Will the Ukraine crisis trigger a conflict in the Taiwan Strait? American scholars believe that it has sounded an alarm bell for cross-strait relations, but if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, it should not be Chinese mainland take the initiative to provoke it.
Recently, many people, including some scholars and government officials, have linked the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Some people believe that Chinese mainland may take advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to launch a war against Taiwan and complete the great cause of reunification in one fell swoop. Some people also declared that "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow," and threw out the argument that the United States will "abandon Taiwan, which is demagogic.
Zhu Zhiqun, a professor of international relations and political science at Bucknell University in the United States, wrote that these views are based on a misconception about the differences between Ukraine and Taiwan, the global strategy of the United States, and China's domestic and foreign affairs. Of course, it is not excluded that some people will use the Ukrainian crisis to allude to the situation in the Taiwan Strait, deliberately escalate the confrontation in the Taiwan Strait, create tension, highlight the threat of Chinese mainland, and make the Taiwan people more "anti-China."
The author believes that although Ukraine and Taiwan are at the forefront of the confrontation between the United States and Russia and the United States and China, their background and current situation are two different cases in international politics.
Although Russia and Ukraine are both part of the former Soviet Union, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they are completely independent and not subordinate to each other, and they are also two independent sovereign states recognized by the international community, including the United Nations. Russia may have a different view on this, but it cannot change this basic fact. Taiwan is not a sovereign and independent country, and there is no so-called "one China, one Taiwan." Although the two sides of the strait have been divided for more than 70 years, the two sides of the strait have not completely cut off. Russian-Ukrainian relations are international relations, and the relations between the two sides of the strait are unique and are currently in a state of division, and there will be no immediate reunification, and Taiwan will not be "de jure independent." In the final analysis, the contradictions between the two sides of the strait are caused by the fact that the Chinese civil war has not really ended.
The authors say that China's main task at present is the problem of internal development, not the rush to reunification. The Chinese government's position on the Taiwan Strait issue has been consistent for a long time and will not change because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. China is handling cross-strait relations in accordance with its own plan, and it is impossible to take the opportunity to reunify Taiwan by force because the United States and Russia have contradictions. Beijing's policy toward Taiwan is still to adhere to peaceful reunification, expand cross-strait exchanges, and win the hearts and minds of the people in Taiwan. Non-peaceful means will be resorted only as a last resort. Moreover, Beijing believes that the time and the situation are on its side, and there is no internal and external pressure to unify in the short term.
The author believes that if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait in the end, it should not be provoked by Chinese mainland on its own initiative. As for some scholars in the United States, whether the US Government should abandon "strategic ambiguity" and change to "strategic clarity" on the Taiwan Strait issue is a completely useless discussion and a false topic. Because in the event of an outbreak of a war in the Taiwan Strait, the PLA has long taken into account the intervention of the US military and is not affected by the "strategic ambiguity" or "strategic clarity" of the US side. In other words, once the Platon Decides to Attack Taiwan, no external force can deter or stop it. Of course, the overwhelming majority of people, including compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the people of China and the United States, do not want war to break out in the Taiwan Strait.
However, the author points out that the conflict in Ukraine has sounded a wake-up call for cross-strait relations: peace is precious and the danger of war remains. As far as the two sides of the strait are concerned, the biggest challenge is how to resume exchanges and avoid shooting off the gun. It is hoped that the Chinese on both sides of the strait will use wisdom to resolve differences between the two sides and keep the war far away from the Taiwan Strait. #俄一票否决联合国涉乌决议 China Abstains ##Several Rumors and Truths of the Russo-Ukrainian War##Wang Yi Expounds China's Five-Point Position on the Ukraine Issue#Headlines
