Source: Health Times reporter Xu Tingting Wang Aibing
Zhang Boli, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, member of the medical treatment expert group of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, and Wang Guiqiang, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of the First Hospital of Peking University, and many other experts revealed to the Health Times reporter that the mainland's dynamic zeroing policy is still the most effective means in the short term.
Academician Zhang Boli pointed out that China is a country with a small number of new confirmed cases in the world and the largest number of vaccinations in the world, and it is not easy for a large country with a population of 1.4 billion to effectively control the epidemic. The mainland has always adhered to the strategy of "internal defense rebound, external defense input" and "dynamic clearance, precise prevention and control" is successful, ensuring the people's life and health, but also ensuring economic and social stability and development, comprehensive judgment, our cost-benefit ratio is the best, but also highlights the mainland's institutional advantages and scientific decision-making, the mainland epidemic prevention and control will always put the people's life and health safety first.
On February 28, citizens of Hohhot City pasted the tenth round of nucleic acid test vouchers. Photo by Liu Lei, Xinhua News Agency
The team of Huang Jianping, head of the global prediction system for the new crown pneumonia epidemic at Lanzhou University, simulated the epidemic situation in the country under uncontrolled conditions. The results show that when the mainland fully relaxes epidemic prevention measures, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the country is expected to be about 10.24 million after the end of a round of epidemics.
Huang Jianping told the Health Times reporter, "Under the current epidemic situation at home and abroad, the mainland's external defense import, internal defense rebound general strategy and dynamic zero general policy are still the best solutions to deal with the global new crown pneumonia epidemic, but it can be properly accurately prevented and controlled." ”
A simulation of the development trend of the epidemic after the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures across the country
Liu Jue, a researcher at the Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics at the School of Public Health of Peking University and a member of the National Expert Group on Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia of the National Health Commission, told the Health Times reporter that it is necessary to continue to adhere to the dynamic zeroing policy for a period of time.
"Our team tracked the policies of other countries, and in fact the interventions are still in use, but restrictions on social distancing and travel restrictions have been removed." Liu Jue said that the proportion of elderly people in the mainland is high, there are many basic diseases, the risk of death is high, and the mainland's medical and health resources are difficult to deal with in the short term when there is a large-scale epidemic in China, which is very easy to cause a run on medical and health resources and affect social stability.
Wu Ming, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and director of the Department of Health Policy and Management of the School of Public Health of Peking University, told reporters, "There are many "unknowns" in the original understanding of the new crown virus, and the variability is strong, and there are more unknowable and uncertain factors, and the experience of other countries or regions has proved that the epidemic will lead to a large number of deaths, long-term harm to health after-effects, and if there is no sufficient evidence that 'there is no great harm', people's life safety and health should not be 'risked'. ”
"The big policy of dynamic zero clearance cannot be adjusted, but individual measures can be more accurate", Liu Yu suggested, using big data technology to assist in more accurate and small-scale prevention and control.
Wu Ming believes that taking any strategy against the epidemic has both advantages and disadvantages, but comparing the strategies of various countries, whether it is from the perspective of economic development, social stability or the impact on people's livelihood and the operation of the medical system, the dynamic zeroing strategy is the best. Of course, large-scale nucleic acid testing will lead to increased investment, sealing and control measures will have an impact on the economy and residents' lives in a local and short period of time, it is recommended that on the basis of improving the ability to adjust the flow, local government governance and community governance capabilities, a more accurate prevention and control policy should be adopted, and the prevention and control cost should be reduced as much as possible under the premise of ensuring the prevention and control effect, so as to maximize the effectiveness of prevention and control.