Welcome to the column.
Today's sanctions against Russia in the Western world are a strong wave, and we are all wondering, will such sanctions completely break the integration of the world economy? In the future, the whole world will become one economic island after another? How harsh do you think U.S. sanctions are now? Russia's central finance has more than $600 billion in foreign exchange reserves, including gold, euros, dollars, and renminbi, more than half of which are stored in Russia and half of which are stored in major banks overseas.
Now many governments, led by the United States, have withheld more than $300 billion. No way, because Russia you went to fight Ukraine, so you have to give you this money to buckle, and it may even be confiscated in the future. Like Zelenskiy is now clamoring that this money can't do anything else, and that in the future Ukraine will have to use Russia's more than $300 billion.
Of course, it is not only the 300 billion foreign exchange reserves of the Russian central finance that have been deducted, but also Russia's many overseas investments, and the various assets of Russia's individual rich people abroad. The U.S. and the West are very cool to deduct, so much money. But the problem is that this is a bad precedent, that is, one country's government can arbitrarily deduct all the overseas assets of another country, or even confiscate and divide them.
The United States is actually already doing this, the Afghan government had about $7 billion in the United States, and now the United States has withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan, the United States does not recognize the current Taliban government, simply you have 7 billion dollars I froze for you. Now not only is it frozen, the U.S. government says that I confiscated $3 billion, which I used to compensate the families of the victims of 911 that year, and $3.5 billion that I took out to make a fund to do some humanitarian relief work in the future. But the question is this money is your American? If the United States dares to do this to Afghanistan and the United States dares to do this to Russia, then the United States will not do the same to other countries in the future.
Conversely, when many countries realize that it is not safe for me to have money overseas, what do you think those countries will do? For example, gold reserves should not be placed in the United States, and a large number of foreign exchange bonds should not exist in foreign banks, because once there is a wind, sorry, this money is not your money, this money is going to be deducted. That's why I say this will be detrimental to the world economy in the future.
The United States, you can't say that you only play with dozens of countries in the West, there are 200 countries and regions in the world, and those other countries must be careful when calculating their overseas assets, I must not provoke the United States, one day I provoke the United States, I can't get this asset back. On the other hand, what if the United States takes the initiative to find me? So why should I withdraw as many assets as possible, which is good for economic globalization?
Not only the problem of overseas assets, but also the sanctions imposed on Russia in the Western world today are simply useless. For example, the simplest Coca-Cola can't be sold in Russia, McDonald's can't be opened in Russia, and Starbucks has closed all his stores. The Western world seems to think that everything from food, clothing, shelter and transportation to high-tech products can no longer be sold to Russia.
Not only that, but they don't buy Russian stuff either. They don't want Russian gas, they don't want Russian oil, they don't want Russian caviar, Russia's king crab, they don't want Russian vodka. Yes, they want to be economically insulated from Russia, but Russia obviously has countermeasures, you don't buy my oil is hard currency, the world needs energy countries, I can sell it to other countries? I don't charge dollars, I can collect other currencies, and even if I don't collect money, I can barter.
Russia today is like a local tycoon, I am a mine owner, I am next to the mine, I dig up all kinds of energy and grain anytime and anywhere, am I still afraid that I can't sell it? On the other hand, if those multinational companies withdraw from Russia, can't the Russian people enjoy it? McDonald's, for example, actually sells very simple products, bread with beef patties, vegetables, and a little salad dressing is a burger. Yes, McDonald's has its own intellectual property rights, McDonald's has its own unique formula, but the problem is that when You McDonald's withdrew itself, Russia immediately announced that I sent someone to take over, and all mcDonald's assets in russia were nationalized, and then changed the name to continue to sell hamburgers.
Now McDonald's employs basically Russian citizens, and the milk, bread, bacon, and beef used are all produced in Russia, just to change the name of McDonald's. Every year you can make a lot of money, now it's good, people are nationalized, McDonald's continues to sell, even if someone says that Coca-Cola and Pepsi can't sell, it doesn't matter, is there no other Coke product?
