Written by / Zhang Ou
Editor/ Zhang Linyu
Design / Shi Yuchao
Source/Shifted by CHRIS O'BRIEN
While self-driving cars continue to grab headlines, few people pay attention to the self-driving shuttles that have been silently appearing in some airports or small towns. In the near future, these shuttles will become the most promising application scenarios in the field of autonomous driving.
Another, lesser-known anecdote: European companies are pioneers in this space compared to other tracks.
Shuttle buses may account for 40% of the autonomous driving market
Over the past decade, the development of autonomous vehicles has been an eternal topic.
But soon, there was a slow development of technology in this area and a lack of clear business models, while traditional car companies and startups became very interested in long-haul trucks, hoping that the technology could solve the driver shortage and cost maintenance problems faced by the already low-profit industry.
The compromise between the two models is the shuttle.
Self-driving shuttles are mostly box-shaped, capable of carrying 12 to 15 people, and are practical in design and function. They usually follow fixed routes, often in non-public spaces such as entertainment centers, warehouses, airports, or small neighborhoods. Such areas reduce variables and obstacles on the road and are able to provide convenient and economical services.
According to data firm Global Market Insights, the self-driving bus market will exceed $1 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 19% from 2022 to 2028.
According to a recent Boston Consulting Group (BCG) study on the future of transportation in large cities, self-driving shuttles may have a greater impact than emerging forms of transportation, such as micromodels such as scooters, in terms of safety, reduced emissions and congestion, health, and degradation.
The Boston Consulting Group expects 10 million self-driving cars to be on the road by 2035, including as many as 4 million autonomous shuttles.
"Shuttles meet a wide range of needs between large buses and passenger cars." Nikolaus Lang, director of BCG's Center for Mobility Innovation, said, "These buses are smaller and enable more flexible routes and closer to passengers. Their economies of scale can also provide a wider space for other transportation systems. ”
Navya
Europe: A more pragmatic strategy
In the early days, many European companies saw shuttles as a more practical market than passenger cars, and it was clearly more feasible to target the L4 than the ambitious L5 (L4: no one intervened, but there were still certain restrictions on the route of travel).
While autonomous shuttles are still in the process of moving towards large-scale commercialization, this market can serve as an example of how Europe is taking advantage of its underappreciated advantages to break out of the transport revolution.
Olivier Pairot, director of product and marketing at French shuttle company EasyMile, said: "In Europe, no one was targeting the L5 in the beginning like many other players. Shuttle companies in Europe are more pragmatic, and they know how important a clear and viable business model is. ”
Target L4's strategy complements Europe's other strengths – the central role of public transport, more aggressive emissions reduction targets, a clearer regulatory roadmap, and subsidy policies in different countries.
In more and more large european cities, there is a greater demand for new forms of clean transport, especially in the form of close connections. In contrast, American cities are still more fragmented, and the car culture that has accumulated for many years has long been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.
Both France and Germany have passed regulations that allow the deployment of L4 autonomous vehicles. While no more EU member states have yet to follow the rule, support for autonomous driving is also absolutely optimistic in countries such as the UK, Northern Europe and Estonia.
U.S. automakers face intricate regulations in every state. Even in California, where self-driving car testing regulations are the most advanced, it can be difficult for companies to actually deploy self-driving cars in public areas.
Exit olli (Local Motors)
Major U.S. players who are retired from the tournament
Europe and the United States are heading in the opposite direction on the track of self-driving shuttles.
Optimus Ride, a Boston-based self-driving shuttle company, has previously raised $76 million in venture capital. Canadian auto parts giant Magna announced the acquisition of most of the teams behind Optimus Ride in early January 2022 and said it would halt the development of shuttles.
Just a few days later, Phoenix-based shuttle maker Local Motors announced its closure. Local Motors has been pouring $15.3 million into the development and marketing of its self-driving shuttle called Olli. The company's development and manufacturing process was a highlight — using open-source tools for 3D printing and microfactories.
Of course, thanks to high-tech and ultra-luxury capital injections, there are still some strong competitors in the United States.
In terms of technology development and deployment, May Mobility, based in Michigan, is probably the closest to its European counterparts. The company is working with Toyota Motor to develop a shuttle service.
May Mobility has deployed 25 shuttles in five U.S. cities, capable of transporting passengers to tourist destinations, around university campuses, or planned neighborhoods. May Mobility just raised $83 million in funding, bringing the total to $166 million.
May Mobility used a Toyota Sienna minivan carrying 8 passengers on its autonomous shuttle
Finally, it's impossible not to mention the potentially strongest competitor from the United States, the San Francisco-based Cruise Company. The company has raised $13 billion in financing.
