casually." "Some people have calculated that if the conventional maintenance costs of the vehicle are included, the annual cost of electric vehicles will save nearly 10,000 yuan compared with fuel vehicles." At this stage, the sales of new energy vehicles at this stage are leading, which is relatively understandable.
Sales soared vs stock prices fell
Can new energy auto stocks still be bought?
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are booming, and the prosperity is relatively high, which is a fact recognized by all parties; on the other hand, the stock price of new energy vehicle stocks has continued to decline since this year, and it is no longer as widely sought after by the capital market as last year, which is also a fact.
Or take BYD as an example. Since the beginning of this year, the stock price of this A/H new energy vehicle leading stock has fallen by more than 13% (after the february production and sales report, it fell more than 5% intraday yesterday), but its increase in 2021 is 38%, and it is as high as 308% in 2020.
A similar situation occurred in the Ningde era, the king of the new energy automobile industry chain and the "first brother of the ChiNext board". The stock has fallen more than 16 percent this year, with gains of 68 percent in 2021 and 231 percent in 2020, respectively. According to the latest data, allianz Shenzhou A-share Fund, the largest overseas Chinese equity fund, reduced its holdings in Ningde Times in January, with a reduction of 10.56%.
Why is there such a stark contrast in new energy vehicle stocks? The answer lies in the valuation of new energy vehicle stocks. The investment consultant of the relevant securities company in Hangzhou analyzed: "After a sharp rise in stock prices in the past two years, the valuation of new energy vehicles is generally not cheap. The expectation of the high prosperity of new energy vehicles has been included in the stock price accordingly. In addition, the regressive subsidies for new energy vehicles and the increase in the price of upstream raw materials are the reasons for the current decline in the stock price of new energy vehicles. "Last year's top 20 funds, more than half of the new energy theme related, to last year's stock base champion Qianhai open source fund Cui Chenlong as an example, last year's two new energy theme funds at the helm - Qianhai Open Source Utilities Stocks, Qianhai Open Source New Economy Hybrid A, have doubled their returns, and now these early hot "track stocks" are generally facing a process of valuation regression.
So, can new energy auto stocks still be bought? This is a question based on the degree of industry conviction. To put it bluntly, it depends on how optimistic you are about the new energy industry chain in the future. On March 1, Qianhai Open Source Fund issued an announcement that the company's fund manager Cui Chenlong had recently invested in the subscription of Qianhai Open Source Utility Shares, Qianhai Open Source Emerging Industry Mix, and Qianhai Open Source New Economy Mix 500,000 yuan each, totaling 1.5 million yuan, and the holding period was not less than 1 year. For the reasons for self-purchase, Cui Chenlong said: "On the one hand, it is considering that the fund has opened a purchase limit, on the other hand, it is considering that there are more recent pullbacks in the new energy sector, but the industry fundamentals are excellent, and the short-term market trend deviates from the fundamentals of the plate, so the current or better medium- and long-term layout opportunities." ”
Zhong Shuai, manager of Huaxia Mesozoic Fund, also said: "The entire new energy industry chain I am still relatively optimistic, after a sharp rise in the past two years, many companies in the new energy sector have relatively high valuations, and transactions are more crowded, and a large number of public fund positions in the whole market are concentrated in this industry." So, when the market fluctuates, it kills down. However, after the adjustment of this period of time, the valuation of new energy, especially the new energy vehicle industry chain, has actually reached a relatively reasonable and comfortable position, and now it should at least be a relatively medium-term bottom. ”
Zhong Shuai added: "We invest in the new energy automobile industry more to see that at least at this point in time, its industrialization and technology have achieved a state similar to or even very close to the fuel vehicle." And we can also see the continuous technological progress behind, such as this year's 1,000-kilometer new energy vehicles can basically come out. The high degree of intelligence of automobiles has also made rapid progress, and domestic new energy products have indeed allowed everyone to see and feel the development of the state of doing better and better in the direction. We need to pay more attention to what level of penetration of new energy vehicles in China or the world is at present? Is there still a huge amount of room? Is the level of penetration going up? Will this curve change smoothly or rise rapidly? When you have more understanding of the big picture of an industry, and you have confidence, everything else is a short-term perturbation. ”
Orange Persimmon Interactive City Express reporter Lin Sinan