Even we Chinese people say that very Coke can we seize this opportunity to sell in Russia now? Not only that, but for a long time the Western world has established various technical barriers, many products are developed by people first, and then they can sit and collect patent fees. Now Russia has announced, since you have sanctioned me, since we are economically insulated, then we simply do not recognize all the patent fees in the Western world. From the small trademark character image, to the patent of various industrial products, there is no need to pay patent fees.
No way, Russia is also a kind of self-help, these two days also came out a news, there are many aircraft financial leasing companies in the West to say to Russia, I have to return the aircraft to me, what is the matter? Many airline business development is very fast, let them buy the aircraft in full may not be so well-funded, so the world aviation industry has this financial leasing habit, there are some companies that spend money to buy the aircraft, and then lease to the airline to use their own rent, so kill two birds with one stone.
Financial leasing companies have funds, financial leasing companies' assets can maintain and increase in value, and airlines can expand their capacity to own a very large number of aircraft. So far, more than 500 aircraft in the Western world have been leased to Russia's major airlines, and now this is not to be sanctioned? These financial leasing companies also said, we originally signed the contract, 3 years and 5 years, now I tore up the contract, because you went to beat people, so I want to sanction you, so I ask you to return all the planes to me within a time limit.
If Russian airlines really return these planes, Russia's civil aviation industry will stop, and how will Aeroflot carry passengers without aircraft? More crucially, these Western financial leasing companies want to think that due to the war, the routes between Russia and the Western world have all stopped, and not a single plane can fly over. Let's not say that it is impossible, even if the Russian airlines want to return this aircraft to you now, you can't ship it, of course, on the other hand, this contract period has not yet arrived, why do you let me return it to you now?
So the Russian central government is now ordering that the major airlines do not need to return these aircraft to the financial leasing companies, you continue to use them in a down-to-earth manner, and the Russian central government will help you escort them. To be honest, this is more or less a helpless move. You tear up the contract first, my planes can't be used, and the people in my country need to use these planes, so I will simply do a little hooliganism, I will register these planes as my own, who let you break the contract first?
In fact, the first two days there was a similar thing, what? Russia borrows a lot abroad, and these debts have been repaid in dollars or issued new bonds to repay old debts when they have matured. In the current state, on the one hand, the Western world has seized all of Russia's overseas assets, on the other hand, it is impossible for you to issue new bonds, and no bank can undertake it. So Russia is faced with a dilemma of not being able to repay its foreign debt. People in Russia said it doesn't matter, I didn't borrow dollar debt? Anyway, the ruble is printed by my central bank, and I will print as much as I want, and I will return it to you, and the rubles that have been printed will not cause further inflation in my country, because it is very simple that those countries have all been declared unfriendly by Russia.
If individual enterprises in unfriendly countries want to do business with Russia, they must obtain the approval of the Russian central government, that is to say, I owe you money and I owe YOU US debts, but because you are unreasonable first, I will simply take the rubles printed out of my white paper to pay you these debts. Then you take the ruble wherever it is not easy to use, you want to do business with me no way, you are not friendly to the country, I am not allowed. There is no way, in the face of the Western world's wave of harsh sanctions, Russia can only adopt these almost rogue, but effective response methods.
But we also know that these methods will also bring a lot of problems, such as your plane is not returned to others, in the future you want to engage in financial leasing and then buy it is difficult, and even now Boeing Airbus has not provided you with parts, some people say that in the future, russia's more than 500 aircraft lack parts, you can't change what to do? At that time, only two and one, three and two, can be dismantled from other aircraft to maintain the operation of other aircraft. Russia's aviation industry is a big problem in the long run, and after you take rubles to pay off foreign debt, it is impossible for you to borrow foreign debt, and financing is impossible.
But on the other hand, Russia's experience is equivalent to reminding all countries that the Western world, led by the United States, is really possible to use various economic sanctions to oppress you and sanction you, so do many countries need to do some alternative policies? Take the lead in making some preparations to prevent future sanctions that may come. But if this continues, will it further fragment the integration of the global economy? It is really possible to form one economic island after another.