Cruise is controlled by U.S. auto giant General Motors, which offers a $5 billion line of credit. Cruise also raised $2.25 billion from the SoftBank Vision Fund, $750 million from Walmart and $2.75 billion from Honda.
Cruise launched Anigin, an autonomous shuttle built from scratch in 2020, but it can only carry 4-5 passengers. Origin's goal is to start actual production sometime in 2022.
In April 2021, Cruise signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia to deploy the first Origin shuttles there in 2023, with a long-term goal of reaching 4,000 by 2030. Cruise did not provide any other details about its overall target market or usage case.
Origin self-driving shuttle bus
The real head race is in France
The current head race for self-driving shuttles is between two French companies – Navya and EasyMile.
Both companies, founded in 2014, are strong enough to claim to be market leaders, and in their own way reveal the enormous challenges the market still faces.
By the end of 2021, for example, Navya had sold more than 200 Autonomom shuttles in 23 countries. It also has a testing and manufacturing center near Detroit. Navia is currently preparing for large-scale marketing of its L4 shuttles. Despite being publicly listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, Navya has also experienced its own woes.
In January 2022, Navya appointed its third CEO in five years, Sophie Desormière. She worked for automotive supplier Valeo, one of Navia's largest shareholders.
In February, Navya reported revenue of 10.2 million euros in 2021, down slightly from 10.6 million euros in 2020, as the number of newly sold shuttles fell from 23 to 19.
Still, De Soumier remains bullish on the self-driving shuttle market, and she is confident in the strong support of public transport agencies and European governments. The French government has provided Navina with a €7.5 million grant to promote the development of its L4 shuttle; Navya has negotiated another €29 million credit facility.
Navya's Autonomic shuttle
EasyMile, on the other hand, has focused on the L4 since its inception. It successfully raised €55 million in April 2021, with 180 more shuttles being deployed in actual operations or pilot projects.
The company reached an important milestone in January 2022 when it became the first company in Europe to deploy L4 shuttles on the open roads of Toulouse, France. It transports employees from the Oncopole Cancer Research Center from a remote parking lot to work alongside other cars, bicycles, pedestrians and buses on the road.
Although France's latest L4 self-driving regulations won't take effect until this summer, EasyMile has received a special exemption to roll out early.
Its marketing director, Parrott, said: "In France and across Europe, the legal framework is evolving quite quickly and it is really important for participants to know what the country expects and demands of them. Only by knowing the rules can you move forward more efficiently. ”
An EasyMile autonomous shuttle transports passengers to the Oncopole Cancer Centre in Toulouse, France
EasyMile and Navina also have one thing in common, and they both make a key adjustment: Over the past two years, they have applied autonomous technology to the autonomous transportation of goods.
In 2020, EasyMile launched an autonomous tractor called TraceEasy that can tow Lee at airports or haul parts in warehouses. While preparing for large-scale commercialization in 2022, customers may intend to order 100 or more vehicles, not just one or two for testing.
Parrott believes there will be more similar mass adoption in the shuttle market in two or three years.
In addition to these two French overlords, Europe also has three autonomous shuttle participants that should not be underestimated:
ZF/2getthere, founded in 1984, is headquartered in Germany/Netherlands.
ZF/2getthere's autonomous shuttle
German auto parts giant ZF acquired Netherlands-based 2getthere in 2019 for an undisclosed amount. Founded in 1984 and deployed its first self-driving shuttle in 1997, 2getthere also speaks volumes about how long European companies have been focused on this segment.
From the beginning, the company focused on self-driving cars for public transportation, which are deployed in six cities and airports.
Under ZF's leadership, 2getthere continues to develop vehicles, including a 22-passenger shuttle and a 6-person taxi, with an eye towards serving limited-use, urban areas with special vehicular access in enclosed areas, rural areas and reused rail lines.
Sensible 4, founded in 2017, is headquartered in Finland.
Sensible 4 autonomous shuttle in Helsinki, Finland
The company, which has raised €6.3 million, is currently developing its own GACHA shuttle, as well as an autonomous system for the Toyota Proace minivan. The shuttles have undergone some pilot operations in Finland, hoping to commercialize the technology in 2023, and currently major customers include Swiss, German, Norwegian and Japanese companies.
In addition, Sensible 4 sells an autonomous driving kit that enables other automakers to convert their vehicles to autonomous driving.
Auve, founded in 2017, is headquartered in Estonia.
An Auve hydrogen shuttle in Tallinn, Estonia
The eight-seat Auve shuttle, fueled by hydrogen, was developed in collaboration with the University of Tartu. Last summer, the first version of the shuttle was unveiled at the university, with Kersti Kaljulaid, Estonia's fifth president, also participating in the test ride.